Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nam is fairly consistent with its previous runs, for the first time id say. a solid event for ENY/CNY along the I-81 corridor, NNY and eastern ontario through the ottawa valley.....long duration, but an interesting one with a potential few surprises. ill await the RGEM and look at the SREF....if the RGEM and NAM continue to match, it might be time to lock it in. so you're thinkng it may finally be looking good for us for a change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm heading out to Western NY on Sunday ...be interesting to see who has snow, etc. First to Allegany County at 2300' on the plateau and then up to my cousins in Naples near Lake Canandaigua. Then I'll shoot home on the Thruway from like Geneva east Tuesday night... I may be forced to stop at the Waterloo Factory Outlets. I realize this is really off topic, but i have to say that I really like the NYS Thruway. Much better highway than the 401 in Ontario, what with service stations every half an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 LOLWUT http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 00z Nam No real surprises....Looks like everything is on track......As for snow totals .... My thoughts are the same as earlier...This won't be a mega event; but the way this winter has been for me at least; I will take 10-14 and if I'm lucky enough maybe 12-16 over the 48 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm going to stay up to watch the 00z GFS come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES STORM TOTAL. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. original forecast was calling for 1 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm going to stay up to watch the 00z GFS come in. What's your seasonal total so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not much....30.5 inches All the LES has been going SE of Ontario and for the most part staying off the Tug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Up to 2.2 inches as of 10:15 =] snow falling at a very nice clip right now =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES STORM TOTAL. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. original forecast was calling for 1 inches lol Sounds about right....I would think 3-4 most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 so you're thinkng it may finally be looking good for us for a change? well it will probably be the biggest event of the season for ottawa, but given the season, thats not saying much.....in addiiton this is going to be a multi-day event......so its not going to have the appeal of a storm....... what will be interesting if an enhanced band can develop within the trough line. then things could get interesting. i will likely travel back to ottawa tomorrow around noon if the overnight models hold (i wont be staying up for all of them).....reason being its an unusual setup for our region, and im interested to see if any enhancement occurs. ottawa will be in a better spot than montreal for this opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the 18z shows a cutter before the cold outbreak ugh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Watching the 00z GFS come in is like watching paint dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NWS saying a solid inch per hour in this band of snow =] “RADAR ESTIMATING SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING AN INCH AN HOUR WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND.” theres about 2.5 inches here with the NWS saying another 2-4 inches on top of what we got. No a bad little event =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 well it will probably be the biggest event of the season for ottawa, but given the season, thats not saying much.....in addiiton this is going to be a multi-day event......so its not going to have the appeal of a storm....... what will be interesting if an enhanced band can develop within the trough line. then things could get interesting. i will likely travel back to ottawa tomorrow around noon if the overnight models hold (i wont be staying up for all of them).....reason being its an unusual setup for our region, and im interested to see if any enhancement occurs. ottawa will be in a better spot than montreal for this opportunity. good to hear. By the way, I posted links in Don's thread with regard to what he says was the last time there was a persistent Greenland block in 1959-60. January 1960 wasn't great, but February 1960 saw over 86cm of snow, with there being over a metre deep snowpack by the end of that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NWS saying a solid inch per hour in this band of snow =] “RADAR ESTIMATING SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING AN INCH AN HOUR WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND.” theres about 2.5 inches here with the NWS saying another 2-4 inches on top of what we got. No a bad little event =] you must've been in some dry slot earlier in the evening lol,prolly 3+ here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think it's gonna be pretty hard to justfy warnings after the NAM and GFS. If I was ALB I'd convery most of the watches to advisories of 3-6 and 4-8 in some oro favored spots. 7" is a warning if it occurs in 12 hours I guess, but that probably won't be achieved anyway.... Many people bought the earleir inflated qpf numbers, but now we are getting back to a more typical clipper/inverted trough reality. Maybe a few areas of the Dacks can get into a low end warning if the inverted trough parks there for longer. 