Pattern Change.

[Anyweather]

The local NWS discussion recently mentioned a strong storm was needed to change the recent below normal temperature pattern. He thought this storm would do it. What is the feeling out there about the change(RIC is slated to be 60 F New years day). Is it a short respite or something more entrenched. It appears to me that a Block keeps trying to develop over Greenland according to the European, altough much lower in Latitude. Any thoughts?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Personally, I'll be glad to see the end of this block - at least in its current form. It seems that 2010 has seen places that aren't supposed to get winter get it and those that are supposed to (and in many respects rely on it for their economy) not.

[marked8]

I am looking forward to firing up the grill later this week and not having to wear a heavy coat.

[afvet89]

Personally, I'll be glad to see the end of this block - at least in its current form. It seems that 2010 has seen places that aren't supposed to get winter get it and those that are supposed to (and in many respects rely on it for their economy) not.

I totally agree. This block has done nothing for our area, same as last yr .We cant get snow for nothing. I welcome a pattern change.

[RIC_WX]

The local NWS discussion recently mentioned a strong storm was needed to change the recent below normal temperature pattern. He thought this storm would do it. What is the feeling out there about the change(RIC is slated to be 60 F New years day). Is it a short respite or something more entrenched. It appears to me that a Block keeps trying to develop over Greenland according to the European, altough much lower in Latitude. Any thoughts?

Most any reasonable analog for the past 3-4 weeks suggest a roll forward of very warm temperatures for the next several weeks if not the entire month of January. Not to say winter is over, but I would imagine the greatest negative departures against average for the season are done after this week. Some brief examples:

December 1989 - January 1990

Late December 2004 (the last major Hampton roads snowstorm before today)

December 2005 - January 2006

I don't underestimate the potential for warmth the next several weeks even if it cannot be sustained more than a few days at a time...and would be very surprised if >70*F does not occur at least once or twice in January for RIC and points SE. Furthermore many of the analog years listed above had nearly unimaginable stretches of time where even nocturnal temperatures fail to fall below freezing.

[wxtogo]

DT's Thoughts

Wxrisk.com LOOKING AHEAD-- Major warm up coming DEC 30-31-JAN 1-2. Temps could Reach near 65 degrees DEC 31 &JAN 1!! But Much talked above VERY mild JAN is in Trouble. Strong Model agreement that Cold pattern Returns Jan 3. Two *POSSIBLE*

winter weather events JAN 7 & JAN 11. There are good "signals" that one o...r both of these events MIGHT be snowy. MORE on this on the web site MONDAY MORNING

[midatlanticweather]

DT's Thoughts

Wxrisk.com LOOKING AHEAD-- Major warm up coming DEC 30-31-JAN 1-2. Temps could Reach near 65 degrees DEC 31 &JAN 1!! But Much talked above VERY mild JAN is in Trouble. Strong Model agreement that Cold pattern Returns Jan 3. Two *POSSIBLE*

winter weather events JAN 7 & JAN 11. There are good "signals" that one o...r both of these events MIGHT be snowy. MORE on this on the web site MONDAY MORNING

Great post. This looks like a short warm up. And it may re-align a few things. We need some re-alignment for me!

[clskinsfan]

Bring it on. After todays debacle I will take some warmth. Snow to the N/S/E/W of me. Makes me want to puke.

[Lee]

Most any reasonable analog for the past 3-4 weeks suggest a roll forward of very warm temperatures for the next several weeks if not the entire month of January. Not to say winter is over, but I would imagine the greatest negative departures against average for the season are done after this week. Some brief examples:

December 1989 - January 1990

Late December 2004 (the last major Hampton roads snowstorm before today)

December 2005 - January 2006

I don't underestimate the potential for warmth the next several weeks even if it cannot be sustained more than a few days at a time...and would be very surprised if >70*F does not occur at least once or twice in January for RIC and points SE. Furthermore many of the analog years listed above had nearly unimaginable stretches of time where even nocturnal temperatures fail to fall below freezing.

That 89-90 flip was an unusual one though. Many years that started that way did not have that sort of flip so, i wouldn't use it. The others,well, some similarities, I suppose but not nearly as prominent of a cold pattern in the east those Decembers nor the sustained blocking from what I recollect.

[BlizzardNole]

I am with you guys -- after today's heartbreaker, I am hoping for a SE ridge to lock in and stay in place for a long time.

[Qaanaaq]

The local NWS discussion recently mentioned a strong storm was needed to change the recent below normal temperature pattern. He thought this storm would do it. What is the feeling out there about the change(RIC is slated to be 60 F New years day). Is it a short respite or something more entrenched. It appears to me that a Block keeps trying to develop over Greenland according to the European, altough much lower in Latitude. Any thoughts?

There have been some posts by people who discussed work by Heather Archambault,; she studied the correlation between weather regime transitions and major precipitation events impacting the northeast USA. So, the storm doesn't do the trick, but reflects processes that are in motion that may play a role in spawning such a storm (Archambault Storm).

cheers

[pcbjr]

I am with you guys -- after today's heartbreaker, I am hoping for a SE ridge to lock in and stay in place for a long time.

To each his/her own - but I respectfully feel just the opposite.

[NortheastPAWx]

I hope it gets up to 60 next week. As a Penguins fan though, this does concern me re: Winter Classic.

[adelphi_sky]

I sure would like the reset button hit after all this cold and nothing to show for it.

