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Upstate NY/North Country Winter Thread II


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where's this come from??

Lake Effect Snow Watch

Statement as of 1:42 PM EST on January 20, 2011

...Lake effect snow watch in effect from Friday morning through Saturday morning...

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a lake effect snow watch...which is in effect from Friday morning through Saturday morning.

* Locations: northern Onondaga...northern Madison...and Oneida

counties...mainly along and north of the thruway corridor.

* Hazards: locally heavy lake-effect snow.

* Accumulations: 6 to 12 inches of snow possible...in more

persistent bands.

* Timing: a band of lake-effect snow is expected to enter the

southern Tug Hill region late Friday morning...slowly shifting

southward into the Syracuse...Rome...and Utica areas during the

afternoon hours. Lake snows should continue Friday night...and

into Saturday morning.

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Well another lake effect snow watch for Onondaga...but northern. Looks like Syracuse will get shafted again.

Considering you are on the doorstep of your seasonal average on Jan 20 I ask how much is enough?

And try using this thread next time.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/4949-the-official-upstate-new-yorkpennsylvania-whinecomplaintwheresmysnow-thread/:rolleyes:

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The LES setup for tomorrow through Sat. will overproduce, IMO, for Oswego Co.

Many models have had a lagging trough to the north of L. Ontario, that will ooze southward across the lake. With equil. heights expected to remain fairly high for the first half of the event, I'd look for some of the best snowfall rates of the season for portions of Oswego Co. (thinking C portions early on, and drifting southward, but not quickly)

Someone will end up with over 2' in a relatively short period of time.

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Considering you are on the doorstep of your seasonal average on Jan 20 I ask how much is enough?

And try using this thread next time.

http://www.americanw...smysnow-thread/:rolleyes:

I think his comment was relative to how "little" the city itself (official measurements are take about 6 miles to the north) has received over the last few LES advisories/warnings that have been put out by the NWS BGM. SU has a few meager inches over the last few LES events while up in the N. part of the county there has been a substantial fall of snow in early Jan, thus far.

But relative to many, his post probably sounded like a spoiled brat! ;):thumbsup: But he really hasn't been "too" spoiled.....it's all relative!

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I think his comment was relative to how "little" the city itself (official measurements are take about 6 miles to the north) has received over the last few LES advisories/warnings that have been put out by the NWS BGM. SU has a few meager inches over the last few LES events while up in the N. part of the county there has been a substantial fall of snow in early Jan, thus far.

But relative to many, his post probably sounded like a spoiled brat! ;):thumbsup: But he really hasn't been "too" spoiled.....it's all relative!

I'm closing in on 80 most of it FES snow and I feel jipped. The snow pac just seems to disappear and fall back to the same 6-10" cover each week no matter how much it snows. After all the rain on Tue. things might hold a little better in the future.:thumbsup:

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(official measurements are take about 6 miles to the north)

Wow, no wonder KSYR is always beating out KROC and KBUF every year. As we all know, a few miles for LES can make all the difference. If we moved the measurements of KROC 6 miles to the north and KBUF 6 miles to the south I think their averages would increase...

I wonder what KSYR seasonal average would be if the measurements were actually taken close to the city itself...hmm...

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Wow, no wonder KSYR is always beating out KROC and KBUF every year. As we all know, a few miles for LES can make all the difference. If we moved the measurements of KROC 6 miles to the north and KBUF 6 miles to the south I think their averages would increase...

I wonder what KSYR seasonal average would be if the measurements were actually taken close to the city itself...hmm...

I'd guesstimate around 10-15" less.....there certainly are times on a NNW flow that the airport gets nada, and downtown scores several inches, but that only serves to off set a bit the obvious benefit of being closer to the "single band' threshold limit, up near the Onondaga/Oswego Co. border.

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I noticed on KBUFs HWO this AM that they mentioned potential significant LES accumulations for the western LO shoreline counties (Niag, Orl, Mon) for Friday and Sat (which I didn't get since the winds seemed to be too westerly). Now with the new package, it's actually the eastern LO shoreline counties that are under the watch (which makes more sense).

Any ideas?

From the KBUF AM HWO:

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE

INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN LAKE

ONTARIO SHORELINE FROM NIAGARA COUNTY EASTWARD TO MONROE COUNTY

COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

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I noticed on KBUFs HWO this AM that they mentioned potential significant LES accumulations for the western LO shoreline counties (Niag, Orl, Mon) for Friday and Sat (which I didn't get since the winds seemed to be too westerly). Now with the new package, it's actually the eastern LO shoreline counties that are under the watch (which makes more sense).

Any ideas?

From the KBUF AM HWO:

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE

INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN LAKE

ONTARIO SHORELINE FROM NIAGARA COUNTY EASTWARD TO MONROE COUNTY

COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

The area between Niagara and Monroe counties are in a favorable location for a L. Ontario band that has it's origins along the lakeshore, to deposit pretty decent snows in those mentioned areas. (Esp. the northern portions of those counties.) A lake shore band will typically derive most of it's moisture from the northerly component inflow, and thus the actual convergence may reside several miles inland, without the band falling apart.

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Does Syracuse get in on any action with the lake effect? I don't really expect anything. Maybe an inch or two. Tomorrows synoptic system is a general 2-4" for all of us. The cold weather Sunday should be fun though at least.

Fairly close call, but I'm leaning toward the city getting 4 or so inches tonight, then a quick squall sometime tomorrow afternoon/evening, then cold and dry the rest of the weekend.

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NYZ004>006-008-210400-

/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.110121T1500Z-110122T1700Z/

WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE

250 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH

SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH

SATURDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...OSWEGO...AND

SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES WITH UP TO 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT

BANDS.

* WINDS (OPTIONAL)...WEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH CREATING EXTENSIVE

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES (OPTIONAL)...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE.