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yeah the GFS is terribly slow its awful the RGEM defintely not as exciting as the NAM in the ottawa area......neither is the GFS it appears. the SREFs are in line with other modeling with the pivot point of the troff over NNY/eastern ontario.....so good agreement now.... but they too not as exciting as the NAM. the NAM is of course supposedly good at picking up these mesoscale type situations, so it cannot be entirely discounted now that is posiitiong is in agreement....but its almost certainly overdoing the precip as its an outlier. i think a reasonable call at this time for eastern ontario and the border region is a general 3-6 inches as thought earlier.....7-15cm i'll go with 2-4 inches / 5-10cm in SW quebec, montreal area included, which could get fringed. this is a multi day total so its really not a big deal unless some sort of band occurs. as things get setup tomorrow on radar, enhancement and good ratios could certainly up the ante. but its such an unusual setup for the region, hard to get too bullish at this time until we see things develop. we will also have to watch for the developmnet of the offshore low over the weekend, that could result in this event being more low-end verifying if the inv troff weakens more rapidly. its a trend to watch. probably not worth a trip either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Notice the nice V trough...This could be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 good to hear. By the way, I posted links in Don's thread with regard to what he says was the last time there was a persistent Greenland block in 1959-60. January 1960 wasn't great, but February 1960 saw over 86cm of snow, with there being over a metre deep snowpack by the end of that month. hmmm, good info.....that is greatly encouraging. my only interest these days is snow depth, of which we still have plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My Dad told me that March 1960 was very big in ENY.... Course I wasn't around. hmmm, good info.....that is greatly encouraging. my only interest these days is snow depth, of which we still have plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1055 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011 NYZ001-010-085-070500- NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…NIAGARA FALLS…BUFFALO… ORCHARD PARK…SPRINGVILLE 1055 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011 …HEAVIER SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE… A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ENHANCED BY LAKE ERIE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES…AND START TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM ANGOLA TO HAMBURG BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW MAY REACH AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR…AND THERE MAY BE A FLASH OF LIGHTNING AND RUMBLE OF THUNDER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 you must've been in some dry slot earlier in the evening lol,prolly 3+ here I was in a little dry slot earlier, it really didnt start coming down untill about 5-6 and the heaviest didnt start falling untill about 830-9, Just went outside and took 3 measurements and came up with 2.3, 2.7 and 3.2 so theres an average of about 2.8 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1055 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011 NYZ001-010-085-070500- NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…NIAGARA FALLS…BUFFALO… ORCHARD PARK…SPRINGVILLE 1055 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011 …HEAVIER SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE… A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ENHANCED BY LAKE ERIE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES…AND START TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM ANGOLA TO HAMBURG BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW MAY REACH AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR…AND THERE MAY BE A FLASH OF LIGHTNING AND RUMBLE OF THUNDER I knew I saw lightning earlier, hope too see more later tonight =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I knew I saw lightning earlier, hope too see more later tonight =] imagine if the lake was warmer by 2c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 imagine if the lake was warmer by 2c Don't even get me started, I don;t want to upset myself. If the lake was warmer by 2C wed probally be dealing with 2-3 inch per hour amounts for a 6-12 inch total in about 6 hours time. But oh well I'll take my 3 or so inches thus far and whatever else falls tonight/tomorrow. Snowing very good out there now =] Gotta be close to an inch per hour =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Don't even get me started, I don;t want to upset myself. If the lake was warmer by 2C wed probally be dealing with 2-3 inch per hour amounts for a 6-12 inch total in about 6 hours time. But oh well I'll take my 3 or so inches thus far and whatever else falls tonight/tomorrow. Snowing very good out there now =] Gotta be close to an inch per hour =] at least we getting something out of nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 at least we getting something out of nothing lol Yup, but I think it's funny how on the weatherblog Don's questioning my 3 inch report, but yet he wont question your 3 inch report as of 2 hours ago, lol, whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yup, but I think it's funny how on the weatherblog Don's questioning my 3 inch report, but yet he wont question your 3 inch report as of 2 hours ago, lol, whatever. lol meh..Goodnite fella! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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