Discuss the Blizz of 2010 - Part II

[40/70 Benchmark]

just measured.. looks lke 12"

Agreed....on par with what I came up with.

That report of 17" in Wilmington was taken from a drift and\or after a few stiff cocktails.

[SC48]

Drift measurements aren't reccomended, but to each their own.

I'm after the truth.

No, not drifts, those would be about close to 3 feet aganst the 6 foot wood fence. I don't know why there is such a gradient in this town but it's very disconcerning. I measure it the old fashioned way to. Meaning without wiping it off a board.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Jerry was in the mid 20's the entire storm and powder

That's why I said "NWS TAN measuring almost a foot and a half of heavy wet snow is astounding because you know it was 100% done by the book: Logan got smoked took. KTAN isn't usually near the top of the totals, it adds a ton of veracity to nearby reports.

Drift measurements aren't reccomended, but to each their own.

I'm after the truth.

Most are after the highest totals but they had terrific ratios out there.

Your reports always impress me as conservative which I like.

Heavy snow here right now, great flakes. Jerry FTW this morning, much nicer than I though. Roads are a fiasco.

[dendrite]

1.49" QPF. NAM and GFS were not far off. I believe they were in the 1.7" range.

And when you factor in the winds some of the precip didn't make it into the can....so it was probably fairly close to the QPF. < 10:1 would make sense given your temps too. Nice event for you.

[Tropopause_Fold]

nice snow falling now. wind is amazing...house/window rattling north gusts.

[MainePhotog]

10:45 a.m. update

11.1" total snow so far (average of 10 measurements, no drift measurements)

-SN/BS

25.1° F.

Winds: 17.5 mph gust 38.8 mph

Baro: 28.88 inHg

[amarshall]

850's aren't everything though. I actually thought we had a nice warm tongue coming into eastern areas last night. In fact, remember all those radar echoes that kept generating near and just east of the Canal as they moved nw. This was due to upglide..likely enhanced by CF too. However, you need good moisture in the DGZ. That's key.

What do you think we got in the Quincy/Dorchester area?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Northern and northwest NH got creamed, way more then forecast. 2+ feet in spots, and some places in the Whites will get over 30 inches. My friend in Lyme, NH is near 20 inches. This storm way outperformed in those areas and really was sad in many others. Luckily I have some beautiful bands going through right now. I guess another 2-4 could make me happy.

Sunday River up to 16" and it doesn't look inflated based on radar and the webcam. they've been getting croaked. Was a terrific storm up there for ski country and I'm really happy for them.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I think Scott kind of nailed it down last night, whenever you have a 5h elongating as it comes up the coast that can result in drive air getting driven north. Combined with the curling nature of the low pressure and the time/location at which it bombed once it did the deed and screwed some of you the dynamics had escaped for most.

I'd contend a lot of it did have to do with where it bombed/curved. If that had occured 100 miles east the conveyor belt may have won out eventually.

Shift this map so that the 8h is due south of RI when all this happened and Kev, Ray, Tip, Will, etc....everyone would have gotten their share of epic bands and IMO it wouldn't have changed much out west they'd still have gotten nailed.

On this map you have a 12c differential at 8h over just a few miles during the height, skip ahead to 6z and look over SNE, as the low matured we lost most of that gradient aside of a tight area and really even there it was vastly diminished. IMO we just needed it to cut from where it was to just south of RI and slowly roll ENE and this would have been a blizzard for the ages.

Your classic Paul Kocin S

And your not so classic, more mature storm ( too close to a lot of SNE)

Definitely not your classic setup. If this had occluded 100-150 miles east, we would have been talking about one of the all time greats. As it stands though, this will likely be a mid-range KU given the impact to the NJ/PA/NY/CT area up into RI/MA. Not great by our standards but a good one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

No, not drifts, those would be about close to 3 feet aganst the 6 foot wood fence. I don't know why there is such a gradient in this town but it's very disconcerning. I measure it the old fashioned way to. Meaning without wiping it off a board.

I guess maybe your property is more prone to drifting, which would make us susceptible to relatively large discrepancies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That's why I said "NWS TAN measuring almost a foot and a half of heavy wet snow is astounding because you know it was 100% done by the book: Logan got smoked took. KTAN isn't usually near the top of the totals, it adds a ton of veracity to nearby reports.

Most are after the highest totals but they had terrific ratios out there.

Your reports always impress me as conservative which I like.

Heavy snow here right now, great flakes. Jerry FTW this morning, much nicer than I though. Roads are a fiasco.

He lives in my town...further south, actually.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Sunday River up to 16" and it doesn't look inflated based on radar and the webcam. they've been getting croaked. Was a terrific storm up there for ski country and I'm really happy for them.

Looks like 0.64" at KIZG w/ likely 15:1 ratios

[bmj16725]

Ended up with just over 8" averaged from 10 locations - underperformed in the snow department, but the wind made it memorable. West of route 8 cashed in nicely.

