My First HECS on the Boards.....

[Baroclinic Zone]

Interesting that the SREF ens mostly bring the 40F 2m contours up to the CC Canal and 32-34 towards Boston and even 128 in some cases.

My best guess is the rain snow line will be around the 35-36F threshold.

[Damage In Tolland]

You are on the money.

See this doesn't bother me in the slightest. In a KU I get 14 inches. There's no doubt about it..that is what I'll end up with. The thing that sucks is that I already know the final outcome..so it gives me nothing to hope for as far as higher totals..so in that regard it's a letdown..to already know exactly how much I'm getting

[CoastalWx]

See this doesn't bother me in the slightest. In a KU I get 14 inches. There's no doubt about it..that is what I'll end up with. The thing that sucks is that I already know the final outcome..so it gives me nothing to hope for as far as higher totals..so in that regard it's a letdown..to already know exactly how much I'm getting

Kev, just kidding.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

The NWS forecast for today/tonight reads like a fantasy. Blizzard warning...snow, heavy at times...widespread blowing snow...thunder...gusts to 55mph. Gonna be a good day/night

Gotta bring in some wood and prep the wood stove in case of power outage.

[Damage In Tolland]

Kev, just kidding.

I know you were..but I'm not. I'm not getting more than 14 inches

[dendrite]

Anyone just watch Tim Kelly on NECN talking about the blizzard and then see the next story featuring our own weather loving, accordion superstar Cory Pesaturo (The Snowman)? lol

[dryslot]

So, you're saying that a place ... we'll use Tolland, CT for this example ... could get 14" while a place very nearby, in this case Union, CT, could get 20+?

There will be scenarios up here with that as well once the banding is determined of where it actually sets up........

[mahk_webstah]

Hey that dagger in the qpf field from snh into nma....whats up with that? Brian posted that earlier, GYX seems to be going with it...but wouldn't that also affect ORH or is that just west of him? I don't think that would be downsloping in a ne wind...is it subsidence?

Oh and good morning everyone! These days are why I moved up here!!!

[Damage In Tolland]

Anyone just watch Tim Kelly on NECN talking about the blizzard and then see the next story featuring our own weather loving, accordion superstar Cory Pesaturo (The Snowman)? lol

LOL..yeah I saw that..Good kid

[CarverWX]

How far north does the mixing go?

[MaineJayhawk]

I know you were..but I'm not. I'm not getting more than 14 inches

You are.

[moneypitmike]

Good luck Ray, Wiz and all.

Fringe here...could be from 3" to 12" literally..so we'll see....but no doubt you guys get pummeled.

I'm pulling for the suprise high end for you, Rick!

[Bryan]

Hello, just woke up and saw that NWS moved their jackpot totals west towards ORH, did the models show something? If so, anyone mind sending me a link?

[Southshorewx]

Storm team five needs a new captain. Blizzard (and weenie) flags are flying and they have a general 4-8 for the coast through Boston. At least copy and paste the NWS disco instead of the GFS. On chanel 7 they told people "Plenty of time to go out and trade in that tie for a chia pet" Yeah, good idea. Tell people to go out shopping.

[moneypitmike]

Who wantws to throw out ratio expectations across the area?

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Storm team five needs a new captain. Blizzard (and weenie) flags are flying and they have a general 4-8 for the coast through Boston. At least copy and paste the NWS disco instead of the GFS. On chanel 7 they told people "Plenty of time to go out and trade in that tie for a chia pet" Yeah, good idea. Tell people to go out shopping.

I honestly think things won't start going downhill in Boston area until 3pm at the earliest...so I'd say that's plenty of time

[dendrite]

Hey that dagger in the qpf field from snh into nma....whats up with that? Brian posted that earlier, GYX seems to be going with it...but wouldn't that also affect ORH or is that just west of him? I don't think that would be downsloping in a ne wind...is it subsidence?

Oh and good morning everyone! These days are why I moved up here!!!

