Pattern Change.

[Voyager]

I'm hoping for a pattern change. Dry windy weather with little snow is not my cup of tea.

This +1000

[wxmx]

I doubt there will be any kind of sustained warmup east of the Rockies. High latitude blocking is looking more likely to return (well, it won't completely go away). The nightly polar jet has been constantly under attack, and will continue to be so.

[okie333]

I doubt there will be any kind of sustained warmup east of the Rockies. High latitude blocking is looking more likely to return (well, it won't completely go away). The nightly polar jet has been constantly under attack, and will continue to be so.

+1, and there are compelling reasons to believe that the brief, small warmup will be replaced with a major cooldown

[NortheastPAWx]

+1, and there are compelling reasons to believe that the brief, small warmup will be replaced with a major cooldown

Unless it comes with snow chances (And NOT those junk 1-2" events) it'd better not verify.

[OhioValleyWx]

3 weeks ago I felt we would go warm for a few weeks but looking over data and looking at current trends I have to agree that the "WARM UP" is more of a surge or an island of warmth in an ocean of cold. A bit cliche' but the point is made. I think if you are south of 40, though, it is going to much more difficult to get sustained cold but still have cold shots. I am on the I-70 corridor and as I said 3 weeks ago I felt I would get into the warm regime for a period but instead of being on the southern edge of cold or northern edge of southern ridge domination, I have to shift that line south into Kentucky or Northern Tennessee. I will still get a warm shot or two but am leaning much more towards being in a cold regime now. Will be interesting but it should lead to more potent storms in the Tenn Valley and Ohio Valley. Of course then you run the risk of a spike before the storm and get cold rain and back end junk.

Josh

[RIC Airport]

Most any reasonable analog for the past 3-4 weeks suggest a roll forward of very warm temperatures for the next several weeks if not the entire month of January. Not to say winter is over, but I would imagine the greatest negative departures against average for the season are done after this week. Some brief examples:

December 1989 - January 1990

Late December 2004 (the last major Hampton roads snowstorm before today)

December 2005 - January 2006

I don't underestimate the potential for warmth the next several weeks even if it cannot be sustained more than a few days at a time...and would be very surprised if >70*F does not occur at least once or twice in January for RIC and points SE. Furthermore many of the analog years listed above had nearly unimaginable stretches of time where even nocturnal temperatures fail to fall below freezing.

Although it's pretty easy to hit 70-degrees during any given winter in C VA, I have a feeling that we are in a different regime this time around. RIC just recorded its 6th snowstorm 6 inches or more in less than 2 years. I think some of the older Nina analogs might be more respresentative, particuarly with the enhanced blocking we've seen this season.

[VAwxman]

I doubt there will be any kind of sustained warmup east of the Rockies. High latitude blocking is looking more likely to return (well, it won't completely go away). The nightly polar jet has been constantly under attack, and will continue to be so.

Really been interesting tracking what's been going on in the Eurasian sector. The stratosphere overall has been cold and the zonal winds have been typical of a nina / +QBO state on our side of the world, but we have been seeing these MT spikes and subsequent warmings in Eurasia. These have relaxed the last week to ten days, but another one may be on the horizon.

[okie333]

Really been interesting tracking what's been going on in the Eurasian sector. The stratosphere overall has been cold and the zonal winds have been typical of a nina / +QBO state on our side of the world, but we have been seeing these MT spikes and subsequent warmings in Eurasia. These have relaxed the last week to ten days, but another one may be on the horizon.

No kidding!

Day 0:

Day 10:

[nj2va]

Bring it on. After todays debacle I will take some warmth. Snow to the N/S/E/W of me. Makes me want to puke.

At least it'll be better for us come Friday when we aren't dealing with 25" of snow melting in 50+ degree weather.

[Whacker77]

If you really want to know what snow debacles look like, move to Louisville. We are in the prime spot for misses. Storms coming from the Plains generally peter out as they move through the area. Often, it's because they transfer their energy to a costal low. Storms coming from the southwest often produce so much warm air advection that the rain/snow or snow/sleet line comes just north of the city. Six years ago, we had heavy sleet at 19 degrees while 20 miles north saw 30 inches of snow. Don't get me wrong, we do get a storm every now and then.