[Typhoon Tip]

Good stuff for all that you wrote, but why do you think that was? I don't mean that as a complaint as I obviously cashed in; I'm merely pondering a fascinating question.

i am not sure really. I am trying to figure that.

In some systems, the vertical axis of the cyclone is tilted toward the west because the mid level mechanical lift is riding up over a thick llv cold dome. When that happens the surface low is a little east of the 850mb, which is a little east of the 700mb (usually the 700 and 500mb centers align regardless..). But when that happens it "tears" the precipitation shield into bands. Last night really took on that appeal, however, with the storm approaching from the S and the other data notwithstanding, the virtical tilt scenario doesn't really enter into consideration very well. There had to be another reason.

Interesting

[Logan11]

I was a bit far northwest for the best band but I came in with about 7 to 8 inches so not bad for a fringe event. It's blown to bits now, but I went down into the woods to measure ..about 10" on the ground there, but some is old snow. Extreme wind chill now with the blowing and drifting - actual temperature of 9F.

ALB area itself around 10" give or take.......

Yes here is the jackpot zone which began about 25-30 miles to my east/southeast:

Connecticut

Litchfield County -- Precipitation Reports

Canaan

14.00"

Massachusetts

Berkshire County -- Precipitation Reports

Alford, MA

20.00"

Pittsfield

16.00"

Lanesborough

15.00"

Clarksburg

15.00"

Pittsfield

14.00"

New York

Columbia County -- Precipitation Reports

Kinderhook

17.50"

Ghent

20.00"

North Chatham

20.25"

Taghkanic

19.00"

Livingston

16.50"

Ancramdale

14.50"

Copake

14.00"

Chatham Center

16.00"

Dutchess County -- Precipitation Reports

Pine Plains

25.00"

Hopewell Junction

24.00"

Greene County -- Precipitation Reports

Maplecrest

17.00"

Greenville

11.00"

Ashland

11.00"

Prattsville

11.00"

Rensselaer County -- Precipitation Reports

Hoosick Falls

16.00"

Brunswick

11.00"

Vermont

Bennington County -- Precipitation Reports

Landgrove

18.00"

Woodford

20.00"

Rutland County -- Precipitation Reports

Danby

13.25"

Thinking it's more the Taconics and far western slope of the Berks that got crushed this time. NWS reports from 730 AM in Chesterfield have only 7.5". The dry slot did affect the east slope quite a bit last night.

Snowing again in Noho.

[Baroclinic Zone]

And when you factor in the winds some of the precip didn't make it into the can....so it was probably fairly close to the QPF. < 10:1 would make sense given your temps too. Nice event for you.

Yeah 10:1 ratios were about right. I may have gone as high as 12:1 when I was thumping pretty good, but down to 8:1 when I was getting those nasty rimed snow crystals.

[Damage In Tolland]

No, not drifts, those would be about close to 3 feet aganst the 6 foot wood fence. I don't know why there is such a gradient in this town but it's very disconcerning. I measure it the old fashioned way to. Meaning without wiping it off a board.

Do you think it was possible that the ruler was upside down when you were measuring?

[TheSnowman]

I can not BeLIEVE the stats from NYC!

6th Biggest Snowstorm in NYC History

3rd Biggest Snowstorm in Newark history(what did they get in 2010 II?)

7th Biggest Snowstorm in JFK history.

Jesus! 31"+ in Elizabeth, NJ.

[CoastalWx]

What do you think we got in the Quincy/Dorchester area?

I'm not there unfortunately. Sounds like a lot though.

[Baroclinic Zone]

That's why I said "NWS TAN measuring almost a foot and a half of heavy wet snow is astounding because you know it was 100% done by the book: Logan got smoked took. KTAN isn't usually near the top of the totals, it adds a ton of veracity to nearby reports.

Most are after the highest totals but they had terrific ratios out there.

Your reports always impress me as conservative which I like.

Heavy snow here right now, great flakes. Jerry FTW this morning, much nicer than I though. Roads are a fiasco.

There was definitely a lot of CF enhancement right along the I-495 belt from Wrentham down to Middleboro.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I can not BeLIEVE the stats from NYC!

6th Biggest Snowstorm in NYC History

3rd Biggest Snowstorm in Newark history(what did they get in 2010 II?)

7th Biggest Snowstorm in JFK history.

Jesus! 31"+ in Elizabeth, NJ.

It seems like about one out of every 3-4 years now NYC has to deal with a boat load of snow right before NYE. Pretty cool really, and for them a great blizzard. I cannot believe how many times that area has been hit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know events of this ilk are subject to skewed results attributed to drifting, so what I would suggest under these circumstances is to sample other areas of land and not just your own property.....if you have a common area, or a neighbor is away or asleep....sneak over and sample the property.

Some may feel strange doing this, but if you want to negate some of the variance that large drifting subjects our measurements to under these rather extreme circumstances, then I strongly suggest adopting my practice.

I'll do it again after it stops because it would eat at my sole if I had any semebalance of a doubt that I didn't provide BOX with the most accurate storm total possible for my locale, to the best of my ability..

