Ed Lizard Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wouldn't take much of a Westward shift to get that tight QPF gradient to back through DCA/BWI and make the entire I-95 Megalopolis happy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm going storm cancel for DCA and BWI unless this begins to pivot back to the NW very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 12z GFS initialized with the low @ 1000 mb and east of obxx... As of now it is actually @ 992 mb and just south of OBX.. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 12z GFS initialized with the low @ 1000 mb and east of obxx... As of now it is actually @ 992 mb and just south of OBX.. FWIW Great catch! I don't know how useful the models are at this point other than to track the warm up, and to look for the next 300+ hour threat. But thank you for posting the 12z stuff guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS and NAM continue to cut precip up the coast to NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 And as sure as the 18Z NAM 24 hours before a storm showing 4 inches liquid...the GFS slices precip like a butcher preparing a salami..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 And as sure as the 18Z NAM 24 hours before a storm showing 4 inches liquid...the GFS slices precip like a butcher preparing a salami..... 12z nam and latest srefs are much wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 And as sure as the 18Z NAM 24 hours before a storm showing 4 inches liquid...the GFS slices precip like a butcher preparing a salami..... GFS always does that when the storm is underway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS and NAM continue to cut precip up the coast to NYC... NAM looked better than previous couple of runs for NJ/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS always does that when the storm is underway Meanwhile, its been snowing here since 9:30am and the roads are already snowcovered and snow is blowing and drifting. There was 0 virga, as soon as the radar started showing flakes, it started snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 12z GFS initialized with the low @ 1000 mb and east of obxx... As of now it is actually @ 992 mb and just south of OBX.. FWIW The 12Z GFS initialization data is from 7am EST. This implies that it the storm is slower, but not necessarily stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wouldn't take much of a Westward shift to get that tight QPF gradient to back through DCA/BWI and make the entire I-95 Megalopolis happy... For those in NJ and pts. north and east, congrats, for the rest of us, read on... No more wishcasting, please. The NAM sniffed out the trends by 0Z. GFS as well but NAM has been quite reliable since 0Z For anyone in the Mid-Atlantic still wishcasting, check out the deep moisture convergence. This occurring out along the warm front associated with the storm and demonstrates where the action will trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesny Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The models have been very consistent on putting the sweet spot in NYC metro and Boston. Someone may very well get over 2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Sounds like this was relatively well handled by the NWS by focusing on NYC and Boston, though not perfectly by any stretch of the imagination. We were way too fast beyond day 4, and a little too wet/little too snowy in the Mid-Atlantic as the event got close. The models have been very consistent on putting the sweet spot in NYC metro and Boston. Someone may very well get over 2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Sounds like this was relatively well handled by the NWS by focusing on NYC and Boston, though not perfectly by any stretch of the imagination. We were way too fast beyond day 4, and a little too wet/little too snowy in the Mid-Atlantic as the event got close. Given the models changing wildly during the past 5 days, I have to agree. Looks underdone in SE Virginia, and maybe a little too slow to alert NYC, but overall considering, a decent grade. I will have to say that the 12z gfs from a couple of days ago that was thrown out-- that looks like a poor decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Throwing it out for the DC area was fine. Maybe not so fine for New England though. We'll see how much they get...then we can see how everything verifies. We finally started flurrying here at 1 pm...and the flurries continue. Despite this, it is not wet-bulbing, if anything the dewpoint continues to sink as the wind increases. For a time, you could see the solar disk (faintly) through the nimbostratus around 1:30 pm. A terrible sign for accumulating precipitation, regardless of type. DR Given the models changing wildly during the past 5 days, I have to agree. Looks underdone in SE Virginia, and maybe a little too slow to alert NYC, but overall considering, a decent grade. I will have to say that the 12z gfs from a couple of days ago that was thrown out-- that looks like a poor decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Seems like next time we all need to believe the NAM inside of 48 hours. Seems to have been spot on as far as precip in and near DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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