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Upstate NY/North Country Winter Thread II


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Statement as of 3:24 PM EST on January 09, 2011

... Lake effect Snow Advisory now in effect until 5 am EST

Monday...

The lake effect Snow Advisory is now in effect until 5 am EST

Monday.

* Locations: Cortland... Chenango... Onondaga... Madison and southern

Cayuga counties including Syracuse... Cazenovia...

Sherburne... Norwich... Truxton... Auburn and Moravia.

* Hazards: moderate lake effect snow showers.

* Accumulations: tonight... snowfall accumulations will range from

3 to 5 inches

* winds: northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph will cause blowing and

drifting snow along with poor visibilities at times.

* Impacts: snow covered and slippery roads.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A lake effect Snow Advisory Means Lake effect snow is forecast

that will make travel difficult in some areas. Lake effect snow

showers typically align themselves in bands and will likely be

intense enough to drop several inches in localized areas. Use

caution when traveling.

Please report snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service by

calling toll free at 1-877-633-6772... or by email at

[email protected].

Mundschenk

Getting hit pretty good here. 2" in the last 1.5 hours....lots of yellows over me on LiveDoppler9

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I posted this in Don Sutherland's thread, but decided to post it here too given it deals with January temperatures in this region:

I have noticed that, during the second half of the last decade, January mean temperatures warmed considerably, with the notable exception of January 2009. Take a look at the list:

January 2001: -9.4C

January 2002: -4.9C

January 2003: -13.5C

January 2004: -15.7C

January 2005: -11.7C

Now take a look at the second half of the decade:

January 2006: -5.7C

January 2007: -7.7C

January 2008: -6.3C

January 2009: -13.6C

January 2010: -7.5C

Quite the significant rise in mean temperature, a pattern which seems to be continuing into the new decade, despite the two cold winters in the US south and mid atlantic. The northern latitudes seem to be warming considerably in January, the coldest month of the year.

For interest's sake, I decided to look at the 1990s decade, supposedly remembered for its warm winters.

January 1990: -4.6C

January 1991: -10.6C

January 1992: -11.6C

January 1993: -9.2C

January 1994: -18.0C (!)

January 1995: -7.0C

January 1996: -11.7C

January 1997: -11.8C

January 1998: -7.9C

January 1999: -10.2C

January 2000: -10.2C

It would appear that Januaries in the 1990s were significantly colder than the late 2000s in Ottawa. Finally, let's look at the 1980s:

January 1980: -9.2C

January 1981: -14.5C

January 1982: -15.9C

January 1983: -8.6C

January 1984: -12.7C

January 1985: -13.5C

January 1986: -9.8C

January 1987: -9.1C

January 1988: -9.1C

January 1989: -7.9C

The 1980s were significantly colder in January than the late 2000s. In the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s, it was noteworthy if Ottawa had a January with a mean temperature warmer than -9.0C. Now it seems to be the other way around.

The trend seems to be continuing this Jnauary, with bitter cold air seemingly unable to make it into this region.

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Unfortunately, 'm starting to suspect that the arctic outbreak next week will be an epic fail.

Which might not be such a bad thing!! The overall NH pattern is not too shabby to provide continuous opportunities for clippers....or EC storms that may or may not stay offshore. I'm always happy with 25 degrees and heavy snow!! :)

Regarding this upcoming system, the NAM, IMO is going to really take the globals to the woodshed this go-around. Something to be said for the higher resolution models, if we get the "very close"to the coast solution to verify. I'm anxiously awaiting the next set of runs....and not to sound weenish, but the last run of most models have been consistently amping, not only the ridge along the EC, but just as importantly (from a mass distribution standpoint) the ridge out behind the system has been slowly strengthening with successive runs.

With the many globals having most if not all of their offspring to the west, and the lastest runs of the RUC continuing to show increasing ridging on both coasts, ENY may be able to substantially increase totals from current thinkings.....

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I was in the Asbury Park, NJ area on Sunday--piles and piles of snow there and a foot or so expected from this next coastal storm.

Meanwhile, I haven't had more than a couple of inches of snow on the ground here all season. Nearly all from the fringes of LES.

Is there any reason NOT to think this pattern will continue for the rest of the winter (ie, coastal storms trending east?)

This is an interesting continuation of last year's pattern of snowstorms on the coast and the interior areas left out of the events (further north this year).

Did I say interesting? I meant frustrating and honestly, annoying! I'm jealous of my brother on Long Island--and that's just pathetic.

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12z Euro...

168...f168.gif

192...

f192.gif

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

436 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UPDATED AS OF 430 PM...

TUESDAY IS LOOKING RATHER INTERESTING AS LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE TIME PERIOD BEYOND THIS FORECAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST A LARGE AND SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR AREA. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT IS A MUCH MORE OPEN WAVE AT THIS TIME. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS HOWEVER BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF. THIS DEFINITELY BEARS CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE FEEL THE NHEMI PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND GEFS SOLUTIONS.

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Now that the snow has just about stopped, it's time to start looking for future threats. Looking like a significant pattern change going into next week with the -NAO disappearing. That should end SNE's run of luck wth snow and hopefully push things further north up into our neck of the woods.

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12Z Euro (144 hour) looks like another SNE special. Oy!

Now that the snow has just about stopped, it's time to start looking for future threats. Looking like a significant pattern change going into next week with the -NAO disappearing. That should end SNE's run of luck wth snow and hopefully push things further north up into our neck of the woods.

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for the North Country and international border region.. obviously there will be disappointment and frustration yet again misisng another big storm......though it looks as though NVt has done ok.

pattern looks promising for continued increased snow chances moving forward, best opening since janaury 2009.

i menitoned last week that it was enocuraging seeing the W-E moving systems appearing and not get eaten up by the block. indeed, the past week has featured a change and at least temporary end to the east coast dominated pattern as we see the breakdown of the NAO and slight rise of the AO (at least temporarily if not longer?..)....this was evidenced by the 6 inch snowfall in ottawa over the weekend and 2 clippers last week.

dont be fooled by the current storm miss just to our S and E, with snow from toronto through upstate to maine.......this is a return to NORMAL climo and standard storm and snowtrack for this time of year.....NOT the anomalous snow hole reinforcing tracks we have been seeing previously.

doesnt mean you cant get screwed by other means, but it wont be by the same ole same ole means.....overall our chances are significantly on the rise for the first time in a long while.....hopefully we can cash in.

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The deeper snow/biggest banks along I-90 were in the SYR area. I drove it from Canandaigua to Canajoharie last night during the snowstorm. I ended up eating at some place called Pier 57 on the nw edge of SYR off the Thruway...maybe Liverpool area. A couple inches there when I left at 9:50 PM. Slow go then and got home at 12:30 AM, but I like driving in snow. :)

Very pleased with the synoptic system. Syracuse did fairly well from what I saw this morning. Plus 2-6" Lake Effect tonight and tomorrow.

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