CNYWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Talk about eye candy... Deformation axis right over I-81, BGM to ART buried.... one of these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Talk about eye candy... Deformation axis right over I-81, BGM to ART buried.... one of these days Add the new 0z Euro to the mix, looks like a similar solution, perhaps just a tad more to the east. The CMC / Euro are about as close to identical twins at Hour 168 as 2 models can be for 7 days out, and not just in terms of LP placement / timing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 For now the Euro looks promising for mid-week next week. Instead of SNE, someplace in Upstate may be under the gun. Even with all these "near miss" systems, our snowpack is building nicely. The lack of a typical "January Thaw" is certainly helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 For now the Euro looks promising for mid-week next week. Instead of SNE, someplace in Upstate may be under the gun. Even with all these "near miss" systems, our snowpack is building nicely. The lack of a typical "January Thaw" is certainly helping. yes this has been key we got that that on dec 30-31 out of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 euro continues to place a bit more emphasis on the northern stream wave for the next storm.....still though has all of NYS south of ART-GFL line in 0.25.0.50 precip for thurs-fri north of there is 0.1-0.25 thanks primarily to the northern stream system, esp in ontario. no precip really here in montreal area. good ratios i imagine should be a nice little event for the southern half of NYS. euro has a coastal storm next week day 7 and beyond. big hit in WNY and southern canada.....with ptype concerns for the rest of the region....verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 euro continues to place a bit more emphasis on the northern stream wave for the next storm.....still though has all of NYS south of ART-GFL line in 0.25.0.50 precip for thurs-fri north of there is 0.1-0.25 thanks primarily to the northern stream system, esp in ontario. no precip really here in montreal area. good ratios i imagine should be a nice little event for the southern half of NYS. euro has a coastal storm next week day 7 and beyond. big hit in WNY and southern canada.....with ptype concerns for the rest of the region....verbatim. I saw this morning's Euro's 168 (bottome) and said "where have I seen that pattern before".......and then I remembered!! Jan 4 1994, the famous SYR "snowburst"....2 consecutive 5"/hr., right during rush hour....: If you take out the SW trough, lots of similarities at h500 at Euro's 168: (but the key here is.........it's still 168 hours out!!! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I saw this morning's Euro's 168 (bottome) and said "where have I seen that pattern before".......and then I remembered!! Jan 4 1994, the famous SYR "snowburst"....2 consecutive 5"/hr., right during rush hour....: If you take out the SW trough, lots of similarities at h500 at Euro's 168: (but the key here is.........it's still 168 hours out!!! ) nice analog..! you must have a memory like ORH (Will) 4-12 inches with that one across E-ontario / Sw quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Several of the 12z GFS Ensemble members have taken to next week's potential event, but as to be expected there is a fairly large spread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 nice analog..! you must have a memory like ORH (Will) 4-12 inches with that one across E-ontario / Sw quebec I remember the Jan 94 system very well (was living in CNY at the time). It was like being in an intense lake effect snow band for 3-4 hours, except it was a solid wall of synoptic snow. Also pretty cool that it came less than a year after the Mar '93 superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 One of the few times this winter that we need the Euro to trend east. It's still too early to worry about the exact track...just seeing the system is good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 nice analog..! you must have a memory like ORH (Will) sieve!!!!! 4-12 inches with that one across E-ontario / Sw quebec LOL! Memory, it's all great unless you can't retrieve it!!! I have a decent "hard drive" capacity, it's just my "RAM" runs with a couple 64MB sticks.....oh well, thank God for the computer, wife, friends, etc. For people looking for nice big EC storms to slam us good (N and W of the Catskills) just look at the h500 charts from previous big storms.....collect them in your head, and sound the bells when you see them pop up in some few day prog....being 7 days out though is more of a "there's potential" than any sort of excitement ignitor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I agree completely, some very textbook looking maps for a Big East Coast event.... I'll be very interested in seeing what the next run does, definite potential here. I saw this morning's Euro's 168 (bottome) and said "where have I seen that pattern before".......and then I remembered!! Jan 4 1994, the famous SYR "snowburst"....2 consecutive 5"/hr., right during rush hour....: If you take out the SW trough, lots of similarities at h500 at Euro's 168: (but the key here is.........it's still 168 hours out!!! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 With the cold are moving back in Fri...looks like areas SE of Ontario could see 2-3 inches of EFS. If there was more moisture and less shear; there would be more..Oh well at least you're getting more than the Tug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 With the cold are moving back in Fri...looks like areas SE of Ontario could see 2-3 inches of EFS. If there was more moisture and less shear; there would be more..Oh well at least you're getting more than the Tug How much snow you have on the ground Tornado Girl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 How much snow you have on the ground Tornado Girl? Not much........23 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not much........23 inches I have 23 cm. Still, I have to say that I am happy with what we've got so far. Ironically, the side streets look more wintry than they would if we'd had a 17" storm given there has been no snow removal, just snow clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Several of the 12z GFS Ensemble members have taken to next week's potential event, but as to be expected there is a fairly large spread... Absolute crap solution for us, but it fits well with the pattern this year. Congrats western MA. There snowbanks must be getting pretty high this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I saw this morning's Euro's 168 (bottome) and said "where have I seen that pattern before".......and then I remembered!! Jan 4 1994, the famous SYR "snowburst"....2 consecutive 5"/hr., right during rush hour....: If you take out the SW trough, lots of similarities at h500 at Euro's 168: (but the key here is.........it's still 168 hours out!!! ) Got to love the mention of January 1994, one of the best winter months ever around here. I remember January 4, 1994. I was in Grade 8, and it was bitterly cold outside at recess. Later that week, Toronto got hit by a big snowstorm that lasted two days, January 6-7,1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yes this has been key we got that that on dec 30-31 out of the way Yes, we haven't been above freezing since New Years. Might be a chance we join January 2009 in breaking the string of mild Januaries in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I have 23 cm. Still, I have to say that I am happy with what we've got so far. Ironically, the side streets look more wintry than they would if we'd had a 17" storm given there has been no snow removal, just snow clearing. How much do you normally have at this time? I should have around 48-50 inches (121-127 cm) on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 How much do you normally have at this time? I should have around 48-50 inches (121-127 cm) on the ground. On average about 50-60cm. Wow, you must live right in the lake effect zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On average about 50-60cm. Wow, you must live right in the lake effect zone. For the most part.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 0z NOGAPS for next week... looks quite similar to last night's ECM / GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Low -5 for Sunday/Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro is absolutely frigid Monday morning. negative 15 to 20 F lows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro is absolutely frigid Monday morning. negative 15 to 20 F lows! Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 overnight modeling trended poorly for next weeks event, though at this range doesnt mean too much a lot of stuff has to go right with the phasing. also we have an east based neg NAO, which is Ok, but a piece of the PV is trying to act as a 50/50 and causing all kinds of suppressive confluence of the NE and lakes. fortunately, its an east based NAO, not a true Greenland block.....so that CAN move out quicker, allowing the PV piece to get out of the way. in addition, the PV is notoriously mishandled from run to run at this range IMO. in the end, we need a lot of things to go right......right now the models are showing some potential, but nothing more. i'm not going to get excited until the models show agreement that trough over the NE moving out quicker and lessening the confluence....otherwise any potential storm will be more of a coastal and HV threat again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like the Tug (At least the southern Tug) Mightl finely get some decent LES starting around Noon tomorrow and going into Saturday. That is if the shar doesn't kill the band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 latest euro is a good hit for everyone right to the internaitonal border with next weeks storm but manages to miss ottawa and montreal completely anyhoo, GFS is world apart and GGEM trended away form op euro towards op GFS.....havent seen ukie past 72. defintely not feeling this event for up here, unless that mess of confuence improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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