My First HECS on the Boards.....

[SC48]

I think the 18Z Nam is on to something. The dryslot won't hit on this model because it stating that the low with pull east/northeast when it hits a certain point. which will be critical for us.

[DomNH]

Snow just starting to creep up in here...radar looks like we'll be ripping before the hour is over.

[ski MRG]

Man, what a boring map that is.

Got a little better out here.

[TalcottWx]

Not a shocker as stated earlier that the Blizzard Warning needed to be extended inland farther.

Tip,

Any thoughts on the progression and effects of the dryslot for 128 corridor?

[CoastalWx]

I saw this on one of the 00z SUNY x-sctns that cuts through extreme SW CT from NW to SE.

Nice.

[masswinter]

Can anyone justify to me why NWS' new snow total map has me with about 6-7", while i'm at 2" basically already at only 3pm.

Kingston is probably closer to 10 on that map depending on which part of town. Plus I wouldnt worry too much...im still thinking 10-16" down here...maybe towards the lower end if your right on the coast.

[Baroclinic Zone]

With the new BOX snow map looks like they're pretty confident R/S line stays down in far SE MA.

AWT

[weatherwiz]

Nice Wiz, I thought you were alright, now I see you're not.

Sorry

[mattmfm]

I think they're doing a nice job on the stretch from PYM to the canal. The north winds contaminate snow possibilities with this much wind. It may snow heavy for 6 hours and 2 inches fall. We need it to be dark here, that's just enough to offset the marine layer.

It's nuts to me how inland it can be 33/34 and accumulate no problem. With a wind off the water and all the salt spray it can't accumulate above 32 on these types of days, really even 31 ish.

Also has to do with surface temps. TAN was down to 23 last night, HYA had a low of 30.

[CoastalWx]

The dryslot acts to destabilize the edge of the bands of snow or rain. Almost like in convection..when you introduce drier air..you can cause evaporation cooling and now are left with a relative cool pocket in the atmosphere. As you can imagine..it's a delicate balance because too much dry air is not good for obvious reasons.

[csnavywx]

So, the dryslot will actually enhance the destabilization of bands? Anyone care to further explain that process?

On the edge of the dryslot and heavier snows, dry air cutting in aloft often has the effect of steepening the mid-level lapse rates. If you have a situation where you already have low static stability or a moist-neutral atmosphere below that, then this can set off convection, which of course actually intensifies the snow immediately ahead of the dry slot. This is the reason most places report an increase in snow rates just before a dry slot, and in some borderline cases, it helps re-introduce ice crystals to an ice-crystal starved/dry slotted area.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Nope....you already locked me at 15-30" lol

I'm like walmart, rolling things back.

I hope you get under an uber band but I'm starting to give the MM5 a closer look. It's really playing out pretty close to that depiction right down to the mega precip moving up towards Phil from the SW that has some flashes in it probably.

Look at the NYC radar BR and Boston and the WV. Push one is happening now, later on a huge band will develop somewhere over the eastern 1/2 of MA and RI, just not sure where. MM5 was too far SE in earlier runs and has shifted NW each time, so maybe up towards you/bob/weatha

weenies be chucking though.

[mattmfm]

AWT

AWT?

[Bostonseminole]

are we going to have a news reports/pics etc thread?

[Damage In Tolland]

Not sure why all the wory about dry air/dryslot..it's about gone now..and actually is heading NE towards SE areas

[TalcottWx]

The dryslot acts to destabilize the edge of the bands of snow or rain. Almost like in convection..when you introduce drier air..you can cause evaporation cooling and now are left with a relative cool pocket in the atmosphere. As you can imagine..it's a delicate balance because too much dry air is not good for obvious reasons.

On the edge of the dryslot and heavier snows, dry air cutting in aloft often has the effect of steepening the mid-level lapse rates. If you have a situation where you already have low static stability or a moist-neutral atmosphere below that, then this can set off convection, which of course actually intensifies the snow immediately ahead of the dry slot. This is the reason most places report an increase in snow rates just before a dry slot, and in some borderline cases, it helps re-introduce ice crystals to an ice-crystal starved/dry slotted area.

Extremely good explanations. I gather those that ride the fine line on the pivot point of the dry slot will really cash in.

[weatherwiz]

The dryslot acts to destabilize the edge of the bands of snow or rain. Almost like in convection..when you introduce drier air..you can cause evaporation cooling and now are left with a relative cool pocket in the atmosphere. As you can imagine..it's a delicate balance because too much dry air is not good for obvious reasons.

It's like our version of a Plains dry line

[weatherwiz]

AWT?

As we thought

[CoastalWx]

Not sure why all the wory about dry air/dryslot..it's about gone now..and actually is heading NE towards SE areas

It does have a role, which we were just explaining. I like the look of radar to the south so far.

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

It's so nice to see the snow and wind combo. All those years getting my BS and MS at PSU really made me appreciated being closer to the coast and p and T grads to be able to experience the snow and wind combo. Weather bug station already at 24mph and sfc low has another 18mb to go and a bunch of miles as well.

[CoastalWx]

Gibbs should be in deformation heaven down in NYC, although CT about to get hit hard.

[Damage In Tolland]

It does have a role, which we were just explaining. I like the look of radar to the south so far.

Right but 1 or 2 weenies are describing it ripping thru all of SNE cutting snowfall totals in half or 3/4

[Baroclinic Zone]

AWT?

As we thought.

[wxnut]

B44066 just dropped another 6 mb past hour.. now down to 985.8 mb. NE winds 40G50 knots. Waves up to 15 feet and building! This thing is exploding!

[CoastalWx]

It's so nice to see the snow and wind combo. All those years getting my BS and MS at PSU really made me appreciated being closer to the coast and p and T grads to be able to experience the snow and wind combo. Weather bug station already at 24mph and sfc low has another 18mb to go and a bunch of miles as well.

Violently agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Snow just starting to creep up in here...radar looks like we'll be ripping before the hour is over.

First flakes..... .5" already down from pre game oes.

23.4\14

[Damage In Tolland]

Gibbs should be in deformation heaven down in NYC, although CT about to get hit hard.

He's in Wallingford for the holiday

[TalcottWx]

It does have a role, which we were just explaining. I like the look of radar to the south so far.

Love how we have BOS asos reporting light snow... I'm like borderline heavy

[ski MRG]

Oh the jackpot is definitely E.MA.... not sure there was every any doubt with that. I just would like to get some snow, too. I'd be happy with 8" here in Albany... just enough to be fun and not enough so I can't drive back to Stowe tomorrow. I like a 6-9" forecast here, though if the meso-scale models are correct we could end up with a foot or more given the high qpf some are showing locally.

EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALOEXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALONG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.

NG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALOEXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNING INTO CT

AND ALONG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.

NG A BDL-ORH-MHT LINE AS BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST

BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE FARTHER WEST INTO CT/WEST-CENTRAL MA

INTO SOUTHWEST NH. HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL FIRST IMPACT EASTERN MA

AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PIVOT

NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH VERTICALLY

STACKED MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NEAR ACK.