I wouldn't worry about it at this point Mark. There will be some downslope a bit north of here (as the high res models are hitting), but I'm fairly confident we manage ~1" QPF. This isn't the typical storm that slides under us with a NE track. It's coming due north while due south of us so our winds will start right out NNE and quickly back to the N to NNW. With a 30-40mb drop in 24hrs occurring due south of us there will be an abnormally strong northerly ageostrophic component to the wind. I think Plymouth may get shadowed worse than here, but we'll have to see how banding plays out.

[dryslot]

I wouldn't worry about it at this point Mark. There will be some downslope a bit north of here (as the high res models are hitting), but I'm fairly confident we manage ~1" QPF. This isn't the typical storm that slides under us with a NE track. It's coming due north while due south of us so our winds will start right out NNE and quickly back to the N to NNW. With a 30-40mb drop in 24hrs occurring due south of us there will be an abnormally strong northerly ageostrophic component to the wind. I think Plymouth may get shadowed worse than here, but we'll have to see how banding plays out.

There is going to be some sick bandinng that sets up with this storm, And the ones that are fortunate to have it over them are really going to jackpot.........

[mahk_webstah]

I wouldn't worry about it at this point Mark. There will be some downslope a bit north of here (as the high res models are hitting), but I'm fairly confident we manage ~1" QPF. This isn't the typical storm that slides under us with a NE track. It's coming due north while due south of us so our winds will start right out NNE and quickly back to the N to NNW. With a 30-40mb drop in 24hrs occurring due south of us there will be an abnormally strong northerly ageostrophic component to the wind. I think Plymouth may get shadowed worse than here, but we'll have to see how banding plays out.

Thanks Brian.with these things you just have to let it play out...who knows. It was disturbing to see the downgrade in the forecast this morn. The ratios will be interesting. You would think 15:1 not unreasonable, but then with all then wind. The over under for me in this storm is 12 inches.

[Southshorewx]

I honestly think things won't start going downhill in Boston area until 3pm at the earliest...so I'd say that's plenty of time

At least tell people to use caution.

[mahk_webstah]

Interesting trend perhaps

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0556 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...DE...NJ...EXTREME ERN PA...WRN LONG ISLAND...SERN

NY...SWRN CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261156Z - 261800Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND ONE INCH WILL DEVELOP NWD THIS

MORNING...REACHING DOVER DE/MILLVILLE NJ AROUND 15Z...CNTRL NJ AND

FAR ERN PA 15-18Z AND SERN NY...SWRN CT AND NYC AROUND 18Z. HIGHEST

PROBABILITY FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS SHOULD EXIST IN A 30-40 MILE

CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM NEAR MILLVILLE NJ-POINT MIDWAY BETWEEN

LAKEHURST/TRENTON NJ-WHITE PLAINS NY THROUGH 21Z.

DAYBREAK SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECIDEDLY WWD SHIFT IN MAX

PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN NC/SERN VA. THIS

COULD SIGNAL THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WRN ENVELOPE

OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...PASSING JUST E OF HATTERAS AROUND

15Z THEN JUST EAST OF NORFOLK BY 18Z. THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON

WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE AND THE 03Z SREF

GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY

BE CORRECT.

TO FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND

CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT BOTH SLANTWISE AND UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE

CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS MAY YIELD ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS/DEEPER CONVECTION AS THE LARGE-SCALE PV-ANOMALY

BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND.

[Bryan]

Man, looking at the radar, some of those bands going over southern virginia, and the ones off the coast of NC are just sick. Whoever gets into those are going to put up quick numbers.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well my oldest daughter just woke and threw up..tubing cancel at least for her..My other daughter might still go

[moneypitmike]

Interesting trend perhaps

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0556 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...DE...NJ...EXTREME ERN PA...WRN LONG ISLAND...SERN

NY...SWRN CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261156Z - 261800Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND ONE INCH WILL DEVELOP NWD THIS

MORNING...REACHING DOVER DE/MILLVILLE NJ AROUND 15Z...CNTRL NJ AND

FAR ERN PA 15-18Z AND SERN NY...SWRN CT AND NYC AROUND 18Z. HIGHEST

PROBABILITY FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS SHOULD EXIST IN A 30-40 MILE

CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM NEAR MILLVILLE NJ-POINT MIDWAY BETWEEN

LAKEHURST/TRENTON NJ-WHITE PLAINS NY THROUGH 21Z.