As for January, the charts above show the NAO has been negatove since the first week of October. That's at least going to leave the door open for cold shots if the NAO stays negative. As the article I discussed from the climate change forum noted, blocking seems to be likely for the rest of the winter. I think la nina gets its shots in, but they are muted shots. Hopefully, the blowtorch is off the table.

[wxmx]

Really been interesting tracking what's been going on in the Eurasian sector. The stratosphere overall has been cold and the zonal winds have been typical of a nina / +QBO state on our side of the world, but we have been seeing these MT spikes and subsequent warmings in Eurasia. These have relaxed the last week to ten days, but another one may be on the horizon.

Yep, this winter it has been more of a down-top-down thing with all these eurasian mountain torque induced waves. I'm convinced also that we have a "receptive" stratosphere, thanks to the low sun activity and consequent surplus of ozone... but I agree that the triggers appear to be tropospheric.

[wxmx]

No kidding!

Day 0:

Day 10:

Yeah, I saw your post in the waves thread. It'll be interesting to watch how things evolve, but I have no reason to think this one couldn't affect tropospheric high latitude heights, since it has been the theme the whole season.

[DCMetroWinston]

As for January, the charts above show the NAO has been negatove since the first week of October. That's at least going to leave the door open for cold shots if the NAO stays negative. As the article I discussed from the climate change forum noted, blocking seems to be likely for the rest of the winter. I think la nina gets its shots in, but they are muted shots. Hopefully, the blowtorch is off the table.

I like the way you talk.....

[BlizzardNole]

I thought for sure we were going to go mild for a long time starting around New Year's...looks like a big fat NO according to the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day discussion from this afternoon:

"...THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) INDEX WILL BECOME HIGHLY NEGATIVE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. THE NEGATIVE NAO INDEX

IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING A LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT AND SOUTHERN GREENLAND..."

[spit]

Yep, this winter it has been more of a down-top-down thing with all these eurasian mountain torque induced waves. I'm convinced also that we have a "receptive" stratosphere, thanks to the low sun activity and consequent surplus of ozone... but I agree that the triggers appear to be tropospheric.

Hey, Interesting, I am not familiar of the correlation of ozone in the stratosphere and tropospheric variables. Could you give me some research on that?

[okie333]

Hey, Interesting, I am not familiar of the correlation of ozone in the stratosphere and tropospheric variables. Could you give me some research on that?

Warm polar stratosphere leads to negative Arctic Oscillation basically.

[wxmx]

Warm polar stratosphere leads to negative Arctic Oscillation basically.

Basically, though the polar stratosphere hasn't warmed on average this season, but the planetary wave action has been constant and aimed at the Artic thanks to a more poleward E-P flux away from the equator and centered close to Greenland.

Hey, Interesting, I am not familiar of the correlation of ozone in the stratosphere and tropospheric variables. Could you give me some research on that?

A couple of links that explain the relation of planetary waves/E-P flux/Ozone

http://citeseerx.ist...p=rep1&type=pdf

http://www.jstage.js.../80/4B/849/_pdf

Basically there's a battle between the +QBO/Niña vs low solar/planetary wave activity and the latter team is currently winning, though is not a rout by any means.

[Jebman]

I'm way out of my league on this issue, but over in the climate change forum there is an interesting article discussing how the low solar activity may be affecting the AO, NAO, and PDO. Essentially, the sun activity may be promoting the negative phases of the AO, NAO, and PDO. The author of the piece, Sharp, believes the AO and NAO will remain negative for the winter and will produce a northern hemisphere winter like ones seen in the Little Ice Age. Well, I don't know about that, but I found Larry Cosgrove's thoughts interesting because he sees the positive move of the AO and NAO to be transitory this week. If Larry is right and the indicies will return to the negative phase, then the theory proposed by Sharp and linked in the climate change forum may be right. Regardless of whether the AO and NAO lock in to the negative phases this winter, it does seem the the PDO has been very critical to our winter weather. The PDO seemd to move negative about three years ago and the weather has been much colder since.

