Organizing Low Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Eventually the old trough reaches a northernmost point where it sits and rots away... I was hoping it would be here, but as per climo it is looking to be north of ALB somewhere.... yeah its shifting northeastward slowly. but this would be a very unusual setup for the ottawa valley too .....per climo of course these are usually over NNE/ENE?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It rarely fails to assume this kind of inverted trough will slip slowly N/E on later model runs. Last year we had the unbelievable blocking and nothing ever trended north, but this is a new year. I hope it's done now because I still get a nice event. Different event and set of circumstances, but I still think next weeks event hugs the coast for us..... Trough digging into the plains should scoop up the southern stream entity. NAO going neutral or positive... yeah its shifting northeastward slowly. but this would be a very unusual setup for the ottawa valley too.....of course these are usually over maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It rarely fails to assume this kind of inverted trough will slip slowly N/E on later model runs. Last year we had the unbelievable blocking and nothing ever trended north, but this is a new year. I hope it's done now because I still get a nice event. yes i think you will be / should be fine. it should get going around your area as per all modeling it seems, and then go from there....CoastalWx also mentioned that these things have a tendency to stall out unexpectedly, so you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM shows good lake enhancement around sun/mon time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Right I meant that N/S area of heights that cut through Grafton. Then you drop again as you head east into the route 22 corridor. I don't doubt they will get shadowed along route 22. So to get into extreme meso factors, I could see some shadowing just east of the Hudson, then less shadow, then shadowing again along route 22. But I'm sure your maps can't be so precise. To be honest they really can't. Because of this we do get some bitchy e-mails or phone calls when some of these shadow zones get a bit less than forecast or the opposite when they are overforecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 QPF HAS COME DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS/ECMWF. ITAPPEARS THE NAM IS A BIT OVERDONE WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WITH TOO MUCH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SCARCE AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS...AS WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE MORE UNIFORM...MAINLY FOCUSING THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE AREA. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...ALSO EVIDENT ON PLUME DIAGRAMS AT ALB. QPF RANGING FROM 0.30 TO 0.75 AT ALB. THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH AT LEAST 15 TO 1 AND POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER. SO...EVEN MARGINAL QPF COULD RESULT IN 7 TO 9+ INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE KEY IN ATTAINING THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE WHERE THE SNOW SHIELD PIVOTS AS THE UPPER LOW TURN THE CORNER AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 WKTV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 KALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
met_fan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 KALB Where did you find that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Where did you find that map? I think it might be the first 1 they have made, i could never find 1 before lol Here's the link.. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/WinterPage.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think it might be the first 1 they have made, i could never find 1 before lol Here's the link.. http://www.erh.noaa..../WinterPage.htm We TV boys shamed and showed them how to do it. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 18Z GFS really rips that inverted trough north of the CD. Very little QPF south and west of ALB after 0Z. We TV boys shamed and showed them how to do it. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 18Z GFS really rips that inverted trough north of the CD. Very little QPF south and west of ALB after 0Z. That is an interesting development for sure but considering the spread on where the OPS have the trough, the track of the C/O lows and vorts I really think this isn't going to be fully or confidently resolved until 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The winds in the lower atmosphere will be out of the northwest so Syracuse will be a candidate for several inches of snow each day of the weekend on top of what falls Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just seen wten new snowfall forecast , i like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I always try not to be a model hugger, but when the 18Z GFS and 18Z NAM lifted the inverted trough north faster I got a smidge worried......just a smidge That is an interesting development for sure but considering the spread on where the OPS have the trough, the track of the C/O lows and vorts I really think this isn't going to be fully or confidently resolved until 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Personally I'm thinking about 6" of snow here.... Call it a 4-8 inch range. The fluff factor will enhance, but the earlier qpf may be overdone so split it down the middle. Just seen wten new snowfall forecast , i like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I was thinking the same thing....if we get more (which we may) I 'll be pleasantly surprised. Lowering expectations can really pay off in the end. Personally I'm thinking about 6" of snow here.... Call it a 4-8 inch range. The fluff factor will enhance, but the earlier qpf may be overdone so split it down the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RUC 22 looks a litltle like the old nam runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Sadly, this event stands to be the largest synoptic snowfall for the I-81 corridor in CNY so far this season, thus no complaints from this precinct. BGM forecasted snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The winds in the lower atmosphere will be out of the northwest so Syracuse will be a candidate for several inches of snow each day of the weekend on top of what falls Friday. Probably correct - this will be a slow feed of 'entry level' snow. Probably no more than 2-4" in any 12 hr period. We are likely on the western fringe of where any advisory would even be warranted. LES will be more interesting potentially, as per norm. Not sure if you get into Oswego Cty often but So. and Western parts have been hit pretty hard last 2-3 days, generally 1-2 feet in total. Seems like this was the first day this week I wasn't driving to/from work having to deal w/ a heavy LES band somewhere (or snowblowing its deposit). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM QPF, little batch of 1/2-3/4 just to the east.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamp24_NE030.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Gravestone I live in the southwest corner of oswego county and easily have a foot+ here. And looking like that total will be even higher by the end of the weekend. I say bring it on since i do alot of snowmobiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Some nice enhancement now flaring up off L Erie into S Ontario and Niagara County: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=buf&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no About an inch new snow here since late afternoon. Expect at least a couple more as this band works through during the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 east wind in full force in Ottawa, steadily dropping the temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Gravestone I live in the southwest corner of oswego county and easily have a foot+ here. And looking like that total will be even higher by the end of the weekend. I say bring it on since i do alot of snowmobiling. One of my favorite parts of the world. I've driven through my share of 3"+/hr snowbands on Rts 34 and 104 in SW Oswego County en route to Fulton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm heading out to Western NY on Sunday ...be interesting to see who has snow, etc. First to Allegany County at 2300' on the plateau and then up to my cousins in Naples near Lake Canandaigua. Then I'll shoot home on the Thruway from like Geneva east Tuesday night... I may be forced to stop at the Waterloo Factory Outlets. Some nice enhancement now flaring up off L Erie into S Ontario and Niagara County: http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no About an inch new snow here since late afternoon. Expect at least a couple more as this band works through during the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Some nice enhancement now flaring up off L Erie into S Ontario and Niagara County: http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no About an inch new snow here since late afternoon. Expect at least a couple more as this band works through during the night. Measured 2 inches at 8PM,some moderate snow outside :popcorn:hopefully this sucker stalls over the city and drop couple inches before it moves south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nam is fairly consistent with its previous runs, for the first time id say. a solid event for ENY/CNY along the I-81 corridor, NNY and eastern ontario through the ottawa valley.....long duration, but an interesting one with a potential few surprises. ill await the RGEM and look at the SREF....if the RGEM and NAM continue to match, it might be time to lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY AND EXTREME NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. AREA ROADWAYS WILL HAVE A COATING OF SNOW WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND LESS TRAVELLED ROADS. EXPECT AN ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. $ LOLWUT http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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