6Z Boxing Day Storm Models.

[Ed Lizard]

Sharp gradient around DC area on 6Z NAM

Still snowing much of Northeast. 30 hour low position not radically different than Euro, best I can tell.

[SnowGoose69]

The 06Z NAM looks like a re-creation of 12/30/00, except its 10 hours later and its a deeper system.

[VAsnowlvr82]

Can somebody list the current pressure vrs the forecasted pressure?

[mdwx]

Latest RUC hits Eastern Shore of MD, NE corner and eastern fringe of 95 with heavy snows this afternoon and evening 984MB of MD coast

NY is going to get hammered

[mdwx]

Can somebody list the current pressure vrs the forecasted pressure?

Last I saw was 1000 currently both nam and ruc were forecasting 1004 I believe

[lsukev]

Last I saw was 1000 currently both nam and ruc were forecasting 1004 I believe

I found a 998 off the coast of NC, and pressures were still rapidly falling. No telling how far they are away from the center, but from the 0Z GFS, the lowest pressure around this location and time should be 998, so it's likely it is lower, unless that buoy is right under the center, which, judging from the wind direction of the buoy and others around, it likely isn't.

http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41013

[mdwx]

She needs to start turning the corner

I use wxtap radar and western edge of precip hasn't moved past hour it will begin to backbuild as the storm continues to deepen.. That 998 is a good sign for areas west of 95

Take a look at the water vapor, really gives you a good visual

[lsukev]

I use wxtap radar and western edge of precip hasn't moved past hour it will begin to backbuild as the storm continues to deepen.. That 998 is a good sign for areas west of 95

Take a look at the water vapor, really gives you a good visual

Yeah, looks like the trough is almost in a neutral position now instead of positive. Look like the flow is really starting to be South/North instead of SSW/NNE. Maybe she is starting to turn the corner. Does look like the back edge is not going to come that much further east.

[mdwx]

http://weather.unisy...on_3pres-1.html

09 RUC initializing at least 6mb too weak

[showmethesnow]

http://weather.unisy...on_3pres-1.html

09 RUC initializing at least 6mb too weak

Not sure how to interpret these maps. But i am curious if the elongation of the pressure drops to the north suggest a more northerly track closer to the coast.

[showmethesnow]

http://weather.unisy...on_3pres-1.html

09 RUC initializing at least 6mb too weak

Also looking at this I get the impression that the low has slowed to a crawl.

[A-L-E-X]

Also looking at this I get the impression that the low has slowed to a crawl.

The speculation is that if the storm slows down and bombs out more than expected it will be more of a coast hugger-- that is what the RUC seems to be alluding to. I can live with a track within 50 miles of the coast, so I will root it on

[showmethesnow]

The speculation is that if the storm slows down and bombs out more than expected it will be more of a coast hugger-- that is what the RUC seems to be alluding to. I can live with a track within 50 miles of the coast, so I will root it on

You don't by any chance know of any reading material available to interpret the pressure drop maps? Have wanted to read up on it for years but never took the time.

[mdwx]

You don't by any chance know of any reading material available to interpret the pressure drop maps? Have wanted to read up on it for years but never took the time.

google or bing or it.. all kinds of great info out there.. btw she def tilting now, let the fun begin.. I think DC is good for at least 6in

[Ian]

google or bing or it.. all kinds of great info out there.. btw she def tilting now, let the fun begin.. I think DC is good for at least 6in

We better be. I'm 30 min from flying out of the jackpot zone back to screwville

[VAsnowlvr82]

Anybody have any thoughts on the 06z GEFS Ensemble Members 72 hour qpf?

[Animal]

6 z runs continue to develop the storm furter east and take the decent qpf further east.

most locations including NJ/NYC have seen the qpf numbers drop a decent amount from the high totals in my view that were showing on a few runs to around a 10-12 inch storm currently

I have read some of the short range models are showing a more western storm, but even the over night euro does not show big snows actually getting really west of PHL it seems.

going to have watch and see what develops today,but overall the trends have not been to favorable in my view, some people may spin the models runs as favorable I suspect

[bates]

6 z runs continue to develop the storm furter east and take the decent qpf further east.

most locations including NJ/NYC have seen the qpf numbers drop a decent amount from the high totals in my view that were showing on a few runs to around a 10-12 inch storm currently

I have read some of the short range models are showing a more western storm, but even the over night euro does not show big snows actually getting really west of PHL it seems.

going to have watch and see what develops today,but overall the trends have not been to favorable in my view, some people may spin the models runs as favorable I suspect

I'd agree with your immediate observation but be very reluctant to draw any conclusions off the 06z nam and gfs, especially given that some other signals go against. Now if the 12z runs show the same, I'd agree that some of the snowfall forecasts may be high. However, I also wouldn't be surprised to see some of this reverse on the 12z suite.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 z runs continue to develop the storm furter east and take the decent qpf further east.

most locations including NJ/NYC have seen the qpf numbers drop a decent amount from the high totals in my view that were showing on a few runs to around a 10-12 inch storm currently

I have read some of the short range models are showing a more western storm, but even the over night euro does not show big snows actually getting really west of PHL it seems.

going to have watch and see what develops today,but overall the trends have not been to favorable in my view, some people may spin the models runs as favorable I suspect

ur nitpicking....models will flip around a bit leading up to this as they kinda correct themselves. its really about using short range models like the SREF and also nowcasting.

i dunno about you but going to bed with a WSW and waking up to a BW is a trend in the RIGHT direction imo.