Love this post +10000000000000000

I have been dreaming of a Little Ice Age-like winter all of my life.

My problem is, I live too damn far south.

I wish I lived at 10000 feet in the Canadien Rockies. No more milquetoast cold fronts and half inch blizzards for me!

[BlizzardNole]

Jeb you are a riot LOL! Have you thought of visiting that B&B in Davis, WV that a poster on here owns and runs? The winter weather out there is outrageous -- the area is nicknamed "Little Canada." If you could time it when a big upslope event is underway you'd be in heaven.

[Kevin Druff]

<br />Jeb you are a riot LOL! Have you thought of visiting that B&B in Davis, WV that a poster on here owns and runs? The winter weather out there is outrageous -- the area is nicknamed "Little Canada." If you could time it when a big upslope event is underway you'd be in heaven.

Unlike most on this forum, I'd rather had 5" of snow and -5* than 25" of snow and 25*. I just love cold weather. If it doesn't take your breath away when you step outside, it's not cold enough.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Unlike most on this forum, I'd rather had 5" of snow and -5* than 25" of snow and 25*. I just love cold weather. If it doesn't take your breath away when you step outside, it's not cold enough.

well said!!

[Ottawa Blizzard]

3 weeks ago I felt we would go warm for a few weeks but looking over data and looking at current trends I have to agree that the "WARM UP" is more of a surge or an island of warmth in an ocean of cold. A bit cliche' but the point is made. I think if you are south of 40, though, it is going to much more difficult to get sustained cold but still have cold shots. I am on the I-70 corridor and as I said 3 weeks ago I felt I would get into the warm regime for a period but instead of being on the southern edge of cold or northern edge of southern ridge domination, I have to shift that line south into Kentucky or Northern Tennessee. I will still get a warm shot or two but am leaning much more towards being in a cold regime now. Will be interesting but it should lead to more potent storms in the Tenn Valley and Ohio Valley. Of course then you run the risk of a spike before the storm and get cold rain and back end junk.

Josh

Do you think my region will get a period of sustained below normal temps? It's been semi-cold this month, but nothing extreme; we've been averaging out normal.

[OhioValleyWx]

Do you think my region will get a period of sustained below normal temps? It's been semi-cold this month, but nothing extreme; we've been averaging out normal.

I hate being a fence straddler but it is going to come down to the blocking scheme and the long wave trough flow. At this time I am not 100% sure how all of that will shape out. If signs that are showing another H5 block over the Davis Straits and Greenland, cold air will come down from the pole towards the central and eastern part of the United States. They key for you being in Ottawa is that what is -15 or so in the lower Lakes and Ohio Valley could only be -5 in Ottawa. Colder then normal but nothing bitter or outstanding. With non modified Arctic air, temperatures could be similar down here as they are up there so it is a wait and see game. I wish I could be more direct with you because I do not like being wishy-washy but I have not seen this much blocking until last winter and now this is the first La Nina I have seen with the inordinate amount of blocking possible, so I am learning with others. I personally believe this is the start of colder times Northern Hemisphere wide but with you living closer to the mega block, temps for you will not be as extreme as other places during this time.

As I said, I have not seen this much blocking in my life time and with La Nina, the eastern US and SE Canada can run warm but I believe we are in a different pattern then what we have seen in decades so I am unclear but to give you my best opinion, you will NOT see bitter cold temps but you could still be below normal for long stretches.

Josh

[Jebman]

Fantastic climatic regime we are living in, especially for the Eastern CONUS during what amounts to at least a moderate Nina!

Though I am disappointed by only a half inch of snow here in N VA (most of which has already melted or blown away), I must say that most Mid Atlantic'ers will fare much better thru this upcoming warming than we would have if we had gotten Belmar'ed.

Imagine N VA/DCA with 32 inches of fresh powder, only to face upper 50s high temps by Saturday, with lows in the high 40s amid south winds.

It would have been pure agony.