* IMPACTS...HIGH.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS

POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

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Here's a good afd update... extreme Cold AND Snow (Heavy?). Hopefully the 12z Euro is onto something with next week...:whistle:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

300 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE COLDEST AIR WE`VE SEEN IN SEVERAL WINTERS IN ON THE WAY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE XNTDD PD. 12Z MON... 1032MB HIPRES NORTH OF THE LAKES SLIDES EWRD BRINGING A LGT NE FLOW WHICH IS IDEAL FOR ALLOWING THE COLDEST AIR INTO THE FCST AREA...DRY AND UNMODIFIED BY THE LAKES. XPCT MINUS TEENS ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS MINUS 20 OR LWR IN THE WRN CATS AND THE TUG HILL. FINGER LAKES AND WEST WILL SEE SOME MODIFICATION AND WILL BE CLSR TO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS AS WILL PARTS OF NE PA.

HIPRES SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS A DVLPG CSTL SYSTEM TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS TUE. GFS APRNTLY IS STRUGGLING WITH A SW US TROF AND HAS BEEN REJECTED AS A SOLN WHILE THE EURO MVES THE DEEPENING LOW TO NEAR CAPE MAY BY 12Z WED. H5 LOW TRACKS THRU SRN PA AND PUTS OUR AREA IN A FVRBL AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW TUE NGT AND WED. AS USUAL...DETAILS ARE DFCLT AT THIS RANGE BUT CERTAINLY A CHANCE OF SNOW JUSTIFIED IN THE FCST.

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Fairly close call, but I'm leaning toward the city getting 4 or so inches tonight, then a quick squall sometime tomorrow afternoon/evening, then cold and dry the rest of the weekend.

Probably best anyway considering 33,000+ are going to be heading to the Dome on Saturday Morning. Need a bounce back win against 'Nova...

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Probably best anyway considering 33,000+ are going to be heading to the Dome on Saturday Morning. Need a bounce back win against 'Nova...

Yes....A big win would hold us in the top 5, and help position ourselves for one of the top seeds come tournament time. Hopefully KJ can contribute, but honestly, the loss of him for the Pitt game may have helped give guys like CJ and Sutherland a bit of a confidence boost going into the home stretch...

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And the snow pack continues to build...looking for a nice 3-6" tomorrow of fluff that will probably compact down to 1" under the next snowfall. Speaking of next snowfall, there are signs of a good event next Wednesday. Over on DT's site (wxrisk.com) he mentions a strong storm either hugging the coast or running slightly inland over NE now that the NAO has relaxed.

Looking forward to Andy or TG starting the next thread on that with their initial opinions.

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And the snow pack continues to build...looking for a nice 3-6" tomorrow of fluff that will probably compact down to 1" under the next snowfall. Speaking of next snowfall, there are signs of a good event next Wednesday. Over on DT's site (wxrisk.com) he mentions a strong storm either hugging the coast or running slightly inland over NE now that the NAO has relaxed.

Looking forward to Andy or TG starting the next thread on that with their initial opinions.

My Blog

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Bgm going pretty high for utica between the synoptic and LES

Tonight: Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 12. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Friday: Snow. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as -5. Light wind becoming west between 13 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Friday Night: Snow showers. Low around -1. Wind chill values as low as -15. West wind between 10 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

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Here's a good afd update... extreme Cold AND Snow (Heavy?). Hopefully the 12z Euro is onto something with next week...:whistle:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

300 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE COLDEST AIR WE`VE SEEN IN SEVERAL WINTERS IN ON THE WAY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE XNTDD PD. 12Z MON... 1032MB HIPRES NORTH OF THE LAKES SLIDES EWRD BRINGING A LGT NE FLOW WHICH IS IDEAL FOR ALLOWING THE COLDEST AIR INTO THE FCST AREA...DRY AND UNMODIFIED BY THE LAKES. XPCT MINUS TEENS ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS MINUS 20 OR LWR IN THE WRN CATS AND THE TUG HILL. FINGER LAKES AND WEST WILL SEE SOME MODIFICATION AND WILL BE CLSR TO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS AS WILL PARTS OF NE PA.

HIPRES SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS A DVLPG CSTL SYSTEM TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS TUE. GFS APRNTLY IS STRUGGLING WITH A SW US TROF AND HAS BEEN REJECTED AS A SOLN WHILE THE EURO MVES THE DEEPENING LOW TO NEAR CAPE MAY BY 12Z WED. H5 LOW TRACKS THRU SRN PA AND PUTS OUR AREA IN A FVRBL AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW TUE NGT AND WED. AS USUAL...DETAILS ARE DFCLT AT THIS RANGE BUT CERTAINLY A CHANCE OF SNOW JUSTIFIED IN THE FCST.

NWS BUF..:shiver:

TEMPS WILL

STRUGGLE TO 10 ABOVE AT BEST...HOLDING NEAR ZERO E OF LK ONTARIO.

SUN NIGHT WILL BE FRIGID...COLDEST NIGHT IN SEVERAL YEARS. CLEAR

SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX COOLING UNDER A 1034 MB

HIGH. LOOK FOR COLD SPOTS IN JEFF/LEWIS COUNTIES TO REACH -30! EVEN

IN WESTERN NY...BUF AND ROC WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...PERHAPS 5 TO 10

BELOW...WITH SRN TIER INTO MINUS TEENS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT

HOWEVER.-- End Changed Discussion --

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4 inches of fluff today.

I was shocked to come home to 9" in the driveway. It's the real light fake-effect, but it sure makes everything pretty! I went for a small sled ride with the chainsaw to take care of a few spears near the trail and found that very little of the snow made it through areas of thick pines....maybe 2-3". Fingers are crossed for another 9" tonight/tomorrow!

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