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Upstate NY/North Country Winter Thread II


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Looks like it was a 30:1 ratio here. One of the higher ones I have seen since I have been living here over the past 24 years.

:sun:

Made 4, 1 on the side lawn, 2 in the backyard and one in the street by my driveway. This one had the desired effect, I heard the plow stop perhaps he thought there was someone in the street as a result I didn't get speed plowed.

I made Six...And you should know better....... don't play in the street.:rolleyes:

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Now we wait and see if we can get a Miller A next week.

And before we get Cards and Letters. Miller A and B storms are named after James E miller. He was a meteorologist who did extensive research along the Mid Atlantic in the 1940's

1 "Miller A" storm consists of one well developed surface low pressure system offshore of the Carolinas where the precipitation is typically either rain or snow as it moves up the coast

2 "Miller B" storm is a very complex" storm that has two distinct low pressure systems; one well inland and a developing coastal low.

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I know this is a weird and off the wall question, but I was just curious. Has Toronto ever experiences an extremely rare ESE wind for Lake Effect snows, and if that would be even possible to form a Lake effect band?

LE bands can form in any direction....it is just much more rare to get a combination of ESE winds with air temps cold enough to get the machine going.

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Now we wait and see if we can get a Miller A next week.

And before we get Cards and Letters. Miller A and B storms are named after James E miller. He was a meteorologist who did extensive research along the Mid Atlantic in the 1940's

1 "Miller A" storm consists of one well developed

surface low pressure system offshore of the Carolinas where the precipitation is typically either rain or snow as it moves up the coast

2 "Miller B" storm is a very complex" storm that has two distinct low pressure systems; one well inland and a developing coastal low.

Do they both produce the same amounts of accumulation if the Qpf amounts are the same?

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Do they both produce the same amounts of accumulation if the Qpf amounts are the same?

In a general way NO they don't . Miller A's form farther south off of the SEUS or the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore their source region of development is a warmer environment, thus these lows can "hold" more moisture.

Miller B's as noted by TG often are secondary redevelopments while sometimes these redevelopments can occur along the Carolina's Coast they often tend to develop in a corridor from Cape Hatteras-to Cape Cod.

Another aside: The amount of QP that a storm produces is more a function of many factors other than purely its source region of development. Duration (is it slowly moving northeast or fast mover), is it weak or strong, blocking patterns etc. are all crucial to the amt of precip that the storm gives.

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Nice band of snow moving south off L Ontario through the Niagara Frontier. Currently have moderate snow -

NYZ010>013-085-082130-

NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-SOUTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...

ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

312 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

.NOW...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR ERIE, GENESEE, WYOMING, AND

LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL

CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AT 3

PM THIS SNOW BAND WAS STILL PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN 1 AND

2 INCHES PER HOUR AS IT ENTERED NORTHERN ERIE AND NORTHERN GENESEE

COUNTIES.

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Nice band of snow moving south off L Ontario through the Niagara Frontier. Currently have moderate snow -

NYZ010>013-085-082130-

NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-SOUTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...

ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

312 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

.NOW...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR ERIE, GENESEE, WYOMING, AND

LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL

CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. AT 3

PM THIS SNOW BAND WAS STILL PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN 1 AND

2 INCHES PER HOUR AS IT ENTERED NORTHERN ERIE AND NORTHERN GENESEE

COUNTIES.

GOD BLESS LAKE ONTARIO :thumbsup::snowman: :snowman: :snowman: :snowman:

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In a general way NO they don't . Miller A's form farther south off of the SEUS or the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore their source region of development is a warmer environment, thus these lows can "hold" more moisture.

Miller B's as noted by TG often are secondary redevelopments while sometimes these redevelopments can occur along the Carolina's Coast they often tend to develop in a corridor from Cape Hatteras-to Cape Cod.

Another aside: The amount of QP that a storm produces is more a function of many factors other than purely its source region of development. Duration (is it slowly moving northeast or fast mover), is it weak or strong, blocking patterns etc. are all crucial to the amt of precip that the storm gives

A Miller B CAN..... Not always will....produce more because of warmer waters? In a nutshell way. Now is there a greater chance of it going to rain givin the warmer air coming from that direction as we have seen previously with this pattern and winter?

And on the other hand, a Miller B can produce Just flurries if it's too fast, limited flow of moisture, ect ( factors).?

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Man that Ontario band just crashed the south shore with a vengeance. It even looks to have a touch or regrowth from the NE winds, but I don't see it lasting long as winds continue to back to the N and NW. Still impressive though with some 40dbz returns here and there.

I'll be driving into that shortly.