Sure I am disappointed and crying sour grapes here - But we will hit the low 60s on New Year's Day and lows will be fortunate to fall below 50. We are about to go from midwinter freeze to outright spring conditions in mere days.

This is going to be a HUGE change operationally for many of us who have been forced to run from house to car, car to store, and back from it being so unbelievably bone chilling cold for the past THREE WEEKS. Now it will be outright short sleeve weather in Washington for New Years.

Not only will we not have to suffer thru the ignominy of watching our precious snow melt, we won't be forced to slush through slushy watery snow for days as the warm spring airmass destroys it. There is nothing worse than the indignity of watching those snowpiles you so heroically shoveled being reduced to ugly piles of dirty snow then mud and crap and trying to walk thru that slop and punching down into about 8 inches of freezing cold water and your shoes get soaked straight to the bone.

This is the horror of what Belmar and NYC are about to suffer through in about four days.

The only silver lining, if indeed there is any to be found in all of this, is that we are not facing a heavy soaking rainstorm into the bargain.

Hopefully the monstrous -NAO -AO will redevelop and send refreshing waves of pure Vodka cold back down into our backyards with the potential promise of snows down the road.

Now one thing I'd've LOVED to see, was DCA getting 32 inches of pure powder snow back on Dec 10 followed by three weeks of blissfully cold temps.

I hope to G-d that these low sunspot times bring on another extended Maunder Minimum climate regime.

I have been dreaming of THAT all my life and never imagined that one day it could possibly have some chance of developing!!! Just look at this unbelievable moderate Nina with all this incredible blocking!!!

SINCE WHEN do we see 15 feet of snow in the Sierras in a Moderate Nina???????? They should be a bit drier, don't you think?

[nzucker]

I wouldn't worry too much about the cutter, Jeb. I doubt you'll get into the 60s, and the pattern looks fine afterwards for more snow/cold weather.

[poleshiftnow]

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I hate being a fence straddler but it is going to come down to the blocking scheme and the long wave trough flow. At this time I am not 100% sure how all of that will shape out. If signs that are showing another H5 block over the Davis Straits and Greenland, cold air will come down from the pole towards the central and eastern part of the United States. They key for you being in Ottawa is that what is -15 or so in the lower Lakes and Ohio Valley could only be -5 in Ottawa. Colder then normal but nothing bitter or outstanding. With non modified Arctic air, temperatures could be similar down here as they are up there so it is a wait and see game. I wish I could be more direct with you because I do not like being wishy-washy but I have not seen this much blocking until last winter and now this is the first La Nina I have seen with the inordinate amount of blocking possible, so I am learning with others. I personally believe this is the start of colder times Northern Hemisphere wide but with you living closer to the mega block, temps for you will not be as extreme as other places during this time.

As I said, I have not seen this much blocking in my life time and with La Nina, the eastern US and SE Canada can run warm but I believe we are in a different pattern then what we have seen in decades so I am unclear but to give you my best opinion, you will NOT see bitter cold temps but you could still be below normal for long stretches.

Josh

Thank you for the informative write up. As I said in another thread, this is a prime example of how northern Canada may indeed be in for warmer winters will less ice cover, despite high population areas perhaps being in for colder winters relative to what they're used to. Everything is relative and what may seem like global warming to the Inuit of the high arctic and Labrador may seem like global cooling to people in the Ohio valley, lower lakes and western Europe. Poeple like Joe Bastardi and david Suzuki may both be right, ironically enough. Temperatures in the Canadian high arctic may indeed warm up significantly in the next few decades, but not due to human actions, simply due to natural variations.

[nj2va]

I know I've seen these maps before and I can guess what the colors represent but can someone explain what we're looking at here? Thanks!

[poleshiftnow]

I know I've seen these maps before and I can guess what the colors represent but can someone explain what we're looking at here? Thanks!

Its showing a nice Block setting up for mid Jan that means cold and stormy for the east.

[nj2va]

Its showing a nice Block setting up for mid Jan that means cold and stormy for the east.

Ah, very good, thanks. Glad I know how to read these now; can't help but be proud of my noob self for finding the block too after you explained what it shows.