Upstate NY/North Country Winter Thread II

[LakeEffectKing]

More freezing drizzle this morning. There has been quite a bit of that the past 2 weeks or so. Nothing ever heavy, but enough to ice over windsheilds, etc. Anyone have any idea what would be causing that?

When low level moisture becomes trapped under a low inversion (cap) and the temperatures are outside the snow growth area, you get essentially supercooled tiny water droplets, that are quasi suspended near the ground. Essentially we are just below a shallow cloud with the heaviest particles settling out of them, and freezing on contact.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Interesting that Jan/Feb 1934 had such severe cold - the 30's always comes up in global warming talk as being one of the warmest decades on record.

I imagine it would have been difficult, if not impossible, to confirm that the entire lake was frozen in the 19th and early 20th centuries in the days before air travel and satellites....

They were, which makes this winter all the more anomolous. I wonder whether it was a La Nina or neutral year? 1931-32 and 1932-33 were quite mild and summer 1933 was quite hot which must have made teh following winter a real shock to the system.

[Logan11]

This brings back memories of the late Norm Sebastien (former ALB TV Met who died way too young) and his kidding the NWS about some "broken ruler" snowfall measurements back in the early/mid 90's at some point.

slantsticker ?

[Logan11]

We have been getting a mix of very light snow grains and freezing drizzle..... 28 outside now. This is extremely light, but has left everything with a light glaze.

When low level moisture becomes trapped under a low inversion (cap) and the temperatures are outside the snow growth area, you get essentially supercooled tiny water droplets, that are quasi suspended near the ground. Essentially we are just below a shallow cloud with the heaviest particles settling out of them, and freezing on contact.

[Logan11]

Well my Dad always loved to tell us about how his 6th B-Day was the coldest day in NYC history. At the time they lived in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn. But the family escaped from Brooklyn. First getting property for a summer place in Saugerties in 1943, winterizing it and moving up in 1952 and then up here starting in 2004.

quote name='Ottawa Blizzard' timestamp='1293637472' post='202664']

They were, which makes this winter all the more anomolous. I wonder whether it was a La Nina or neutral year? 1931-32 and 1932-33 were quite mild and summer 1933 was quite hot which must have made teh following winter a real shock to the system.

[LakeEffectKing]

Trying to keep some hope during these quiet times, but the GFS has steadily placed more and more emphasis on a developing wave on the front that comes through this weekend, and now provides accumulating snows for ENY;

[Flying MXZ]

When low level moisture becomes trapped under a low inversion (cap) and the temperatures are outside the snow growth area, you get essentially supercooled tiny water droplets, that are quasi suspended near the ground. Essentially we are just below a shallow cloud with the heaviest particles settling out of them, and freezing on contact.

Thanks! That cloud level here is ~2500' as the "mountain" I can see from my place tops out at 2600' and the very top is in the clouds. And similar to Logan's there is snow grains/sleet/some kind of frozen water falling. Very light, but enough for the NWS to issue a WWA.

[manhattanandcatskills]

The reason it isn't depicted is because your area is in the Delaware watershed and that map doesn't cover it. Thus most of Delaware County is always blank on that particular map.

Thanks, Logan. I really enjoy your posts...thanks for sharing your insights often. It took me longer than I thought to scrape the windshield today to get into town, but it wasn't bad.

[WNYLakeEffect]

Some met posted this on wivbs blog "Steve McLaughlin, a long time meteorologist with the NWS in Buffalo, has been quoted several times in area newspapers saying “we live in a mesoscale mecca but a synoptic desert”, meaning that we get ample lake effect events but little in the way of big area-wide snow events. Last year and this year (so far) fit that quote well."

I think that's only partially correct.

Thinking back over the past decade for the western WNY counties:

2000-01-No huge storms, one moderate storm in mid-March

2001-02-None

2002-03-Southern areas got 3-8" from PDII, other than that, nothing

2003-04-St. Patrick's Day- 8-14"

2004-05-6-10" Blizzard of '05, 6-26" in the early April storm.

