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Discuss the Blizz of 2010 - Part II

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

I understand your sentiment Jerry, but what if BOS records your phantom 19.2, but everyone else is either less, or far less, and then they think back to all those 20+'s ?

Just look at what is going on regionally - this is becoming much more a wind event than a snow.

Wait....we're probably 60% through the storm.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Wasn't suggesting that at all Will and when they cut back just before sports final three minutes ago looked like you said about 3/4. weird.

LOL

Right where it was modeled and in the classic SNE snow zone. IMO that radar shows why that zone gets so much snow in no suck noreasters. That's the CF/enhancement etc. Without it you'd be dealing with the same hell as everyone else.

It's a cosmic dildo alright. 10 days of following it and for probably 70% it was a boner, for 30% a bonanza.

It's going to give me the cosmic dildo for the next 5 hours as I sit in mostly heavier precip, am cold enough at 850+ but seven whales farted off PTown and warmed the low levels too much. The swirls caused by Bob's 10' snow drifts will downslope me later on.

The Great Cosmic Dildo Blizzard of 2010

I get that quite often, as well, but the ageostrophic flow was a bit too strong for me, this time.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Other than the majority of people in the state of Massachusetts but yeah....all I'm saying it is a very high impact storm because of the dense population center which is near the jackpot.

The 3 million people inside of 128 will be happy... the rest of us will think the wind is good.

All this time I could have been watching porn, but nooooooo.... I had to get sucked in :arrowhead:

This is still fun

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Looping the current water vapor imagery pretty much says it all...I mean the storm eventually came further west that originally modeled...and now lots of folks have to contend with dry air problems aloft. One man's trash is another man's treasure...it's just that places further west such as NJ was the recipient of the treasure. There's only so much forcing for heavy precip to go around.

overall this is not a run of the mill noreaster...the obs from NJ/NYC/LI have been sick...some of the best obs I've EVER seem come out of Long Island tonight.

I just can't get one to track right.....Absolutely amazing after the avoloution of this, that it ended up too far WEST.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Looping the current water vapor imagery pretty much says it all...I mean the storm eventually came further west that originally modeled...and now lots of folks have to contend with dry air problems aloft. One man's trash is another man's treasure...it's just that places further west such as NJ was the recipient of the treasure.

ughhh I thought this was a possibility...the 18z NAM yesterday came in way west and I didn't take the bite but I thought it was certainly possible it would happen like that. I made a few posts about it too. When you see models depict a trough as negatively tilted as this one, and especially when it does so where this one did you always, always think west, west, west.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Looping the current water vapor imagery pretty much says it all...I mean the storm eventually came further west that originally modeled...and now lots of folks have to contend with dry air problems aloft. One man's trash is another man's treasure...it's just that places further west such as NJ was the recipient of the treasure. There's only so much forcing for heavy precip to go around.

overall this is not a run of the mill noreaster...the obs from NJ/NYC/LI have been sick...some of the best obs I've EVER seem come out of Long Island tonight.

I know you love banding physics, but this is just sick down there. Your folks must be getting rocked too.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Storms don't always have ccb monsters. When you see H5 lows come up from the south , but then elongate n-s, it can be a sign that it will probably punch some dry air into the column on the east side. At that point, sometimes snow will be confined to the dynamics of mid level lows, or perhaps from a developing ccb or CF convergence area. Every low is different. I think some of us mentioned the two qpf max area with some having trouble away from these qpf max's.

Give it a chance for some in eastern areas too. Many said 12-18" for eastern areas away from mix. Many may see 12, but everyone only focuses on 18.

Some are already approaching 18" not from from KTAN. Totally understand the dynamics of the 5h elongating like it did. That signal was very clear for days. When I tried arguing yesterday that this was not a favorable position for an epic regionwide snowstorm I could have used your support, matt too!

The only positive may be I get enough rain to wash the cars tonight. I know everyone thinks I'm getting backend snow, but it just doesn't look to me like the layers are scoured out until about 6am and the precip per NAM is about a wrap at that point. I'm hoping the models are wrong and we can at least pull out 2-3 more to sled on. We're probably still net 2" right now and there's around 5-6" on the ground to start.

Scott all I was saying is there are not many times you can go back and look and see a 965mb low that has a precip shield north of it that is really about 30 miles wide at the peak. It 100% goes to show how important it is to have proper low/mid level placement.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Great stuff in eastern NY, Berkshires, and NW CT... widespread 1-2"/hr rates with a band of 3"/hr rates... nice.

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...CONTINUES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...MID

HUDSON VALLEY FROM KINGSTON NORTH AND WEST...GREATER CAPITAL

DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES.

AN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW APPEARS TO BE

PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS THE

EXTREME SOUTHERN GREENS SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL TACONICS...SLOWLY

HEADING WESTWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS BAND OF INTENSE SNOW

COULD REACH INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY BY 100 AM.

ELSEWHERE...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE FALLING

ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL FALL THROUGH

100 AM...HEAVIEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TACONICS.

IN ADDITION...THERE WILL GUSTY NORTH WINDS UP TO 35

MPH...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND SOME DRIFTING

OF THE SNOW.

TRAVELING IS DISCOURAGED IN THE WARNED AREA.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Looping the current water vapor imagery pretty much says it all...I mean the storm eventually came further west that originally modeled...and now lots of folks have to contend with dry air problems aloft. One man's trash is another man's treasure...it's just that places further west such as NJ was the recipient of the treasure. There's only so much forcing for heavy precip to go around.

overall this is not a run of the mill noreaster...the obs from NJ/NYC/LI have been sick...some of the best obs I've EVER seem come out of Long Island tonight.

Based on what?

"Have been sick" is subjective - I agree. But, plenty of systems gone by the wayside did this. This storm just isn't coming together 'that way'. I'm at 5.5" and thinking maybe 3 more.. HOLY SHIST, 8" of snow!

No, wind is impressive, but this is a weird deal.

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Arnold214

Arnold214

Posted
Posted

I know you love banding physics, but this is just sick down there. Your folks must be getting rocked too.

NJ was the recipient of one of the most impressive shows of mesoscale banding I have ever seen. When you take a look at the 00z UA chart, it makes sense. Intense banding is almost always on the W/NW side of the 700 low and/or backbent warm front. It's where it's supposed to be. It so happens that much of SNE is now east of that feature and basically in the inflow air to the band. When that happens, you don't have much forcing for heavy precip...and it generally follows more of an ebb and flow pattern of intensity as drier air and weaker forcing floats on through.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I think the emotional sways have gotten worse since I joined the board 2 1/2 years ago, to be honest.

Other then that, this is one of those bands that are historic for certain areas.. my snow rates are like 2"+ an hr..

They are far worse. I think the main problem is we have more people now and with more model data readily available than even a few years ago....people focus on the best case scenario too often. As soon as they see 2" of qpf, they immediately want 22" of snow and will be disappointed with 15".

There's a reason we don;t see 2 foot snowstorms every year despite models showing them quite a bit more frequently. People just need to enjoy a huge storm that still likely has some surprises up its sleeve with still 8+ hours to go....when we were modeled to get whiffed or scraped 60 hours ago.

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