Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just waiting on the 4PM upgrade to Blizz warning as we thought Wow thought you already would have had it. Have to say BOX been off model on this storm which is kind of impressive if they are right. Just FWIW to our south precip turned out to be a little east of what they thought, warnings being dropped etc. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --WE HAVE MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO HEADLINES. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL COUNTIES BUT ST MARYS AND CHARLES COUNTIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS /NOTING TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS/ AND SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHER QPF GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 0.50" OF LIQUID WHICH COULD TRANSLATE TO AROUND 5 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING WOULD BE ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. REST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO ADVISORIES FOR LESSER AMOUNTS AND HAVE CANCELLED ADVISORIES OUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHLANDS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 all of southern new england will be under one i would think at 4 this storm is for 95% of us Yeah I am in the 5% not getting a blizzard warning, temps around 34f with some moderate wet snow falling, road is in a coating of snow, colder surfaces have a coating. Phil how much of a snow pack do you have left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 MCD out: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261731Z - 262330Z BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD/NWWD FROM PORTIONS OF DE/NJ THROUGH THE NYC METROPOLITAN AREA INTO SRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING SNOW... STRENGTHENING NELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. 17Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS WHICH LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING NWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NJ BY 27/00Z. THE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE NNEWD TRANSLATION OF AN INTENSE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL PV ANOMALY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULTING ENHANCEMENT OF OCEANIC HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL PIVOT NWWD THROUGH SRN ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW. SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION OF ONE OR MULTIPLE HEAVY SNOW BANDS /VIA MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS TIED TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES POTENTIALLY BEING AUGMENTED BY SLANTWISE OR UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHEN COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING GRADIENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS...EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NJ NWD THROUGH NYC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER SERN MA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL RAIN. ..MEAD.. 12/26/2010 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 AWT(new abbrev for as we thought) EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE... BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE...MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL SUGGESTS A HIGH PROBABILITY WE WILL MIX TO AT LEAST 40KTS FOR DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES THIS EVENING /AND TONIGHT/. PER COLLABORATION WITH OKX AND BOX...WE WILL UPGRADE THESE AREAS TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE CURRENT TIME. Yeah if ALB talked with BOX and decided to upgrade... you'll definitely get a Blizzard Warning for BOX's northern CT zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 MCD out: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261731Z - 262330Z BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD/NWWD FROM PORTIONS OF DE/NJ THROUGH THE NYC METROPOLITAN AREA INTO SRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING SNOW... STRENGTHENING NELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. 17Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS WHICH LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING NWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NJ BY 27/00Z. THE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE NNEWD TRANSLATION OF AN INTENSE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL PV ANOMALY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RESULTING ENHANCEMENT OF OCEANIC HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL PIVOT NWWD THROUGH SRN ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW. SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION OF ONE OR MULTIPLE HEAVY SNOW BANDS /VIA MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS TIED TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES POTENTIALLY BEING AUGMENTED BY SLANTWISE OR UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHEN COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING GRADIENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS...EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NJ NWD THROUGH NYC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER SERN MA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL RAIN. ..MEAD.. 12/26/2010 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ... This is the best MD I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Storm is here... We're already accumulating at a good rate. Bouchard has 19 in Milton, and 16 up in most of essex county with a max of 21 in Attleboro. Gotta agree with the forecast jackpot areas, but I think 24-28 is attainable around Attleboro and into NE Ri and SW Norfolk County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 FWIW, when they dropped the warnings to advisories and the advisories to a flizzard to the south and said : ACCUMULATIONS/ AND SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHER QPF GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. The NAM was still giving them a blasting at 12z. It was wrong down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow thought you already would have had it. Have to say BOX been off model on this storm which is kind of impressive if they are right. Just FWIW to our south precip turned out to be a little east of what they thought, warnings being dropped etc. Man you are loving this late game east shift... I now think we will