Logan11 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Let's hope we can get the -NAO to relax enough for an interior snowstorm...and not so much that we get a cutter..... 12Z Euro (144 hour) looks like another SNE special. Oy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 for the North Country and international border region.. obviously there will be disappointment and frustration yet again misisng another big storm......though it looks as though NVt has done ok. pattern looks promising for continued increased snow chances moving forward, best opening since janaury 2009. i menitoned last week that it was enocuraging seeing the W-E moving systems appearing and not get eaten up by the block. indeed, the past week has featured a change and at least temporary end to the east coast dominated pattern as we see the breakdown of the NAO and slight rise of the AO (at least temporarily if not longer?..)....this was evidenced by the 6 inch snowfall in ottawa over the weekend and 2 clippers last week. dont be fooled by the current storm miss just to our S and E, with snow from toronto through upstate to maine.......this is a return to NORMAL climo and standard storm and snowtrack for this time of year.....NOT the anomalous snow hole reinforcing tracks we have been seeing previously. doesnt mean you cant get screwed by other means, but it wont be by the same ole same ole means.....overall our chances are significantly on the rise for the first time in a long while.....hopefully we can cash in. Good to hear. I'm hopng that we can get something out of the clipper on Sunday, although Don seems to think that we may have a better chance early next week. I would really like to see a classic frontal snow situation, with 3-6" of snow as an arctic front passes through, followed by temperatures falling through the teens and single digets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 NWS BUF "ON LAKE ERIE…COLDER TEMPERATURES (NEAR FREEZING) AND INCREASING ICE COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE TO SOME DEGREE. THIS SAID…A SIGNIFICANT BAND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP…AND MEANDER NEAR THE BUFFALO METRO AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE…BUT FEEL INCREASING ICE COVERAGE AND THE MOBILITY OF THE BAND WILL PREVENT THIS FROM BEING A PROLIFIC SNOW PRODUCER. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER. WHILE FOCUS IS NOT AS GOOD IN A SW FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT OTHER FACTORS TO OFFSET THIS. THINKING A BROADER BUT AT TIMES FAIRLY INTENSE BAND WILL DEVELOP E-NE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...GENERALLY THE TUG HILL NORTH TO WATERTOWN. AS WILL LAKE ERIE...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE." :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 NWS BUF OFF LAKE ONTARIO...TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER. WHILE FOCUS IS NOT AS GOOD IN A SW FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT OTHER FACTORS TO OFFSET THIS. THINKING A BROADER BUT AT TIMES FAIRLY INTENSE BAND WILL DEVELOP E-NE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...GENERALLY THE TUG HILL NORTH TO WATERTOWN. AS WILL LAKE ERIE...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE." :snowman: quite a band running thru Madison County now, having more of a north/south drift than typical LES, looks like more influenced from the coastal low enhanced with elevation/lake?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Yep it extends right over to Albany and seems to be pinwheeling around the storm, but lake enhanced. Moderate snow again here. quite a band running thru Madison County now, having more of a north/south drift than typical LES, looks like more influenced from the coastal low enhanced with elevation/lake?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Good to hear. I'm hopng that we can get something out of the clipper on Sunday, although Don seems to think that we may have a better chance early next week. I would really like to see a classic frontal snow situation, with 3-6" of snow as an arctic front passes through, followed by temperatures falling through the teens and single digets. yeah i agree those are always fun what would be even better is a 6-12 coastal low type synoptic snowfall with strong NW winds on the backside, blowing snow and falling temps......havent had one of those in forever it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 yeah i agree those are always fun what would be even better is a 6-12 coastal low type synoptic snowfall with strong NW winds on the backside, blowing snow and falling temps......havent had one of those in forever it seems. MVHVCZ...models were hinting at it since yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 12Z Euro (144 hour) looks like another SNE special. Oy! As modeled on the GFS and Euro the system probably goes over RI. It's much warmer and brings a mix/rain event to coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I would say I ended up with around solid 8-9".. Snow had a bit of moisture to it, but still pretty light.. I'll take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION... AS OF 320 PM...IT APPEARS MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE IS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS SURFACE WIND FIELDS ARE NOT LINING UP AS OF 655 PM... SNOW PROCESS IS THE COMBINATION OF DEFORMATION...MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE...SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN...AND UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOHAWK HEADING INTO THE CATSKILLS. MVHVCZ...models were hinting at it since yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION... AS OF 320 PM...IT APPEARS MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE IS NOT AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS SURFACE WIND FIELDS ARE NOT LINING UP AS OF 655 PM... SNOW PROCESS IS THE COMBINATION OF DEFORMATION...MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE...SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN...AND UPSLOPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOHAWK HEADING INTO THE CATSKILLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 The deeper snow/biggest banks along I-90 were in the SYR area. I drove it from Canandaigua to Canajoharie last night during the snowstorm. I ended up eating at some place called Pier 57 on the nw edge of SYR off the Thruway...maybe Liverpool area. A couple inches there when I left at 9:50 PM. Slow go then and got home at 12:30 AM, but I like driving in snow. You could have thrown a snowball at my house, and hit it while eating!