My First HECS on the Boards.....

[TalcottWx]

EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALOEXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALONG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.

NG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.

I think were going to see two jackpots... one out in western and central areas and then one maybe by Don in Arlington

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Right but 1 or 2 weenies are describing it ripping thru all of SNE cutting snowfall totals in half or 3/4

No that's not what anyone is describing.

It's mid level drying, doesn't mean it will stop snowing on your head.

I think its actually a NOAA conspiracy to support their statements three days ago, they had a special jet fly some of those test chemicals in to create an artificial dryslot seen only on radar and wv heading towards CT. That's not a dry slot/drying you see well into CT on the water vapor, it's just an illusion.

http://radar.weather...id=okx&loop=yes

http://www.rap.ucar....e=-1&duration=3

[Kbosch]

Gibbs should be in deformation heaven down in NYC, although CT about to get hit hard.

We are cranking right now! 2-3 so far with heavy snow in Stratford.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALOEXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALONG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.

NG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.

All well and good, but that doesn't negate cf enhcancement.

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

Gibbs should be in deformation heaven down in NYC, although CT about to get hit hard.

I am in Wallingford CT though tomorrow. Deformation axis going to setup from my parents place back to my place in NYC and prolyy just sit for a while as mid level circs wrap up and we head toward occlusion. It's so nice to reach the stage in a big storm where you don't need the models Anymore and its just about sitting back and watching it in real time. ESP this storm which has to rank of there for one of the most poorley handled events in model history.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Nice radar images. Snow from S. Me to S.C.

[CoastalWx]

Th dryslot is on my mind for se mass and even BOS, but I don't think it will have a huge impact..just like CSNAVY said..it may cause crappy snowgrowth for a time. Hopefully the mid level low moving off the Delmarva can fill some of those echoes in.

[ROOSTA]

New snowfall map by BOX...totals dropped by 3 inches or so all around central/eastern MA:

http://www.erh.noaa....StormTotalSnow/

Wowfully under by atleast a foot. so just add 12" to the map...LOL Chuckin as high as they go. This is a met nuke.

Relax.

27 hours to go. Realtime discuusions and analysis is fantastic. Kudo's to all...

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think were going to see two jackpots... one out in western and central areas and then one maybe by Don in Arlington

Right....that has been apparent for a couple of days...the main deformation band will pivot out there, but the cf enhancement here still creates another jackpot.

[cpickett79]

New snowfall map by BOX...totals dropped by 3 inches or so all around central/eastern MA:

http://www.erh.noaa....StormTotalSnow/

[weatherwiz]

We are cranking right now! 2-3 so far with heavy snow in Stratford.

Do you have an exact measurement?

[H2Otown_WX]

EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALOEXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALONG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.

NG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.

Well this is reassuring.

[CoastalWx]

I am in Wallingford CT though tomorrow. Deformation axis going to setup from my parents place back to my place in NYC and prolyy just sit for a while as mid level circs wrap up and we head toward occlusion. It's so nice to reach the stage in a big storm where you don't need the models Anymore and its just about sitting back and watching it in real time. ESP this storm which has to rank of there for one of the most poorley handled events in model history.

Yeah you can see that already. It should be great down that way.

[dendrite]

Upgraded to a blizz warning up here too.

[TalcottWx]

Right....that has been apparent for a couple of days...the main deformation band will pivot out there, but the cf enhancement here still creates another jackpot.

It's going to be the most fun to see where it sets up.. some kind of boundary down by the canal right now as were in the early stages of the storm

[moneypitmike]

New snowfall map by BOX...totals dropped by 3 inches or so all around central/eastern MA:

http://www.erh.noaa....StormTotalSnow/

They shifted those 3" to me, intresting. I don't put a lot of faith in those mpas, but I like to see them when I'm in a high zone:)

Moderate snow, all surfaces ocvered

19.4/14, top wind of 17mph. down to 1013.4mb

[40/70 Benchmark]

Upgraded to a blizz warning up here too.

Wow....not often you see those anywhere around here, nevermind up into central NH.

[amarshall]

Love how we have BOS asos reporting light snow... I'm like borderline heavy

not that heavy here in Quincy. Still kinda meh.

[MaineJayhawk]

Upgraded to a blizz warning up here too.

Well, that'll make about half of the total land area of New England under a blizzard warning. Awesome.

[mattb65]

Enjoying some sn- in Bethesda and loving the real time reports/analysis going on. Crossing my fingers that no one gets dry-slotted.

Just checked those40- 45 dbz echos south off the tip of LI, those are going to wreck someone, can't wait to see who. . What are peoples predictions for accumulation max amount? - I'm going for a 33" lollie somewhere around 495 belt.

[Kbosch]

Do you have an exact measurement?

That was an eyeball of course, and I was not that far off. I went out and measured in several spots, and the average is about 2.2 right now. That is going to be very tricky as the winds are really starting to howl.

[weatherwiz]

I can't wait for that band of heavier precip to pivot up here. It's getting closer.

[free_man]

Nam east.. there goes Hecs guys....

Never expected a HECS here..

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

Yeah you can see that already. It should be great down that way.

30dBZ snow incoming! The best part about me being in Wallingford is that I think both here and NYC have similar setups fir lollipop area and I wont be disappointed in not being in nyc for this !

[HIPPYVALLEY]

They shifted those 3" to me, intresting. I don't put a lot of faith in those mpas, but I like to see them when I'm in a high zone:)

Moderate snow, all surfaces ocvered

19.4/14, top wind of 17mph. down to 1013.4mb

When did you start snowing Mike? Didn't start until 3pm here and 25 minutes later we're teetering on mod. snow already.

Ratios should be killer with this one.

[powderfreak]

Right... but I still think they get the most QPF in E.MA. No real argument there. However, as I've been saying, there will likely be a secondary maximum removed out to the west where the best deformation banding takes place. There will likely be an axis of heavier snow running SW to NE from extreme SE.NY-W.CT-W.MA-S/C.NH. Its the second, interior axis that could end up with some higher ratios which will result in similar snowfall totals, but with less QPF than eastern areas.

EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALOEXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALONG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.

NG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.

[dendrite]

Nam east.. there goes Hecs guys....

Please stop with this stuff.

[weatherwiz]

Nam east.. there goes Hecs guys....

That was an eyeball of course, and I was not that far off. I went out and measured in several spots, and the average is about 2.2 right now. That is going to be very tricky as the winds are really starting to howl.

Thanks.

[Wx4cast]

EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALOEXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALONG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.

NG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.

March 4-6 th 2001 Redux this storm less QPF and duration but epic uber intense period of snowbanding with lightning thunder quite possible and snowfall rates 2-3 per hour some locally 4-6 possible. Whiteouts and local blizzard conditions across elevations eps AOA 1K feet. Storm will slow as it passes ESE of Montauk. Starting to become concerned now that it may even stall for a couple few hours before resuming ENE-NE trek.

[DomNH]

25/10/virga/annoyed.