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Discuss the Blizz of 2010 - Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Nantucket, MA had a pressure near 962mb earlier around 730am est. Buoy east of Nantucket with a southerly wind had a pressure of 964mb. Winds gusted to 80mph last night in Orleans, MA. Wet snow accumulated about 2" last night, pretty much snowed all afternoon before changing over to sleet and then rain after 6pm here in Harwich, MA. Total snowfall this season so far is 15" here. Low made is furthest approach to NYC around 900pm last night and then shifted eastward. Amazing winds and pressure with this storm, too bad it went too far to our west-southwest. Hopefully I can get some more snow before this storm quickly moves towards the northeast. I would like to get into one more band before it is all said and done.

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just when you though we'd be in the jackpot here for a change, we still get screwed :thumbsdown: haven't been out either, but I can see it maybe 6-8" and no more. the mountains/foothills weren't forecast to steal the show.

I just went out for a measurement and came up with an average of 6.3"

Yeah, the Whites are getting pounded while interior York County sits virtually high and dry.

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just when you though we'd be in the jackpot here for a change, we still get screwed :thumbsdown: haven't been out either, but I can see it maybe 6-8" and no more. the mountains/foothills weren't forecast to steal the show.

This storm for the most part was good at busting forecasts all over for

Many days. Hopefully u get some wrap around.

I've never seen such widespread blizzard warns for a middling' snow producer.

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Absolutely ripping snow and 40 knot gusts at 1000 ft on the Waterbury/Wolcott line. Monster drifts up here too.

The live traffic update was pretty funny, the guys says well things look pretty good on 91, the traffic cam on Jennings Rd shows near whiteout, he then says well visibility is coming down.

6 inches here, dry slot city.

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The live traffic update was pretty funny, the guys says well things look pretty good on 91, the traffic cam on Jennings Rd shows near whiteout, he then says well visibility is coming down.

6 inches here, dry slot city.

Holy blank. Sorry to hear that. This was definitely a storm of bands.

Probably snowing 2 or 3" per hour here in Waterbury. Real impressive.

I'd guess like 10" or a bit more here?

Recovering up there a bit, good for them. We are still cranking. If it keeps up like this for a couple more hours we will be around 18.

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This storm for the most part was good at busting forecasts all over for

Many days. Hopefully u get some wrap around.

I've never seen such widespread blizzard warns for a middling' snow producer.

I've seen many busts due to ots or cutting too far west but I'm not sure I've ever seen so many projected totals bust from a direct hit.

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Mostly a complete bust in Chelmsford. Due to the blowing and drifting, it's impossible to get a real measurement, but maybe 4". I can still see the grass on the northeast side of my apartment. I was getting dressed for work, but got an e-mail stating we're closed due to the state of emergency. That's a nice bonus, but it doesn't feel earned. That's winter in New England, I guess.

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I've seen many busts due to ots or cutting too far west but I'm not sure I've ever seen so many projected totals bust from a direct hit.

There are a lot of things that go into snowfall forecasting. QPF is overrated many times. Placement and arrangement of mid level lows are critical. The two qpf max was modeled fairly well. The question remaining was what would happen in the in between areas. Models were clearly lighter with qpf maxes on either side. The problem is that the in between area had a real high chance of busting low...but how low do you go? It's a guessing game with that, and that's why we have ranges. In some cases, even the lower end of the range was too low. I'm glad I didn't forecast for this, but when I see a qpf min in the CT valley...that can't be good at all. The other things that come into play are mid level RH and subsidence zones. Those also were evident, but again..it's tough to see how much of a role they play.

One thing is for sure, and that's why I love those 850-500 RH maps....mid level moisture is king. That is a necessary ingredient for big snows....can't be stressed enough.

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Mostly a complete bust in Chelmsford. Due to the blowing and drifting, it's impossible to get a real measurement, but maybe 4". I can still see the grass on the northeast side of my apartment. I was getting dressed for work, but got an e-mail stating we're closed due to the state of emergency. That's a nice bonus, but it doesn't feel earned. That's winter in New England, I guess.

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...

CHELMSFORD 11.0 721 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO

:whistle:

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Yup that 20 dbz, 1 3/4 SM snow does it every time. BLSN makes things look a lot worse than they are with this storm.

It's the ratios that make all the magic happen.

I've seen many busts due to ots or cutting too far west but I'm not sure I've ever seen so many projected totals bust from a direct hit.

LOL, this is a first in my lifetime. But again well modeled, warning signs were there.

There are a lot of things that go into snowfall forecasting. QPF is overrated many times. Placement and arrangement of mid level lows are critical. The two qpf max was modeled fairly well. The question remaining was what would happen in the in between areas. Models were clearly lighter with qpf maxes on either side. The problem is that the in between area had a real high chance of busting low...but how low do you go? It's a guessing game with that, and that's why we have ranges. In some cases, even the lower end of the range was too low. I'm glad I didn't forecast for this, but when I see a qpf min in the CT valley...that can't be good at all. The other things that come into play are mid level RH and subsidence zones. Those also were evident, but again..it's tough to see how much of a role they play.

One thing is for sure, and that's why I love those 850-500 RH maps....mid level moisture is king. That is a necessary ingredient for big snows....can't be stressed enough.

Where was everyone on this 2 days ago when we were having a brawl over it saying it was a real problem but Matt was called a douch* and I was told we could lock up 2 feet? Weenies were getting tossed everywhere but maybe some good hard discussion next time would help. 7h low tracks that far west from that position are a problem, dry slot proved it yet again. One great CF band saved the day for a decent area otherwise this was a tough on in EMA relative to expectations.

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...

CHELMSFORD 11.0 721 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO

And I've got a plow truck buddy who says 7-8".

Sunday River got mauled, I'm happy.

Moving on, it's not even 1/1 and we all have had a good amount of snow. We probably shouldnt be worried about D15-30 pattern based on current forecasts when the models weren't very good or even within 800 miles D5.

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