2005-06-Elevation storm 1/25-26, 6-14"

2006-07-V-day 8-16"

2007-08-Mid December 8-16", March 8-9th 10-26"

2008-09-December 19th 4-16", January 27-28th 6-14"

2009-10-Highly localized 8-26" at the end of February

Further back in history...

Mid Apr 1894- 20-30" in Allegheny county

April 19-21, 1901- Dropped 35" in Westfield, 22.5" in Jamestown, 9.7" in Buffalo

Feb 1910- Two storms? that dropped 10-18" (this time period is...ugh.)

St.Patrick's Day 1936- 34" in Corry, PA (near Clymer, NY), 26" in Jamestown, 18" in Buffalo, ratios at or below 10:1

Mar 1942- 8-16"

Dec 1944-12-24", Toronto's largest storm on record.

Nov 1950- 10-30" in SW areas (rain north, snow south)

Nov 1953- 10-18"

Mar 1954- 10-20" Northern areas

Feb 13-14, 1960- 8-18"

Feb 19-20, 1960- 6-30"+

Feb 1961- Haven't totaled yet, 15" in Jamestown

Jan 22-23, 1966- The most giving storm in WNY history, IMO. Everyone had >8". 24"+ in a few places.

Feb 1971- 6-20"

Mar 1971- 2-20", 35" in Sherman

Apr 1975- 1" to as much as 38", there's probably lake influence in this

Dec 6-11, 1977- It's almost impossible separate the multiple systems and lake effect. Generally 30" in most places, but as low as 15.2" in Wellsville or as high as 65" in Sherman.

Dec 25-27, 1978- From 4-6" along the lake shore, to 12-24" inland, and 30"+ in Allegheny county.

Feb 25-26, 1979- <8" Niagara Frontier and low elevations, to 12-24"+ higher elevations.