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Just getting a little light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Sweet UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUSHINGACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS LIMITED...THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT ANY GENERAL SYNOPTIC SNOWS TO BE LIGHT. LAKE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE DOES LOOK TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS WINDS TURN MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. SHOULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM BUFFALO SOUTHWARD. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING A MODEST AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL OMEGA WHICH WILL TAP MIXING RATIOS OF 2-3 G/KG FOR ABOUT 9 HOURS OR SO...YIELDING GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. SNOW TO WATER RATIOS IN THE MID TEENS COULD BOOST THESE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE LAKES WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY. HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS TIME FRAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Sweet It looks like the enhancement will be on the E/NE ends of the lake this time around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It looks like the enhancement will be on the E/NE ends of the lake this time around... sounds perfect 9.5 Inches total so far for this event with an inch of pure fluff falling in the 2 hours. Average snow depth is 11 inches so im hoping for 5-7 inches the next few days so i can get my snowpack up to 16-18 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 2.0" last night and 0.6" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Ahh cool ....I thought maybe you were from Liverpool. Course I couldn't see much in the thick snow. I guess it didn't last that long, but I happened to travel from SYR east to exit 29 during the heaviest band that came through I guess. As for tonight...looks like lots of little multi band things keep streaming through here leaving repeated dustings. Maybe we have .3 or .4 new, but not venturing out to check until morning. 13F now. You could have thrown a snowball at my house, and hit it while eating!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 January to Date ----- Average Jan. Syracuse --- 22.3 ----- 13.9 Albany ----- 21.1 ----- 7.5 Rochester -- 17.9 ----- 10.4 Buffalo ---- 16.3 ----- 11.7 Binghamton - 13.0 ----- 8.7 16.7 has fallen since the 9th. Maybe we can hit 100" with this weekends LES? *EDIT* NVM, just checked some forecasts. Looks like Oswego will take the LE action this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 pattern change continues to remain in place... NAO looks to remain near neutral + PNA spike..... not a bad pattern though ptypes are introduces.....at least there will be some ongoing synoptic action after 2 years of nothing for some areas. EDIT latest 12z models suggesting return on neg NAO and blocking at about day 10 will have to see how that evolves as they have been inconsistent in the LR, althuogh contnuity would favor the neg NAO returning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 LEK/Tornado Girl, who is going to be the big winner on the LES this weekend? Pretty bold totals from BUF of 1 to 2 feet for someone in Oswego. I thought this might be a Redfield special but my guess is that the biggest accumulations may be south of me. I feel we still do ok though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH Oswego, NY Issued at 2:11 PM Friday, January 14, 2011 Expires at 7:00 PM Sunday, January 16, 2011 All Areas Affected: Northern Cayuga, NY | Oswego, NY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 211 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY OSWEGO COUNTY. * TIMING...SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO FEET POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL ALONG I-81 MAY BECOME DIFFICULT BETWEEN SANDY CREEK AND CENTRAL SQUARE. OTHER SECONDARY ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AS WELL. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && ZAFF I HATE sitting on the sidelines watching places near me get crushed while its sunny out -.- Can't complain though, been a great winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Been busy as all heck......I think the band starting tomorrow afternoon will hang just a further north than what NWS Buf is calling for. I see more of a Pulaski-Parish hit and eastward, with the C/S Tug Hill region doing quite fine with the upslope expansion of the band inland, as is always the case with a 270-280 flow. Decent moisture outside the LES in the lower BL will aid also, at least early on.....by very early Sun. morning, the band should shift a bit south into S. Oswego Co. A solid 14-20" looks very good for Mexico, Altmar and points inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Temp droping like a rock with the clear skies at gfl already down to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Temp droping like a rock with the clear skies at gfl already down to 5 Sunday night lotta places will see below zero temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'm sure gfl will get down to around 5 below tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Between the clipper and upslope The Tug is looking good....I agree with LEK on the placement of the LES band It won't be epic but it looks to be a decent amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Temp droping like a rock with the clear skies at gfl already down to 5 It's down to 1 here....It's a throw a log on the fire and hug your honey night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Right now the clipper looks to bring 1-3 inches with 5-6 inches on the Tug.....Then tomorrow night the LES will set up on a 270 to 280 flow bringing another 8-10 inches on to the Southern and Middle Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'm sure gfl will get down to around 5 below tonight! I had a -3 for tonight here. It will be tricky tonight as inc. clouds will probably wreak havoc with mins. They may fll 'til about 2am Sat then steady off or possibly even rise a couple/few degrees. It's down to 1 here....It's a throw a log on the fire and hug your honey night. Hey can I use that term on TV! LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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