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My First HECS on the Boards.....


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Weatherwiz, that is pretty awesome, unfortunately I live in the mixing zone and expect to change to rain. I am a little warmer then HYA and I will most likely not see any heavy snow accumulation. I can't wait for the 1250pm est buoy data update for the buoy southeast of Nantucket, MA. This buoy will likely have the best data regarding the potential intense bombogenesis of the low as it makes its closest approach. We will dry slot for a time tonight as well.

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Doesn't mean much yet FWIW. If it wraps up it wraps up, won't really matter.

Too early too tell, we are in the first inning of what will likely be an extra innings game.

It just won't go down quietely, tihs one is still busting forecasts.

Yeah agreed.

Man the RUC is a horrific model because it continues to track the low to the eastern tip of Long Island with much of SE Mass getting a dryslot and p-type issues, lol.

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Yep. 18 is better than 17. Thanks for the replies btw.

No prob. And I'm liking the position of the CF front for us. Im sitting at 27. CF looks like its around South Weymouth and Hanover. I think we're golden. Its just a matter of where this localized banding sets up, and with a NE wind like this, I think its SW Norfolk CTY-Canton. I usually miss out on the very most by a couple miles.

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New Euro continues the trend of keeping taint further SE. We're getting buried IMBY....I'm growing in confidence. The Cialis is working.

Just looked at the 12z GFS soundings.

All Snow!

Station ID: KTAN Lat:   41.87 Long:   71.02                                                        
GFS Model Run: 12Z 26DEC 2010
 HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb  MSLP  TCC PRS WX  Low      Middle     High     Max    Min  Sfc
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp    mb    %  TEXT   Clouds    Clouds    Clouds    Tmp    Tmp  Vis
  0 12/26 12Z   29     28      15       5    0.00  0.00    530    541   -7.3 -23.5 1013.8   0          CLR       CLR       CLR    ****   ****  2.3
  6 12/26 18Z   31     30      41      18    0.15  0.00    534    541   -6.7 -20.7 1009.0 100 -SN   021BKN086 147BKN223 223OVC326   33     29  0.5
 12 12/27 00Z   32     32      39      23    0.36  0.00    539    534   -5.4 -19.4  994.2 100 SN    004OVC103 108BKN191 222SCT325   32     31  0.0
 18 12/27 06Z   33     33      12      19    0.86  0.01    534    518   -3.0 -26.6  977.9  99 SN       OVC107 107BKN153    CLR      34     32  0.0
 24 12/27 12Z   26     26     336      29    0.42  0.00    530    510   -4.8 -26.2  973.3 100 SN    001OVC107 129FEW190    CLR      33     26  0.0
 30 12/27 18Z   21     20     315      23    0.00  0.00    525    511   -8.2 -26.2  982.2  99 -SN   027BKN075 142BKN217 216FEW235   26     20  0.5
 36 12/28 00Z   13     12     306      19    0.01  0.00    518    510   -7.8 -29.8  989.9  95 -SN   060BKN107 118BKN141 216SCT254   21     13  1.5

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For those that want to see what is going on to the SW, here's a cheat sheet...you can have it display 6 and 12 hour QPF and compare it to the NAM and GFS. You can move it around up the coast too...wish Boston had this link on its site it's awesome.

You can't look at that and say any model was terrible. If I had to give a nod it would probably be to the GFS esp with regards to precip speed but the NAM has everything on track in NJ as we approach 18z.

btw GFS ens not having the same issues.

12zgfsensemblep72072.gif

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