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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 10


yhbrooklyn

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Even Norman, OK mentions the warm conveyor belt!

If we were to compare this storm pressure wise to a comparable tropical system at these latitudes... Gives the ambient temps in the 20's over land with this things sucking juice over some close to 50 deg water off the gulf stream, speaking in terms of temp gradient this is somewhat warm core, is it not? A look at wv imagery shows a tropical fetch... I know this is not a tropical system and I am playing semantics, but WTF why not stir the pot comparable to how these winds have been stirring my house!

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1124 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ...SERN NY...WRN MA/CT...SRN VT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 270524Z - 271130Z

HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS NRN NJ SHORTLY

AFTER 06Z...AND THEN SERN NY AND WRN MA/CT TOWARD 09Z. ONE INCH/HR

RATES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF VT THROUGH 12Z...AND THEN

DECREASE THEREAFTER.

OCCLUDING DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF LONG

ISLAND...WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED SEGMENT OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT

WRAPPING AROUND THE NRN AND WRN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE ACROSS VT SWD

INTO SERN NY AND NRN NJ. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED

BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL EXTENDING NWD OUT OF NJ AND INTO SRN

VT...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2...TO OCCASIONALLY 3 IN/HR HAVE

OCCURRED THROUGH THE EVENING. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES

THE LOW/MIDLEVEL CYCLONE WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD CAPE CODE THROUGH

12Z...WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT

/FRONTOGENESIS/ TO LIFT AWAY FROM NRN NJ/SERN NY AND WRN

MA/CT...RESULTING IN SNOWFALL RATES GENERALLY DECREASING BELOW 1

IN/HR BY 09Z. FARTHER N OVER THE SRN HALF OF VT...STRONG ASCENT WILL

LINGER THROUGH 12Z...FAVORING SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR THROUGH

THE NIGHT...AND THEN DECREASING FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 12Z AS THE

STORM SYSTEM EXITS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

IN ADDITION...STRONG N-NWLY SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH

THE NIGHT/MORNING...ALLOWING BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY TO

PERSIST AFTER THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES HAVE COME TO AN END.

..GARNER.. 12/27/2010

Isn't it already 06Z now. hmmmm... I don't know... I don't see the southern edge of the heavy snow making any northeastward progression... unless, this thing is really gonna start moving in the next hour or two.

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Isn't it already 06Z now. hmmmm... I don't know... I don't see the southern edge of the heavy snow making any northeastward progression... unless, this thing is really gonna start moving in the next hour or two.

The snow area is now starting to exhibit a more north-south training motion, usually that goes for a few hours before it begins sliding out to the east or northeast....it could easily be snowing as far west as NYC til around 14Z.

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The snow area is now starting to exhibit a more north-south training motion, usually that goes for a few hours before it begins sliding out to the east or northeast....it could easily be snowing as far west as NYC til around 14Z.

I think you can see the N-S motion in the last few frames here.

post-2065-0-30556900-1293430329.gif

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It's almost impossible to open up my front door right now because of the drifting. The actual falling snow is probably moderate now and nothing really impressive, but the wind and blowing snow make it incredible looking outside. It's hard to really estimate again but I'm guessing around 14 or 15".

~13.5" here, but it's a very tough measure.

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If we were to compare this storm pressure wise to a comparable tropical system at these latitudes... Gives the ambient temps in the 20's over land with this things sucking juice over some close to 50 deg water off the gulf stream, speaking in terms of temp gradient this is somewhat warm core, is it not? A look at wv imagery shows a tropical fetch... I know this is not a tropical system and I am playing semantics, but WTF why not stir the pot comparable to how these winds have been stirring my house!

Warm core systems have a higher temperature compared to the environment while cold core systems have lower temperature compared to the environment. Most Mid latitude cyclones, our storm, are cold core while tropical systems are warm core. If you have any more questions, PM please!

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The snow area is now starting to exhibit a more north-south training motion, usually that goes for a few hours before it begins sliding out to the east or northeast....it could easily be snowing as far west as NYC til around 14Z.

Agreed, we have a few more hours to go.

That area in c/n-nj bounded by i-78, i-287 and the turnpike is the jackpot - places like Bridgewater/Raritan, Gladstone, Baskin Ridge should be the highest totals or eastern middlessex, monmouth and ocean from rt9 and east..

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Been a nice storm but My area was just (I mean just maybe 10 miles)on the western edge of the real Heavy Precip most of the day/night except for a 2 hr period where those 30DBZ rates slid over..My buddy up by Berkley Heights has 10 inches more than I do and he is only 20 minutes from here shows just how severe those cutoffs are ..This was/is an Epic storm for Half of NJ and NYC but just a very nice storm for alot of others but hopefully more chances arise before the winter is out but this one will be hard to top for alot of people..

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