probably be near ALB's low end of their 6-16" forecast. I'm watching Philly pretty closely... they haven't seen anything yet and just canceled the NFL game there tonight. Growing up here, I always noticed that if there is a tight western edge, if Philly gets snow we usually do alright in ALB. Cantore is sitting in Philly watching nothing happen, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah if ALB talked with BOX and decided to upgrade... you'll definitely get a Blizzard Warning for BOX's northern CT zones. Still don't know why it wasn't issued from the get go. it was obvious yesterday afternoon winds and snow would both be enough to qulaify. if you issue it for ORH you also issue it for the rest of the area. made no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Were even in the general thunderstorm line on the SPC convective outlooks THE ANTICIPATED INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS UNDERWAY. MODELS ARE IN SYNC TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW FROM CURRENT POSITION E OF CAPE HATTERAS TO VICINITY OF CAPE COD BY 12Z MON. AS THIS OCCURS IMPRESSIVE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL SPREAD NWD/NEWD FROM NJ THIS AFTERNOON INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Man you are loving this late game east shift... I now think we will probably be near ALB's low end of their 6-16" forecast. I'm watching Philly pretty closely... they haven't seen anything yet and just canceled the NFL game there tonight. Growing up here, I always noticed that if there is a tight western edge, if Philly gets snow we usually do alright in ALB. Cantore is sitting in Philly watching nothing happen, haha. Doesn't mean much yet FWIW. If it wraps up it wraps up, won't really matter. Too early too tell, we are in the first inning of what will likely be an extra innings game. It just won't go down quietely, tihs one is still busting forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Storm is here... We're already accumulating at a good rate. Bouchard has 19 in Milton, and 16 up in most of essex county with a max of 21 in Attleboro. Gotta agree with the forecast jackpot areas, but I think 24-28 is attainable around Attleboro and into NE Ri and SW Norfolk County What did his model show for BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 1/2sm in HYA now...Go Phil!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 snowing good there now Man you are loving this late game east shift... I now think we will probably be near ALB's low end of their 6-16" forecast. I'm watching Philly pretty closely... they haven't seen anything yet and just canceled the NFL game there tonight. Growing up here, I always noticed that if there is a tight western edge, if Philly gets snow we usually do alright in ALB. Cantore is sitting in Philly watching nothing happen, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Think I have hope? Absolutely hopeless. You're far enough east you could get something tomorrow on the backside. In Newport down near the southern tip of the island temperatures are rising, viz. is increasing to above a mile and the 1.5 inches of snow is kinda melting under trees. Maybe when the heavier bands move in within the hour this will knock the temps down a bit here but if I were west/north/west by 15 miles I'd be in a much better spot just west of Narragansett Bay but I really can't complain cuz I was swimming in late September with very comfortable water temps in the upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 What did his model show for BOS? It had 17 in Boston Downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Game time! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tt_ro2aerQg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVuHGsDhTAI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Starting to see some heavier echos work into southern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 1/2sm in HYA now...Go Phil!!! SPECI KTAN 261733Z AUTO 02009G16KT 1/2SM SN FG OVC005 00/M01 A2979 RMK AO2 P0003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Radar returns are showing mixing on the ocean. Its Snow in Scituate harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It had 17 in Boston Downtown I can live with that...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I can live with that...lol... You're in Brookline right? I think it had 18 just west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 SPECI KTAN 261733Z AUTO 02009G16KT 1/2SM SN FG OVC005 00/M01 A2979 RMK AO2 P0003 Temp has dropped about 3 degrees in the last hour or so with this steady mod snow....Looks like we might be in the sweet spot with the latest trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Really coming down here at the moment! Heading out to gas up the truck, grab a few pizzas sit back watch football and watch things get real! Good luck to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I remember in Jan 96, my friend in Braintree reported PL while BOS was 19F and heavy snow. Ultimately the PL were short lived and he got close to 2 feet but this may be a similar system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 For anybody who wants to keep tab on power outages in CT (which so far are few and far between): Connecticut Light and Power (covering much of the state): Map: http://www.cl-p.com/.../outagemap.aspx Town outage list: http://www.cl-p.com/outage/mobile.aspx United Illuminating (covering 17 towns, mostly parts of Fairfield and New Haven Counties): Map: http://www.uinet.com...EvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/ Town outage list: http://www.uinet.com...EvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You're in Brookline right? I think it had 18 just west of the city Yep. 18 is better than 17. Thanks for the replies btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Already beat my season snowfall total of 0.3". I may even beat my total last season snowfall before this is over (31.5") It's possibe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Starting to rip now as heavier bands work in. mod sn/blowing sn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The p-type & intensity model that WBZ and NECN use (same one) now has the furthest NW extent of mix from about TAN to Marshfield...associated snow map projection shows the most from SW Norfolk county right into Boston (18-24" in the bright pink color) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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