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Discuss the Blizz of 2010 - Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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It's the ratios that make all the magic happen.

LOL, this is a first in my lifetime. But again well modeled, warning signs were there.

Where was everyone on this 2 days ago when we were having a brawl over it saying it was a real problem but Matt was called a douch* and I was told we could lock up 2 feet? Weenies were getting tossed everywhere but maybe some good hard discussion next time would help. 7h low tracks that far west from that position are a problem, dry slot proved it yet again. One great CF band saved the day for a decent area otherwise this was a tough on in EMA relative to expectations.

And I've got a plow truck buddy who says 7-8".

Sunday River got mauled, I'm happy.

Moving on, it's not even 1/1 and we all have had a good amount of snow. We probably shouldnt be worried about D15-30 pattern based on current forecasts when the models weren't very good or even within 800 miles D5.

But we all did have a discussion.....who was locking 2'? I think the consensus was 12-18" for many in eastern areas away from the mixing area. I think models were a little generous over ctrl areas with the qpf, but again..it's tough to figure out if it's real or fake, so you look at other things like soundings to check out the microphysics. It was a tough storm from the get go...I mean a few days ago, it looked like it was ots. At least we got a good storm...it's not my fault people throw around the term HECS like candy.

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But we all did have a discussion.....who was locking 2'? I think the consensus was 12-18" for many in eastern areas away from the mixing area. I think models were a little generous over ctrl areas with the qpf, but again..it's tough to figure out if it's real or fake, so you look at other things like soundings to check out the microphysics. It was a tough storm from the get go...I mean a few days ago, it looked like it was ots. At least we got a good storm...it's not my fault people throw around the term HECS like candy.

Part of the problem in central areas was that the best frontogenesis was displaced a bit too far west compared to where models were pegging it. Winceth enhancement over eastern Mass with an impressive amount of low level convergence and a band of max frontogenesis over NY/NJ we had a really stubborn band of subsidence over CT and C MA.

GIven the 700/850mb low tracks I thought we'd do better than we did.

Most places in eastern/central CT won't crack double digits. Snow comes to an end soon in most places here.

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woke up to heavy, heavy snow blowing almost sideways. no measurement yet but looks over a foot so far.

Got into another decent band over the last few hours, but it's collapsing SE of us now. New snow depth looks like it's ranging between 8" and 16" with some higher drifts

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It sounds as if many people were expecting a MECS/HECS and just got a moderate snowfall. I know Matt Crepon in Watertown, CT also said he'd been fringed with this storm. I've had a respectable 12" in Westchester County with some very high winds, but this was more of a NJ storm for the most part.

My forecast got a boost....16.5 at BOS as of 90 minutes ago and still snowing....probably will finish with 18-20 there.

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Part of the problem in central areas was that the best frontogenesis was displaced a bit too far west compared to where models were pegging it. Winceth enhancement over eastern Mass with an impressive amount of low level convergence and a band of max frontogenesis over NY/NJ we had a really stubborn band of subsidence over CT and C MA.

GIven the 700/850mb low tracks I thought we'd do better than we did.

Most places in eastern/central CT won't crack double digits. Snow comes to an end soon in most places here.

I think part of the problem was that even though the H7 low was a favorable track, all it did was rotate warmer, drier air on easterly flow. We never got a good CCB developed. Down in NJ, they had that nice 700mb warm front feature and frontogenesis which took our warm air and just rung out every water molecule there was. Mekster was right in that we never had a good mechanism to ring out qpf. Many times, that H7 low track is great, but I think the problem was too much dry air in the DGZ. Now, we are seeing that back edge trowal/deformation area come in.

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Shhh..don't tell others..thy think it's just light snow here

No reports from MPM, we schooled him on his own backyard, actually they all must be without power but man are they getting crushed. Congrats Jerry!

That band has sagged into the Tolland area , hopefully I can get some more before it drys up.

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