Feb 1984- 12-30", Buffalo's largest synoptic storm on record.

~~~After this records are rough~~~

Dec 1991- Up to 30" in the Jamestown area?...records are crap.

Dec 1992- 8-16"

Mar 1993- 2-24"

Nov 1995- 6-24"

Jan 1996- 10-18"

Mar 1999- Huge for the ROC area

These are the more significant ones. There are MANY, MANY more minor storms.

By mid January my storm database website should be ready. It's taking a bit longer because I'm doing the HTML myself and am not using CSS, so it's pretty simple. It gets the job done and that's what matters.The above should all be mapped and totaled by then (most have been already).

[Buffalo Bumble]

I think that's only partially correct.

Great info WNYLakeEffect. Look forward to seeing that storm database website. Curious about that February 1984 storm - imagine it was an inland runner with those snow totals...

[Buffalo Bumble]

One good thing about the upcoming warmup is it should put a temporary hold on the L Erie icing process. Some decent ice coverage in the south basin already. I imagine we'll see this spread pretty quickly to the north with any sustained cold after the warmup. Looks like the ice is starting to fill in on Georgian Bay also.

[WNYLakeEffect]

Great info WNYLakeEffect. Look forward to seeing that storm database website. Curious about that February 1984 storm - imagine it was an inland runner with those snow totals...

The low started near Wichita Falls, TX, went to the LA/MS/AR tristate area, then the OH/KY/WV tristate (992mb now), then S-Central PA, and up to the VT/Canada border(@984mb).

Daily Weather Maps: http://docs.lib.noaa...ather_maps.html

NWS BUF:

1984

An intense low pressure system which developed over the Central Plains brought over two feet of snow and strong gusty winds to western New York. The first statement issued by the National Weather Service released during the afternoon of Sunday February 26th headlined more wintry weather headed for western New York. Early Monday morning..February 27th ..a Winter Storm Watch was posted for all of western and central New York. Later that afternoon the Watch was upgraded to a Warning. Snow began falling at the Buffalo Airport about 5:30pm on the 27th and before ending on the 29th, 28.3 inches had fallen. Reports received from throughout western New York ranged from one to three feet. The Niagara Falls-North Tonawanda areas being the hardest hit. Travel was almost completely stopped. A State of Emergency was declared in Niagara county prohibiting all travel. Virtually all area schools and businesses were closed on the 28th and 29th. Buffalo International Airport was closed for 36 hours as crews were unable to keep runways clear for safe landings and takeoffs. Northwest winds averaging about 20 miles an hour and gusts about 35 mph caused blowing and drifting snow reducing visibilities to near zero at times. Eight deaths were attributed to the storm including the death of two sisters due to carbon monoxide poisoning when their car became stranded in a snowbank. A number of records were broken by the storm including...the maximum snowfall in a 24 hour period for the month of February: 19.4 inches fell from Monday evening through Tuesday evening. The old record of 16.1 inches set Feb. 10th and 11th, 1910 was easily surpassed. It was the 5th largest 24 hour snowfall total for Buffalo. Snowfall of 4.2 inches on the 27th tied the record for maximum snowfall for that date and snowfall of 18.4 inches and 5.7 inches on the 28th and 29th, respectively, set new records for those dates. Melted snow of 1.74 inches set the record for maximum precipitation ever recorded on February 28th.

http://www.erh.noaa....climo/FEB29.htm

I also forgot one storm and it was a big one:

Feb 27-Mar 2, 1900

30" in Lockport and Brockport. 40" or more in Rochester according to the New York Times.

[Buffalo Bumble]

The low started near Wichita Falls, TX, went to the LA/MS/AR tristate area, then the OH/KY/WV tristate (992mb now), then S-Central PA, and up to the VT/Canada border(@984mb).

Daily Weather Maps: http://docs.lib.noaa...ather_maps.html

NWS BUF:

http://www.erh.noaa....climo/FEB29.htm

I also forgot one storm and it was a big one:

Feb 27-Mar 2, 1900

30" in Lockport and Brockport. 40" or more in Rochester according to the New York Times.

Yep, can't ask for a better track than that for a big WNY snowstorm. I'll bet our S Ontario friends had a nice hit from that storm as well. BTW - thanks for posting the link to the historic weather maps. It's intersting to look over the upper air patterns that spawn some of these big historic storm.

[Tornado Girl]

This map illustrates well the snow drought in the typical snowmobiling areas. Head over to the far eastern areas of the state/bordering NE for any decent depth it would seem. Saw some guys on the wooded trails around here yesterday where we have 8 to 10", but I wouldn't call that very good.

Note the white areas may have some snow, but the map doesn't include the Ohio, Chesapeake, Delaware and Ramapo estuaries.

Very revealing map...Thanks for sharing

[Tornado Girl]

This brings back memories of the late Norm Sebastien (former ALB TV Met who died way too young) and his kidding the NWS about some "broken ruler" snowfall measurements back in the early/mid 90's at some point.

Sounds like he was a very interesting person....The NWS was using a broken ruler or he was?

[Organizing Low]

