DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 For all the Debbies, the new SREF is still a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Getting antsy for the start. well it just started here, 45 minutes I think for you.. you can do it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Agree that dry slot appears to be pinching. Frankly the biggest flag to me today was ACK going over to snow. This is not coming as far west. They started as heavy rain. Currently ACK: KACK 261853Z 05017G24KT 1/2SM R24/3000V4500FT SN FG OVC004 01/00 A2966 RMK AO2 SLP045 P0006 T00060000 We're getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 For all the Debbies, the new SREF is still a huge hit. Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 well it just started here, 45 minutes I think for you.. you can do it!! Yes, and some decent banding seems to be forming just to my south right now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It doesn't even make much difference if some dry slot makes it in after midnight because by then then the damage has been done so to speak for most of SNE. For all the Debbies, the new SREF is still a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Probably overdone, but at least it looks like we get into some good stuff overnight. It has been too close for comfort near the nw edge on modeling here. NAM probably comes out and isn't so crazy like the RUC. I didn't post much yesterday and only spent maybe 1 hour on wx data because I wasn't gonna waste my Christmas Day with such uncertaintly. Vis. Sat shows a gaping slot of clear sky off the coast from the S. tip of NJ to off NC headed due North towards SNE. I guess that could fill in by the time it gets up there but to say the dry slot idea is crazy..........I don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Agree that dry slot appears to be pinching. Frankly the biggest flag to me today was ACK going over to snow. This is not coming as far west. They started as heavy rain. Currently ACK: KACK 261853Z 05017G24KT 1/2SM R24/3000V4500FT SN FG OVC004 01/00 A2966 RMK AO2 SLP045 P0006 T00060000 We're getting crushed. We might see a Jan 05' situation... ( I keep referring to it due to the same quality of the snow when I shoveled about a half hour ago ). Very similar, cape supposed to go over to rain and areas of the cape saw 35". Could we see that again today? I think theres a chance. Thing is so dynamic and powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Link 24 hour precip, probably still some lingering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 For all the Debbies, the new SREF is still a huge hit. Nobody is saying this isn't a nice hit. It did trim back NW MA/west from the 9z run. Just saying it like it is, not my prediction but it did shift some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 According to the 18Z RUC things get crazy in ENY overnight tonight after the heaviest may have hit SNE. It wraps the deformation well back inton NY State and has dry slotted part of SNE then. Low wrapped to just off E. LI is our benchmark if that verifies. Rick... our only chance out here in eastern NY is that some of these meso-scale models are correct with some sort of deformation axis over NNH, central/southern VT, into the ALB area. All the meso-scale models now have a fairly significant E.MA jackpot with another axis well NW. SUNY MM5 puts a deformation band over W.MA/E.NY/S.VT late tonight and goes to town... with a big maximum over E.MA 12z WRF_NMM also has this deformation feature which causes the precipitation bulge west near the Catskills (deform axis runs Catskills, ALB, DDH, LEB). 12z WRF_ARW also has this feature of higher precip totals running from the Catskills-ALB-DDH-C.NH... with another maximum over E.MA. Looks very similar to the MM5. Not sure why the meso-scale models are showing lower amounts over CT and central MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Heaviest snow so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It doesn't even make much difference if some dry slot makes it in after midnight because by then then the damage has been done so to speak for most of SNE. I think I'm far enough N and E to avoid the dry slot anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Why are we still looking at models? Forget them, look at the radar...this is all we need to see right now...only good thing to use is mesoanalysis...I know it's composed off of RUC data but at least you can see where the best frotogenesis/forcing/convergence/etc is setting up. Doing so this looks very good for much of CT through central/Northeast MA and N. RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Probably overdone, but at least it looks like we get into some good stuff overnight. It has been too close for comfort near the nw edge on modeling here. NAM probably comes out and isn't so crazy like the RUC. I didn't post much yesterday and only spent maybe 1 hour on wx data because I wasn't gonna waste my Christmas Day with such uncertaintly. Both the GFS and NAM 12Z BUFKITs show the dry slot impinging on the DGZ after 9-10PM tonight in Boston. Both scour the ice crystals out of the layer, and leave a cloud top temp around -8C behind, indicating some problems with ice crystal seeding into the lower layers, at least until the morning hours (4 am onward). Should see a transition from big fat flakes to fine, grainy rime-like snow, or straight snow grains in those areas. However, it is interesting to note that there is some theta-e folding aloft during this time (decreasing theta-e with height between 10 and 20kft), so there's a potential of some CSI or just plain upright instability