[SC48]

I guess maybe your property is more prone to drifting, which would make us susceptible to relatively large discrepancies.

Oh, I know. I'm not yelling at you at all. Just reporting. I think my friend we had a couple of situations simliar to this. Where a very small ribbon of CF came in, and if you were not in it then you didn't get it. I think December 2003 it happed (19") simliar to Bedford, MA and Blizzard of 2005 were North Woburn had 28", Chelmsford had 27", I had 27", North Wilmington had 25" and Lexington, MA came in with only 21. Very interesting that that has happened a couple or so times with this type of banding.

[cpickett79]

band from hell setting up over E. plymouth and next town east. on radar you could see two areas consolidated east of cape ann and that band is going BOOM!

i'm in lil screw zone in framingham now but i'm gonna head over to wa wa at 3pm and ski this evening . prob up to close to 10 inches of powda there with that band snowin down on them now.

[Bostonseminole]

Sunday River up to 16" and it doesn't look inflated based on radar and the webcam. they've been getting croaked. Was a terrific storm up there for ski country and I'm really happy for them.

I would begreat if we can get another x-mas miracle and the low can stall and just let it rip for another 4-6 hours... one can dream.

[Organizing Low]

I'm here. Been cleaning up from the mess. Few limbs down. Everything is caked in snow. Been playing outside with my daughter.

14-15" total. Not a bad storm. Winds were ferocious. Gusts to mid 40's, sustained in the upper 20's. Not nearly as good as Jan 2005 in my world. Some of the deepest, heaviest snow I have had to dig out from in some time. Temps. never budged from the 32-34F for the whole storm. 1.49" QPF. NAM and GFS were not far off. I believe they were in the 1.7" range.

yikes that must be some heavy heavy snow.

[Kbosch]

I think Scott kind of nailed it down last night, whenever you have a 5h elongating as it comes up the coast that can result in drive air getting driven north. Combined with the curling nature of the low pressure and the time/location at which it bombed once it did the deed and screwed some of you the dynamics had escaped for most.

I'd contend a lot of it did have to do with where it bombed/curved. If that had occured 100 miles east the conveyor belt may have won out eventually.

Shift this map so that the 8h is due south of RI when all this happened and Kev, Ray, Tip, Will, etc....everyone would have gotten their share of epic bands and IMO it wouldn't have changed much out west they'd still have gotten nailed.

On this map you have a 12c differential at 8h over just a few miles during the height, skip ahead to 6z and look over SNE, as the low matured we lost most of that gradient aside of a tight area and really even there it was vastly diminished. IMO we just needed it to cut from where it was to just south of RI and slowly roll ENE and this would have been a blizzard for the ages.

Very nice, followed all that, thanks.

i am not sure really. I am trying to figure that.

In some systems, the vertical axis of the cyclone is tilted toward the west because the mid level mechanical lift is riding up over a thick llv cold dome. When that happens the surface low is a little east of the 850mb, which is a little east of the 700mb (usually the 700 and 500mb centers align regardless..). But when that happens it "tears" the precipitation shield into bands. Last night really took on that appeal, however, with the storm approaching from the S and the other data notwithstanding, the virtical tilt scenario doesn't really enter into consideration very well. There had to be another reason.

Interesting

I thought you might take more time to consider it since you seem to enjoy providing us with lengthy discussion. I'll look forward to that, thanks.

[bobbutts]

Sunday River up to 16" and it doesn't look inflated based on radar and the webcam. they've been getting croaked. Was a terrific storm up there for ski country and I'm really happy for them.

Cannon is reporting 19-21" new..

puts them over 6' since 11/27

[Baroclinic Zone]

I know events of this ilks are subject to skewed results attributed to drifting, so what I would suggest under these circumstances is to sample other areas of land and not just your own property.....if you have a common area, or a neighbor is away or asleep....sneak over and sample the property.

Some may feel strange doing this, but if you want to negate some of the variance that large drifting subjects out measurements to, then I strongly suggest adopting my practice.

I'll do it again after it stops because it would eat at my sole if I had any semebalance of a doubt that I didn't provide BOX with the most accurate storm total possible for my locale, to the best of my ability..

Down here the drifting was minimal do to the relatively warm surface temps. Compaction was more of an issue.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Oh, I know. I'm not yelling at you at all. Just reporting. I thing my friend we had a couple of situations simliar to this. Where a very small ribbon of CF came in, and if you were not in it then you didn't get it. I think December 2003 it happed (19") simliar to Bedford, MA and Blizzard of 2005 were North Woburn had 28", Chelmsford had 27", I had 27", North Wilmington had 25" and Lexington, MA came in with only 21. Very interesting that that has happened a couple or so times with this type of banding.

Well, this was no Dec 2003 in that respect....Raul from Burlington came up with the same measurement as I.

Dec 2003 was for real.....I drove down to my dad's in Woburn ctr and took a bunch of measurements because I couldn't believe it, but it was very real.

Jan 2005 did not have that sharp gradient, either......I submitted that 25" measurement and it was very representative of the area.