Very revealing map...Thanks for sharing

wow most of NY state is getting hosed bigtime!

we havent had much snow here, but at least what we have had we have mostly kept and it has been full snowcover for several weeks.....that could be threatened soon enough...

[Tornado Girl]

Well my Dad always loved to tell us about how his 6th B-Day was the coldest day in NYC history. At the time they lived in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn. But the family escaped from Brooklyn. First getting property for a summer place in Saugerties in 1943, winterizing it and moving up in 1952 and then up here starting in 2004.

quote name='Ottawa Blizzard' timestamp='1293637472' post='202664']

They were, which makes this winter all the more anomolous. I wonder whether it was a La Nina or neutral year? 1931-32 and 1932-33 were quite mild and summer 1933 was quite hot which must have made teh following winter a real shock to the system.

Very true, Before there was this thing called global warming, there were the dust bowl years of the 1930s, The decade is also known as "The Dirty Thirties." Record-setting heat waves and drought plagued the U.S. during much of the 1930s. The Thirties was and still is the warmest decade in US history. There were Three years during the decade that were particularly brutal 1930, 1934, and 1936. The year 1934 was a very hot year in the United States and in northern Europe, ranking third behind 2006 and 1998. The North American heat wave of 1936 was the most severe heat wave in modern North American history. The heat wave started just after the middle of June, when temperatures across the United States exceeded 100 degrees and lasted well into September. Many City's set records in 1934 and 1936 that still stand today. One fact that is ironic is the hot summers of 1934 and 1936 were followed by winters with record cold.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Yep, can't ask for a better track than that for a big WNY snowstorm. I'll bet our S Ontario friends had a nice hit from that storm as well. BTW - thanks for posting the link to the historic weather maps. It's intersting to look over the upper air patterns that spawn some of these big historic storm.

We certainly did. Over a foot of snow fell in Ottawa. The prime minister at the time, Pierre Trudeau, took a walk in the blizzard and decided it was time to retire. Absolutely perfect track for a mjor storm in these parts.

Slightly off topic, but it was funny when I was crossing the border yesterday. Told the border guard that we planned to go to Goat Island to see the falls. He seemed bemused, wondering why we would want to see the falls on "such a cold day". He must have been thinking, "those crazy Canadians".

[Couchsachraga]

Perhaps I am mis-reading the "Current Snow Depth" map, or mis-understanding what it is trying to portray, but for the areas I am familiar with (southern tip of Warren County and central to northern Warren County) we have 1-2" of snow on the ground at this point. Total accumulation from storms before melting, subsidence, and settling might come close to the figures portrayed... but even there they are a bit high.

[roady]

I've found this map to be fairly accurate.

http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/interactive/html/map.html?mode=pan&extents=us&zoom=&center_x=++-75.71&center_y=++42.59&ql=station&var=ssm_depth&dy=2010&dm=12&dd=29&dh=13&snap=1&o4=1&o5=1&o6=1&o11=1&o9=1&o12=1&o13=1&lbl=m&o7=1&min_x=-79.458333333335&min_y=39.775000000001&max_x=-71.958333333336&max_y=45.4&coord_x=-75.708333333335&coord_y=42.5875&zbox_n=&zbox_s=&zbox_e=&zbox_w=&metric=0&bgvar=dem&no_header=1&width=600&height=450&nw=600&nh=450&h_o=0&font=0&js=1&uc=0&zoom7.x=11&zoom7.y=9

You can zoom in and play with the dates and other neat things.

[Wx4cast]

Sounds like he was a very interesting person....The NWS was using a broken ruler or he was?

Norm was very interesting. We used to "harass" each other with annoying e-mails by forwarding crank e-mails that each of us received to the other. Same with phone calls from viewers (the crank ones) we would give these folks the other's "private" work number saying that the other was the "expert" on such weather phenomena.

Occasionally we will make bets with the local NWS office on snow amounts for Albany. Now since the NWS takes the measurement at CESTM we would always joke and bet reluctantly.

Well anyway Norm and the NWS forecasters bet on a snowstorm. Winner would get a bucket of wings. Well Norm lost not by much but he was in disbelief on the measuring. Anyway, he paid the bet off; one bucket of wings to ALB NWSFO. Except Norm ordered the bucket of the most intensely hot wings possible. In essence the wings were not edible!

Very true, Before there was this thing called global warming, there were the dust bowl years of the 1930s, The decade is also known as "The Dirty Thirties." Record-setting heat waves and drought plagued the U.S. during much of the 1930s. The Thirties was and still is the warmest decade in US history. There were Three years during the decade that were particularly brutal 1930, 1934, and 1936. The year 1934 was a very hot year in the United States and in northern Europe, ranking third behind 2006 and 1998. The North American heat wave of 1936 was the most severe heat wave in modern North American history. The heat wave started just after the middle of June, when temperatures across the United States exceeded 100 degrees and lasted well into September. Many City's set records in 1934 and 1936 that still stand today. One fact that is ironic is the hot summers of 1934 and 1936 were followed by winters with record cold.