[showmethesnow]

6 z runs continue to develop the storm furter east and take the decent qpf further east.

most locations including NJ/NYC have seen the qpf numbers drop a decent amount from the high totals in my view that were showing on a few runs to around a 10-12 inch storm currently

I have read some of the short range models are showing a more western storm, but even the over night euro does not show big snows actually getting really west of PHL it seems.

going to have watch and see what develops today,but overall the trends have not been to favorable in my view, some people may spin the models runs as favorable I suspect

Got to agree. Looking at most of the models they have trended east from just a day or so ago. Normally I would take the GFS and Euro with a grain of salt with them not being better in the short term. But the short terms models seem to agree with them so it looks there seems to be a pretty good consensus. Think were basically in a now cast mode anyway and I'm not sure I like the trends that I am seeing. Been surprised before so hopefully this is one of those times.

[A-L-E-X]

ur nitpicking....models will flip around a bit leading up to this as they kinda correct themselves. its really about using short range models like the SREF and also nowcasting.

i dunno about you but going to bed with a WSW and waking up to a BW is a trend in the RIGHT direction imo.

Correct! And the qpf didnt really "drop" out here-- it's always been 1.25-1.50 on all the models, just hovering back and forth a little. This is not a "trend" but more of a wobble. The model furthest west is last night's euro which has this thing going right over Montauk Pt at under 970mb (takes 12 hours to get from 100 miles east of ACY to MTP), and the furthest east has it like 50 miles east of MTP headed to just east of CC. Either way, the predictions of 12-20 inches seem about right.

[snowfan]

Not liking the look of this for the DC/Bmore area. Looking at radar......it's having a hell of a time making progress to the NNW. I suppose we'll see, but I have my doubts of anyone west of the bay seeing anything more than 2-4 inches.

[showmethesnow]

Got to agree. Looking at most of the models they have trended east from just a day or so ago. Normally I would take the GFS and Euro with a grain of salt with them not being better in the short term. But the short terms models seem to agree with them so it looks there seems to be a pretty good consensus. Think were basically in a now cast mode anyway and I'm not sure I like the trends that I am seeing. Been surprised before so hopefully this is one of those times.

Just wanted to follow up. I'm referring more to the mid-Atlantic region then further north. Not sure so much about the trends for Jersey on up. Would love to be up there somewhere though.

[goldstar]

SPC says they are leaning to the SREF to boot:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0556 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...DE...NJ...EXTREME ERN PA...WRN LONG ISLAND...SERN

NY...SWRN CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261156Z - 261800Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND ONE INCH WILL DEVELOP NWD THIS

MORNING...REACHING DOVER DE/MILLVILLE NJ AROUND 15Z...CNTRL NJ AND

FAR ERN PA 15-18Z AND SERN NY...SWRN CT AND NYC AROUND 18Z. HIGHEST

PROBABILITY FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS SHOULD EXIST IN A 30-40 MILE

CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM NEAR MILLVILLE NJ-POINT MIDWAY BETWEEN

LAKEHURST/TRENTON NJ-WHITE PLAINS NY THROUGH 21Z.

DAYBREAK SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECIDEDLY WWD SHIFT IN MAX

PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN NC/SERN VA. THIS

COULD SIGNAL THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WRN ENVELOPE

OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...PASSING JUST E OF HATTERAS AROUND

15Z THEN JUST EAST OF NORFOLK BY 18Z. THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON

WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE AND THE 03Z SREF

GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY

BE CORRECT.

TO FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND

CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT BOTH SLANTWISE AND UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE

CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS MAY YIELD ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS/DEEPER CONVECTION AS THE LARGE-SCALE PV-ANOMALY

BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND.

[showmethesnow]

SPC says they are leaning to the SREF to boot:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0556 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...DE...NJ...EXTREME ERN PA...WRN LONG ISLAND...SERN

NY...SWRN CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261156Z - 261800Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND ONE INCH WILL DEVELOP NWD THIS

MORNING...REACHING DOVER DE/MILLVILLE NJ AROUND 15Z...CNTRL NJ AND

FAR ERN PA 15-18Z AND SERN NY...SWRN CT AND NYC AROUND 18Z. HIGHEST

PROBABILITY FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS SHOULD EXIST IN A 30-40 MILE

CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM NEAR MILLVILLE NJ-POINT MIDWAY BETWEEN

LAKEHURST/TRENTON NJ-WHITE PLAINS NY THROUGH 21Z.

DAYBREAK SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECIDEDLY WWD SHIFT IN MAX

PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN NC/SERN VA. THIS

COULD SIGNAL THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WRN ENVELOPE

OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...PASSING JUST E OF HATTERAS AROUND

15Z THEN JUST EAST OF NORFOLK BY 18Z. THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON

WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE AND THE 03Z SREF

GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY

BE CORRECT.

TO FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND

CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT BOTH SLANTWISE AND UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE

CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS MAY YIELD ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS/DEEPER CONVECTION AS THE LARGE-SCALE PV-ANOMALY

BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND.

Just rechecked the SREF after reading this. That looks a lot better then I remember seeing. Would take that in a heartbeat.

[jnis]

Not liking the look of this for the DC/Bmore area. Looking at radar......it's having a hell of a time making progress to the NNW. I suppose we'll see, but I have my doubts of anyone west of the bay seeing anything more than 2-4 inches.

I'm guessing that areas west of DC don't even see 2".

[ravensrule]

The new SREF does not usually come out until 8:45.

[showmethesnow]

The new SREF does not usually come out until 8:45.

Site I go to normally has the SREF out at 9:50. RUC comes out at 8:45 there.

[showmethesnow]

Do you have that SREF link?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

[ravensrule]

Site I go to normally has the SREF out at 9:50. RUC comes out at 8:45 there.

I do not have the link but the SREFs are always posted here at 8:45 and 2:45 AM and PM.