[Kevin Druff]

Pattern has been pretty good for me. would have preferred more snow today, but a few inches every 12 days all winter would be acceptable.

[DCMetroWinston]

Larry Cosgrove is throwing cold water on the notion that January overall will be warm in the East. He says next weekend's warm will be short-lived, as cold will return shortly after the New Year begins. He thinks January will remain colder than average in the East. He says look out for another East Coast snowstorm that will reach down to I-40 in the first full week of January.

[Whacker77]

I'm way out of my league on this issue, but over in the climate change forum there is an interesting article discussing how the low solar activity may be affecting the AO, NAO, and PDO. Essentially, the sun activity may be promoting the negative phases of the AO, NAO, and PDO. The author of the piece, Sharp, believes the AO and NAO will remain negative for the winter and will produce a northern hemisphere winter like ones seen in the Little Ice Age. Well, I don't know about that, but I found Larry Cosgrove's thoughts interesting because he sees the positive move of the AO and NAO to be transitory this week. If Larry is right and the indicies will return to the negative phase, then the theory proposed by Sharp and linked in the climate change forum may be right. Regardless of whether the AO and NAO lock in to the negative phases this winter, it does seem the the PDO has been very critical to our winter weather. The PDO seemd to move negative about three years ago and the weather has been much colder since.

[okie333]

The January temperature pattern change is a bust. A "January Thaw" may occur in a somewhat muted form, but from what I'm seeing in the stratosphere the cold will return in a very big way near the 20th of the month. There could possibly be a change to a wetter pattern occurring, though, due to the MJO.

[Feb]

I'm hoping for a pattern change. Dry windy weather with little snow is not my cup of tea.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I'm way out of my league on this issue, but over in the climate change forum there is an interesting article discussing how the low solar activity may be affecting the AO, NAO, and PDO. Essentially, the sun activity may be promoting the negative phases of the AO, NAO, and PDO. The author of the piece, Sharp, believes the AO and NAO will remain negative for the winter and will produce a northern hemisphere winter like ones seen in the Little Ice Age. Well, I don't know about that, but I found Larry Cosgrove's thoughts interesting because he sees the positive move of the AO and NAO to be transitory this week. If Larry is right and the indicies will return to the negative phase, then the theory proposed by Sharp and linked in the climate change forum may be right. Regardless of whether the AO and NAO lock in to the negative phases this winter, it does seem the the PDO has been very critical to our winter weather. The PDO seemd to move negative about three years ago and the weather has been much colder since.

I can only imagine that the Little Ice Age saw some fairly mild and snowless (outside of the lake effect belts) conditions in my region, if last winter and the start of this one are anything to go by.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The January temperature pattern change is a bust. A "January Thaw" may occur in a somewhat muted form, but from what I'm seeing in the stratosphere the cold will return in a very big way near the 20th of the month. There could possibly be a change to a wetter pattern occurring, though, due to the MJO.

I notice that Bastardi is beginning to hint that more cold may move into the Canadian Prairies and US upper midwest, thus creating the battle zone, as he calls it, in the Great lakes and northern New England. We'll see. His overall forecast seems to call for winter to be over come January south of I-80

[okie333]

I notice that Bastardi is beginning to hint that more cold may move into the Canadian Prairies and US upper midwest, thus creating the battle zone, as he calls it, in the Great lakes and northern New England. We'll see. His overall forecast seems to call for winter to be over come January south of I-80

Yep, and what will the stratospherically-induced mega-negative AO do to that cold air?

[RIC_WX]

The January temperature pattern change is a bust. A "January Thaw" may occur in a somewhat muted form, but from what I'm seeing in the stratosphere the cold will return in a very big way near the 20th of the month.

So 3 weeks of warmth in the time of year most favored for cold is a bust? Even a mild January will have a few cold periods, usually.

[Whacker77]

I notice that Bastardi is beginning to hint that more cold may move into the Canadian Prairies and US upper midwest, thus creating the battle zone, as he calls it, in the Great lakes and northern New England. We'll see. His overall forecast seems to call for winter to be over come January south of I-80

I don't pay for Bastardi's columns, but from what I've seen, he had been pretty insistant the cold would back off in the east once January began. Most recently, I saw him on Greta Van Susteran's show saying just that. Having reviewed his maps for the winter, him saying the cold would work its way into the upper midwest is consistent with his winter maps. It's the areas on Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio were he has the battle ground in play. Based on what you've written, he seems to be holding to his guns. It is interesting to see several forecasters begin to question whether Janaury warms up as had been expected. As Don Sutherland has shown, extreme blocking as we have seen tends to return.

[okie333]

So 3 weeks of warmth in the time of year most favored for cold is a bust? Even a mild January will have a few cold periods, usually.

Muted is the key word here. It will be either very weak (as in near-average), very short-lived (as in one pre-frontal warmup), or both.

[northpittweather]

Pretty Much i see record warmth ahead of front then extreme cold!!!!!

[Amped]

Warm for 10 days, Greenland blovk rebuilds, cold for 10 days. It looks like that kind of a cycle.

[JBG]

I totally agree. This block has done nothing for our area, same as last yr .We cant get snow for nothing. I welcome a pattern change.

Finally we have snow though until today we couldn't "get snow for nothing".

[Srain]

This has been discussed...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/4123-why-the-final-week-of-dec-is-trouble/

[okie333]

This has been discussed...

http://www.americanw...dec-is-trouble/

This thread is about what happens after that other thread.