Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 My Blog very interesting read. Do you see any snow for my area out of this? Henry Margusity seems to think the high ratios might give us 2-3" in Ontario, but I don't know how much faith I'd put in that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ottawa airport reporting light snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Is that some lake effect off of erie embedded in the SN- from the synoptic storm? There is a thin band of higher returns located east of Toronto. Interesting. It's actually the L. Ontario band from earlier in the day that retrograded and sat over the center of the lake....then the weak souther llv flow shoved it north-north westward.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 man this is frustrating. Every storm is missing us to the south, or at least almost every storm. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if the storm this upcoming week also missed us. At this rate, I'm doubtful that Ottawa will make it's seasonal snowfall (90"). It would be nice if we could get a brief burst of snow with arctic front tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 man this is frustrating. Every storm is missing us to the south, or at least almost every storm. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if the storm this upcoming week also missed us. At this rate, I'm doubtful that Ottawa will make it's seasonal snowfall (90"). It would be nice if we could get a brief burst of snow with arctic front tomorrow. I have kept the belief that every year we get AT LEAST 1 BIG synoptic storm. I have given up on that belief as of now. Still all of February and March left though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Exponential improvement on the 0z GFS wrt next week, big shift toward the ECM... 144... 150... 156... 162... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Exponential improvement on the 0z GFS wrt next week, big trend toward the ECM... 144... 150... 156... 162... Yep, looked like a game of chicken in the medium range the last few runs of the Euro and GFS. Looks like the GFS is the first one to blink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Relevent 24-hour QPF off the 0z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 man this is frustrating. Every storm is missing us to the south, or at least almost every storm. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if the storm this upcoming week also missed us. At this rate, I'm doubtful that Ottawa will make it's seasonal snowfall (90"). It would be nice if we could get a brief burst of snow with arctic front tomorrow. hang in there but to be honest i dont see much hope. its an epic snow drought for sure that began in jan 2009. this year seems even worse, as every storm seem makes it to the international border, but apparently they all need passports to cross this year, is there some sort of new law that Immigration passed? cant even scrape out an inch from these 'scraper' storms this year just take comfort in knowing that noone is getting more hosed than you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hmmm... http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Syracuse&state=NY&site=BGM&lat=43.0446&lon=-76.1459 Friday: Snow. High near 24. West wind between 6 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Friday Night: Snow showers. Low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -3. West wind between 9 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yep, looked like a game of chicken in the medium range the last few runs of the Euro and GFS. Looks like the GFS is the first one to blink. yeah its nice to see the GFS come aboard with the idea of a big storm. maybe we'll finally get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Relevent 24-hour QPF off the 0z GFS... There will likely be a sharp cutoff, with Ogdensburg getting a foot, Prescott 4" and Ottawa a trace to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Was surprised to see KSYR w/ the January snowfall total it has. Then I added up mine and they are similar. Doesn't seem like we've had that much snow in January but its been a frequent light/moderate snow feed, mainly from L.O. The 12Z WRF from KBUF looks juicy for No. Onondaga & So. Oswego counties...we'll see if it plays out that way. This latest synoptic snow looks like another yawner for CNY. I think it would be interesting if KSYR could make a run at the seasonal snowfall record (192") w/o ever getting a synoptic snowfall of more than 4 or 5 inches...which is (I think) the most we've had thusfar. I'm kind of rooting for that outcome now - just to say we did it. GooFuS is offering that prospect w/ a steady supply of coastal systems that deliver nada up here for the foreseeable future. Rogue snow band over SW Oswego county today...drove into it heading from Oswego down towards Syracuse this afternoon - quite unexpected. The CIMSS satellite blog has a nice write-up and imagery on today's lake effect band off L Ontario. The ice flows which show up near the St Lawrence R are very cool! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hang in there but to be honest i dont see much hope. its an epic snow drought for sure that began in jan 2009. this year seems even worse, as every storm seem makes it to the international border, but apparently they all need passports to cross this year, is there some sort of new law that Immigration passed? cant even scrape out an inch from these 'scraper' storms this year just take comfort in knowing that noone is getting more hosed than you Checked some traffic cameras and Toronto is deffinately getting snowed on. At the rate we're going, Toronto may finish the season with more snow than Ottawa!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yeah its nice to see the GFS come aboard with the idea of a big storm. maybe we'll finally get lucky. unfortunately it largely misses us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That ridge of high pressure is going to be very strong..... Looks to be 1040 mb - 1050 mb.... During the Overnight Sunday; some places in Northern NY could see -30 or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That ridge of high pressure is going to be very strong..... Looks to be 1040 mb - 1050 mb.... During the Overnight Sunday; some places in Northern NY could see -30 or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That ridge of high pressure is going to be very strong..... Looks to be 1040 mb - 1050 mb.... During the Overnight Sunday; some places in Northern NY could see -30 or lower. Totally agree. I'm thinking Sunday night the 'Dacks to GFL will be -20 to -30F and Sunday's highs only in the low and mid digits and Monday not much better +/- a couple to few degrees of 10. There will also be an arctic boundary sliding south across NNY during Saturday night and Sunday morning. Could be some excellent LES with it along the S and E shores of LO and off of LE up across BUF to IAG, too. This high too will likely induce an inverted trough along the SEUS coast by Tuesday. This trough will in turn act as the "highway for the system next week to move along it or redevelop in it (around Cape Lookout). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The LES band has already started to kickin here in southern oswego county a little earlier than I expected. If it hangs around this area all day we our gonna get hammered again.looks like a exciting day to watch this band get going really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 3.9" here this morning. I'm kinda worried about Monday am and maybe -15° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 3.5" here. Headed to the tug in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 My areas is in the worst screwzone of all wrt snyoptic snows. (Buffalo) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 My areas is in the worst screwzone of all wrt snyoptic snows. (Buffalo) and lake Erie wil be frozen solid by this weekend TEMPERATURES AREEXPECTED TO BE STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND MAY NOT REACH ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT AN EXTREME RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT WILL PLAY OUT WITH LIGHT WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE...A FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEAR SKIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS IS A CLASSIC SETUP THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THOUGH WILL DROP BELOW ZERO THOUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That ridge of high pressure is going to be very strong..... Looks to be 1040 mb - 1050 mb.... During the Overnight Sunday; some places in Northern NY could see -30 or lower. brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://www.cnycentral.com/weather/images/uploaded/snowhighs.JPG 6-12" for Syracuse? Sounds excellent to me, but I don't believe it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 and lake Erie wil be frozen solid by this weekend Unfortunately "the big pond" Lake Erie is just about frozen over. We are somehow managing to get some LES bands in NE OH... but very limited compared to what it could be with open lake. Most likely these bands have an upstream connection to L MI. What I wouldn't give to have the depths of the other lakes so we can benefit from late season LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LES Warning now issued for the entire southern LO shoreline. Anyone have the NAM/WRF/RUC model QPF maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LES Warning now issued for the entire southern LO shoreline. Anyone have the NAM/WRF/RUC model QPF maps? This would be a prime example of why LES watches and warning should take on the same format that Severe Thunderstorms have recently acquired. The Southern half of nearly all of these counties could likely see less than 2 inches from the entire event. It just seems that these highly mesoscale events should have more precise warning system...oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sunny all day here. Band is getting closer though. Both local snowfall maps have said 4-8"/6-12". Other forecasts only have a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Complete whiteout here in southern oswego and very windy. The sun was out then bam whiteout crazy how the weather changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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