Haven't heard that term used in ages. Growing up in NYC there was a TV weathercaster, Tex Antoine who oft used that term a lot.

[Catskills]

Haven't heard that term used in ages. Growing up in NYC there was a TV weathercaster, Tex Antoine who oft used that term a lot.

So you must remember Uncle Weatherbee's Weather Almanac.

[Wx4cast]

So you must remember Uncle Weatherbee's Weather Almanac.

Sure do and I remember my mother dressing us according to whatever Uncle Weatherbee wore.

[FEFD17]

Norm was very interesting. We used to "harass" each other with annoying e-mails by forwarding crank e-mails that each of us received to the other. Same with phone calls from viewers (the crank ones) we would give these folks the other's "private" work number saying that the other was the "expert" on such weather phenomena.

Occasionally we will make bets with the local NWS office

on snow amounts for Albany. Now since the NWS takes the measurement at CESTM we would always joke and bet

reluctantly.

Well anyway Norm and the NWS forecasters bet on a

snowstorm. Winner would get a bucket of wings. Well

Norm lost not by much but he was in disbelief on themeasuring. Anyway, he paid the bet off; one bucket ofwings to ALB NWSFO. Except Norm ordered the bucket of the most intensely hot wings possible. In essence the

wings were not edible!

I was just thinking about him the last few weeks.I never knew he was sick until his passing.He left us way too young and far too soon!

[danno]

I've found this map to be fairly accurate.

http://www.nohrsc.nw....x=11&zoom7.y=9

You can zoom in and play with the dates and other neat things.

Thanks Roady - that just got bookmarked! Very cool!

[ayuud]

is the gfs up to something? it shows some frigid air by the end of the run moving toward the east

0z

06z

Euro also

[Logan11]

Thanks for that nice recollection Andy. I wondered what whole thing between him and the NWS over snow measurements was about....now we know the inside story.

Norm was very interesting. We used to "harass" each other with annoying e-mails by forwarding crank e-mails that each of us received to the other. Same with phone calls from viewers (the crank ones) we would give these folks the other's "private" work number saying that the other was the "expert" on such weather phenomena.

Occasionally we will make bets with the local NWS office on snow amounts for Albany. Now since the NWS takes the measurement at CESTM we would always joke and bet reluctantly.

Well anyway Norm and the NWS forecasters bet on a snowstorm. Winner would get a bucket of wings. Well Norm lost not by much but he was in disbelief on the measuring. Anyway, he paid the bet off; one bucket of wings to ALB NWSFO. Except Norm ordered the bucket of the most intensely hot wings possible. In essence the wings were not edible!

Haven't heard that term used in ages. Growing up in NYC there was a TV weathercaster, Tex Antoine who oft used that term a lot.

[Stash]

I actually thought the same thing the first time I came up here well over a decade ago now, haha. Now it seems to be the opposite...or ALB is just running into lots of bad luck. Looks like they officially recorded a little over 8" for the coastal blizzard...most other areas from ALB on east/south had 10"+. I managed a hair over 6" out here, which I'll gladly take.

This also reminds me of an on-air met in the Albany market...I think he was on FOX, where on one broadcast he used the '93 Superstorm as ALB's largest storm on record as he "did not believe" the measurement from March of 1888. Kind of surprising in that if anything, I would thing the way of measuring back then would lend to underreporting snowfall amounts...in any case, he's no longer in the area.

This brings back memories of the late Norm Sebastien (former ALB TV Met who died way too young) and his kidding the NWS about some "broken ruler" snowfall measurements back in the early/mid 90's at some point.

[Logan11]

I have seen photographs from around ALB after the Blizzard of '88 and it looked pretty legitimate to me.

I actually thought the same thing the first time I came up here well over a decade ago now, haha. Now it seems to be the opposite...or ALB is just running into lots of bad luck. Looks like they officially recorded a little over 8" for the coastal blizzard...most other areas from ALB on east/south had 10"+. I managed a hair over 6" out here, which I'll gladly take.

This also reminds me of an on-air met in the Albany market...I think he was on FOX, where on one broadcast he used the '93 Superstorm as ALB's largest storm on record as he "did not believe" the measurement from March of 1888. Kind of surprising in that if anything, I would thing the way of measuring back then would lend to underreporting snowfall amounts...in any case, he's no longer in the area.

[Stash]

Have one on my wall at home actually, so I completely agree. Also matches up well with other totals in ENY and New England. That was his opinion, and he had the forum to express it...but without merit.

I have seen photographs from around ALB after the Blizzard of '88 and it looked pretty legitimate to me.