0z Models December 27th, 2010

[Dino]

Snow continues in the Northeast with Blizzard conditions.

FIRST: New Years Forecast

Looking forward, the 0z GFS shows December 31st-January 1st clear with above average temperatures through mid-day. A rainstorm will move in the night of the 1st.

As of now it seems the storm will be moving over the blue ridge mountains into some very dry air leaving only light rain accumulations on the 2nd.

END OF WARMUP: Chance of Snow

Cold air moves back in around the 3rd and 4th of January.

January 6th-8th, a storm forms in the GOM and moves into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

At this point it is hard to tell if the storm will be rain or snow, however, without the proper blocking in place the storm will push warm air north and move out to sea.

This is way out of range at this point (288hrs) so this can't be digested until at least 8 days from now.

[Feb]

This run of the GFS is not pretty if you like snow for the east coast. It pretty much melts what fell in this storm and doesn't give much hope for any over the next two weeks. Of course we need to face the fact that this storm winding down is probably the storm of the winter so we shouldn't expect much from here on out.

[showmethesnow]

Setup for the Jan 7 threat mentioned by DT.

To my inexperienced eyes-

The GFS at this time looks to have a good setup with a west based -NAO, a deep 50/50 low in a good spot, and a deep very positive trough just moving out of the southwest. Thereafter though it weakens the 50/50 low and allows the southwest low to drive into the eastern great lakes.

The Euro on the other hand is more progressive with the southwest shortwave and not as deep. Doesn't have a 50/50 as yet but it has a low in the mid atlantic that is moving north and deepening. Doesn't look like an -NAO but it does have a high building from the south and east towards Greenland. The flow looks very zonal though and I wonder if this depicts more of an over running situation.

Seems odd that the Euro would be more progressive with the southwest shortwave compared to the GFS when from what I understand the Euro has a bias of holding them back longer. I would think if the GFS was as progressive with the southwest short wave as the Euro that with its set up that would argue for a Miller A tapping into the gulf.

I would welcome any constructive criticism on my analysis.

Euro 10 day

GFS 10 Day

[showmethesnow]

Setup for the Jan 7 threat mentioned by DT.

To my inexperienced eyes-

The GFS at this time looks to have a good setup with a west based -NAO, a deep 50/50 low in a good spot, and a deep very positive trough just moving out of the southwest. Thereafter though it weakens the 50/50 low and allows the southwest low to drive into the eastern great lakes.

The Euro on the other hand is more progressive with the southwest shortwave and not as deep. Doesn't have a 50/50 as yet but it has a low in the mid atlantic that is moving north and deepening. Doesn't look like an -NAO but it does have a high building from the south and west towards Greenland. The flow looks very zonal though and I wonder if this depicts more of an over running situation.

Seems odd that the Euro would be more progressive with the southwest shortwave compared to the GFS when from what I understand the Euro has a bias of holding them back longer. I would think if the GFS was as progressive with the southwest short wave as the Euro that with its set up that would argue for a Miller A tapping into the gulf.

I would welcome any constructive criticism on my analysis.

Euro 10 day

GFS 10 Day

Also wanted to mention that if the Euro had the short wave where the GFS depicts it I think that would allow for the -NAO to develop as well as the 50/50 low to create a good setup. I myself think that there is a lot of potential in that time frame.