snowgeek Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 That's what we hoped for with this last storm.......it didn't happen. This time we have the west team (GGEM, NAM looks like it would, UKMET) and the east team (EURO OTS, GFS glancing blow). I think it that the key things to watch are the speed of the southern jet shortwave entering California (I think we want it to move along so it can phase with the energy diving down from Canada) and the placement of the polar vortex in Eastern Canada (I think we want it to slide west.......just not too far west). How many hours will be spent on the computer tracking this one. I remember when JI calculated his hours on the computer to snowfall in inches ratio during a midatlantic slump. It wasn't pretty. yup the ecm gives the MA another snowstorm..Hopefully the models converge in the middle lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 And for my 100th post, I present our latest team member, the good old NOGAPS....Go NAVY!!! Looks like a decent track for Upstaters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 And for my 100th post, I present our latest team member, the good old NOGAPS....Go NAVY!!! Looks like a decent track for Upstaters. Yeah, possibly, though I tend to believe it would be a glancing blow post H144, and most likely I-90 South. The 12z JMA is fairly similar, and this solution is somewhat supportive of the more suppressed / less phased ECM / GFS, albeit a track that is a tad more north / west and a bit more generous on the QPF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 CNYWX guy, you should go ahead and start a new thread for the storm next week IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 yea i agree, its time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 CNYWX guy, you should go ahead and start a new thread for the storm next week IMO You know... Andy and TG have been starting all the storm threads thus far and not many have panned out to this point for the majority of Upstaters and Canadians. Could this really be the reason for storms avoiding Upstate? Maybe we should nominate someone different to start a thread for each potential storm until one of them has their way with us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 You know... Andy and TG have been starting all the storm threads thus far and not many have panned out to this point for the majority of Upstaters and Canadians. Could this really be the reason for storms avoiding Upstate? Maybe we should nominate someone different to start a thread for each potential storm until one of them has their way with us... Yea i was thinking the same thing before, no disrespect to TG and andy ofcourse..But maybe u are the chosen one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 You know... Andy and TG have been starting all the storm threads thus far and not many have panned out to this point for the majority of Upstaters and Canadians. Could this really be the reason for storms avoiding Upstate? Maybe we should nominate someone different to start a thread for each potential storm until one of them has their way with us... go ahead and do it dude just post some maps and we are good to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 You know... Andy and TG have been starting all the storm threads thus far and not many have panned out to this point for the majority of Upstaters and Canadians. Could this really be the reason for storms avoiding Upstate? Maybe we should nominate someone different to start a thread for each potential storm until one of them has their way with us... Maybe you're on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Maybe I will get a few inches of LES behind the Clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The next coastal is going to take a similar track to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yea i was thinking the same thing before, no disrespect to TG and andy ofcourse..But maybe u are the chosen one.. go ahead and do it dude just post some maps and we are good to go! Maybe you're on to something Alright, I'm on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 With a track like this we just need an expansive precip shield and we'll be fine, although this last storm looked like it was going to be larger in the long range than it was. More digging would be a good thing with the NOGAPS to help pull it north more. Lots of possibilities on the table at this point. Yeah, possibly, though I tend to believe it would be a glancing blow post H144, and most likely I-90 South. The 12z JMA is fairly similar, and this solution is somewhat supportive of the more suppressed / less phased ECM / GFS, albeit a track that is a tad more north / west and a bit more generous on the QPF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 we also need a new Upstate NY/North Country Winter Thread III someone from upstate should go ahead and do that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I see the EC is showing a lot of arctic 850 hPa air for the latter part of next week....I hope it's right, I would like to see at least one good LES event before we start to mow the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Even though I agree with you, your confidence makes me sad . Unless you're using reverse psychology with the weather gods. The next coastal is going to take a similar track to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Did it. Let's see if I'm good luck. I'm wearing my lucky underwear. we also need a new Upstate NY/North Country Winter Thread III someone from upstate should go ahead and do that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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