that could help things during and right before this time. Wouldn't be surprised to see some lightning strikes, especially just before the dry slot pushes in aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 ACK will be going over to TS+ in not too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 We might see a Jan 05' situation... ( I keep referring to it due to the same quality of the snow when I shoveled about a half hour ago ). Very similar, cape supposed to go over to rain and areas of the cape saw 35". Could we see that again today? I think theres a chance. Thing is so dynamic and powerful. Keep preaching! In Kingston and it's steady with roads covered, easily at an 1.5" roughly already, haven't measured yet so it's just an esitmate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Vis. Sat shows a gaping slot of clear sky off the coast from the S. tip of NJ to off NC headed due North towards SNE. I guess that could fill in by the time it gets up there but to say the dry slot idea is crazy..........I don't know LOL SHHHHHHH It's filling in except for where it isn't. Like you, I can't say the idea of it running over some of us is crazy when it's already drying onto LI per the BR radar and water vapor. At the same time we know the RUC is overdone. Note what is heading towards SE MA, holy crap http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20101226&endTime=-1&duration=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Agree that dry slot appears to be pinching. Frankly the biggest flag to me today was ACK going over to snow. This is not coming as far west. They started as heavy rain. Currently ACK: KACK 261853Z 05017G24KT 1/2SM R24/3000V4500FT SN FG OVC004 01/00 A2966 RMK AO2 SLP045 P0006 T00060000 Solid 1/2" of mashed potatoes. Slush on our main drag. Wind around 18-20mph and increasing. We're getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just realized I'm going to down slope on a north wind. Crap.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 We have some very healthy looking bands moving up this way Zoomed out radar looks awesome to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm gonna be interested in the 18Z NAM obviously. But then it is gonna be a watch the radar situation. We'll see if we barely get into that really good deformation. SNE is getting WAA snows etc that will put them into the stratosphere with snowfall so I doubt anyone will top their #'s. Rick... our only chance out here in eastern NY is that some of these meso-scale models are correct with some sort of deformation axis over NNH, central/southern VT, into the ALB area. All the meso-scale models now have a fairly significant E.MA jackpot with another axis well NW. SUNY MM5 puts a deformation band over W.MA/E.NY/S.VT late tonight and goes to town... with a big maximum over E.MA Not sure why the meso-scale models are showing lower amounts over CT and central MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 ACK will be going over to TS+ in not too long Could see quite a bit of that soon down this way. FWIW, I think maybe the snow hole so to speak in CT may not be just shadowing, it may well be some issues with the dry air at mid levels rocketing up. It's going to get cutoff soon, but it's already touching the shores. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20101226&endTime=-1&duration=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 First plow action going on across the street in the package store parking lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Both the GFS and NAM 12Z BUFKITs show the dry slot impinging on the DGZ after 9-10PM tonight in Boston. Both scour the ice crystals out of the layer, and leave a cloud top temp around -8C behind, indicating some problems with ice crystal seeding into the lower layers, at least until the morning hours (4 am onward). Should see a transition from big fat flakes to fine, grainy rime-like snow, or straight snow grains in those areas. However, it is interesting to note that there is some theta-e folding aloft during this time (decreasing theta-e with height between 10 and 20kft), so there's a potential of some CSI or just plain upright instability that could help things during and right before this time. Wouldn't be surprised to see some lightning strikes, especially just before the dry slot pushes in aloft. I saw that...certainly could be interesting for a time, as the dryslot tends to destabilize the edge of that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Charleston RI has three inches already , one new last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The key to the dryslot that nobody here in Eastern MAss wants is, if as the low performs its blizzard loop starts to head more east/northeast instaed of north/ northeast, that will make a ton of difference. Cross your fingers guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Charleston RI has three inches already , one new last hour. My front yard has no new accumulations, back yard about 1/2" in the last 30 minutes. Back another 200 yards it's as it would normally be. Heavy snow and it struggles to accumulate at 32 degrees within about 300 feet of the water, crazy! Winds rapidly increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM east about 10 miles, but we're splitting hairs this late in the game...precip shield still just as solid for all of SNE (most affected is Jersey shore back to PA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 nice shift east on the nam weathafella temps through 9-12....let me use that new acro....AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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