DAYBREAK SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECIDEDLY WWD SHIFT IN MAX

PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN NC/SERN VA. THIS

COULD SIGNAL THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WRN ENVELOPE

OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...PASSING JUST E OF HATTERAS AROUND

15Z THEN JUST EAST OF NORFOLK BY 18Z. THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON

WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE AND THE 03Z SREF

GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY

BE CORRECT.

TO FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND

CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT BOTH SLANTWISE AND UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE

CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS MAY YIELD ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS/DEEPER CONVECTION AS THE LARGE-SCALE PV-ANOMALY

BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND.

West is Best.

[dendrite]

Who wantws to throw out ratio expectations across the area?

I'll go a general 10-12:1 in the interior with maybe some spots that sit under persistent bands maybe pushing 15:1. I don't think coastal areas do much better than 10:1 using the snow core water equiv method. It may end up seeming like high ratios when the snow falls sideways to the can at BOS.

I know there's a CT poster here who does snow cores and I agree with him that the winds that are strong enough to cause continuous blowing/drifting snow really kill your ratios. The legit 25:1 stuff is actually fairly rare. If you sit under some frontogenetic bands for awhile before the winds crank maybe you'll get a period of high ratios. Also, people who clear the board every 6 hours should tend to have higher totals than those just measuring at the end. 1-2 ft of snow sitting upon its self will create some compaction. Then throwing in the wind break up the crystals and increase the density as well.

[mahk_webstah]

Well my oldest daughter just woke and threw up..tubing cancel at least for her..My other daughter might still go

You shouldn't have capped her at 14 inches - you made her sick!

[moneypitmike]

Well my oldest daughter just woke and threw up..tubing cancel at least for her..My other daughter might still go

That sucks. Maybe she had a dream about pinking.

Hope she feels better.

[amarshall]

Worried about mixing issues here in Quincy being 2 blocks from the bay. The good news is that the bay is much colder from the ocean. By the crow flies were 3 or 4 miles from open ocean.

[dendrite]

Interesting trend perhaps

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0556 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...DE...NJ...EXTREME ERN PA...WRN LONG ISLAND...SERN

NY...SWRN CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261156Z - 261800Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND ONE INCH WILL DEVELOP NWD THIS

MORNING...REACHING DOVER DE/MILLVILLE NJ AROUND 15Z...CNTRL NJ AND

FAR ERN PA 15-18Z AND SERN NY...SWRN CT AND NYC AROUND 18Z. HIGHEST

PROBABILITY FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS SHOULD EXIST IN A 30-40 MILE

CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM NEAR MILLVILLE NJ-POINT MIDWAY BETWEEN

LAKEHURST/TRENTON NJ-WHITE PLAINS NY THROUGH 21Z.

DAYBREAK SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECIDEDLY WWD SHIFT IN MAX

PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN NC/SERN VA. THIS

COULD SIGNAL THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WRN ENVELOPE

OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...PASSING JUST E OF HATTERAS AROUND

15Z THEN JUST EAST OF NORFOLK BY 18Z. THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON

WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE AND THE 03Z SREF

GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY

BE CORRECT.

TO FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND

CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT BOTH SLANTWISE AND UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE

CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS MAY YIELD ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS/DEEPER CONVECTION AS THE LARGE-SCALE PV-ANOMALY

BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND.

Well keep in mind the areas they list there being affected. That is where the persistent frontogenetic band on the NW side of the bombing low sets up...SE NY and SW NE.

[ORH_wxman]

3-8" for Ray looks about right.