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Excellent discussion on today's AFD from Buf

LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TIME AVERAGED

500MB HEIGHT PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 OF THE FORECAST CENTERED ON 19-JAN

SHOW HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PERSISTING RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR

GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT. AT THE SAME TIME...NEGATIVE HEIGHT

ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM ALASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE

CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT

MJO EPISODE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE

MONTH. MEAN OLR ANOMALIES OVER THE PAST WEEK SHOW ENHANCED

CONVECTION CONCENTRATING OVER TROPICAL SOUTHEAST ASIA. GEFS ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS AREA OF

ENHANCED CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC...WITH WHEELER PHASE

SPACE PLOTS BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING A MODERATE TO STRONG

MJO SIGNAL ORBITING INTO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AFTER ABOUT 20-JAN.

IF THIS VERIFIES...THAT WOULD PUT US INTO PHASE 8 AND PHASE 1 OF THE

MJO CYCLE FOR THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO OF JANUARY...WITH COMPOSITE

ANALOGS SHOWING A STRONG CORRELATION TOWARDS BELOW AVERAGE

TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP IN THE GREAT LAKES WHEN IN

THESE PHASES. THUS...IF THE MJO FORECAST VERIFIES WE MAY SEE A

PERIOD OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR

THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO OF JANUARY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONTINUANCE

OF THE GREENLAND BLOCK. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...THE MJO CYCLE ALSO

SUPPORTS A BRIEF BUT POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP AS WE PASS THROUGH

PHASE 5 AND 6 IN A WEEK TO 10 DAYS. THIS HAS SOME SUPPORT WITH THE

ECMWF AND GFS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND

AMPLITUDE. STAY TUNED.-- End Changed Discussion --

:snowman:
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Interactive snow map

Looks like it was a 30:1 ratio here. One of the higher ones I have seen since I have been living here over the past 24 years.

:sun:

Made 4, 1 on the side lawn, 2 in the backyard and one in the street by my driveway. This one had the desired effect, I heard the plow stop perhaps he thought there was someone in the street as a result I didn't get speed plowed.

.5 on 12 = 24:1 ratio :snowwindow:

I made Six...And you should know better....... don't play in the street.:rolleyes:

You're not my Mommy! :cry:

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Picked up about 2.5 inches since the snow began around 2:45pm. Its lightened up for now but I could see a little bit more developing once the winds turn more N and then eventually NW... Id be happy with another 2 inches by tomorrow morning... Current snowpack is about 6-8 inches =]

Where do you get your Perrysburg total? As of mid-December, the COOP there had only had around 50" and I don't think there's been another 83" since then.

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I have been saying on the SNE side for like four days that this is running the coast.....a hugger. :) Maybe my incredible pattern recognition skills or maybe if you say things enough they will come true. LOL 18Z GFS made a big move toward the NAM and I think it isn't done trending west yet.

I'm waiting for the upper low to slingshot the moisture along the CT coast to the NW (revenge of the inverted trough part deux)...........................One can dream :popcorn:

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In a general way NO they don't . Miller A's form farther south off of the SEUS or the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore their source region of development is a warmer environment, thus these lows can "hold" more moisture.

Miller B's as noted by TG often are secondary redevelopments while sometimes these redevelopments can occur along the Carolina's Coast they often tend to develop in a corridor from Cape Hatteras-to Cape Cod.

Another aside: The amount of QP that a storm produces is more a function of many factors other than purely its source region of development. Duration (is it slowly moving northeast or fast mover), is it weak or strong, blocking patterns etc. are all crucial to the amt of precip that the storm gives.

Miller A’s If you look up and compare Costal Miller A"s and B's You will see that it seems that Miller A's seem to need to track closer to the coast then their cousin. In a Miller A the rain-snow transition zone is relatively narrow due to the storm's structure. Whereas, a Miller B's have multiple above freezing layers. Because of this, it is common tol see various precipitation types not only across the whole region and often in a specific location as well ( sleet, snow, freezing rain or a wintry mix)

Also, if you look at the tracks of costals over the last 50-75 years you will notice that Miller B's are much more common that their cousin Miller A

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Miller A’s If you look up and compare Costal Miller A"s and B's You will see that it seems that Miller A's seem to need to track closer to the coast then their cousin. In a Miller A the rain-snow transition zone is relatively narrow due to the storm's structure. Whereas, a Miller B's have multiple above freezing layers. Because of this, it is common tol see various precipitation types not only across the whole region and often in a specific location as well ( sleet, snow, freezing rain or a wintry mix)

Also, if you look at the tracks of costals over the last 50-75 years you will notice that Miller B's are much more common that their cousin Miller A

What are you implying here? :lmao:

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I'm waiting for the upper low to slingshot the moisture along the CT coast to the NW (revenge of the inverted trough part deux)...........................One can dream :popcorn:

inverted trough still going strong in ottawa, in fact the radar is lighting up like a christmas tree after dying down for a bit :arrowhead:

Logan was right when he said 'rot in place' the other day.

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