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ALB issued an update to the near-term forecast... saying hourly RUC/HRRR bring heavy snow into their south/east portion of CWA by this evening lol

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY

1105 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --MESOSCALE UPDATE...

WE HAD AN INITIAL /POTENTIAL PRE?/ SNOWBAND THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPED

OVER THE CAPITAL REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS OF

THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN VT THIS MORNING WHICH RECENTLY HAS DISSIPATED

TO FLURRIES. WE NOW AWAIT FOR THE MAIN SHOW TO ARRIVE LATER THIS

AFTERNOON.

IMPRESSIVE COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WITH DIVERGENCE VECTORS VERY HIGH

WITH NUMEROUS CG/S JUST EAST OF THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. SURFACE

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1-2 MB/HR ARE UNDERWAY PER MSAS/RTMA WITH THE

LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW NOW COMING ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. PURE

EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING THE SNOW INTO LITCHFIELD...DUTCHESS AND

ULSTER COUNTY BETWEEN 17-19Z...THEN INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKS

AND CATSKILL REGION BETWEEN 20-22Z. LATEST HOURLY RUC/HRRR REVEAL

AN IMPRESSIVE 2D FGEN FIELDS COINCIDING WITH 700MB DEFORMATION TO

BRING HEAVY SNOW INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA

THIS EVENING. IT WOULD SEEM THIS BAND WOULD BECOME ORIENTED

SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. WE ARE

CAREFULLY EVALUATING THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH *MAY* RESULT IN CHANGES

TO SOME HEADLINES /POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/. FOR NOW...WE

WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR UPDATES TO THE CURRENT WSW/HEADLINES.

I'll take it. I[m rpretty sure that WHATEVER can happen to make it snow more will continually align as long as I can't get the snowblower to start. lol

I really think the gast line has frozen, though I can'be believe it would be that frozen. At least whatever we get will be light. Maybe the wind will blow my driveway clean.

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Yeah Ryan, dryslot will be a problem for some down there..maybe very near BOS too. Whatever that band is, setting up near the city may help. I'm slowly feeling not as concerend for the dryslot near BOS like earlier though. Still looks like CT could get some great banding.

It looks like the 700/850mb lows start scooting east just in time to pivot thing back. It's going to look ugly on radar for a little while though hopefully things crash east just in time.

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Okay--who's the snowblower reparir person who can make an emergency trip to Shelburne? lol

TOtally suck. Maybe the gas line froze. I've added dry gas, disconnected/reconnected the spark plug. Tried a blow dryer on it. Ugh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

When I fired mine up this morning, a mouse jumped out (again)... why do they do that. Now it will probably move back into the grill. I wish my cats were outdoor cats/mousers

I did need to use the plug in feature to start it... Must be from lack of use since February :axe:

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Okay--who's the snowblower reparir person who can make an emergency trip to Shelburne? lol

TOtally suck. Maybe the gas line froze. I've added dry gas, disconnected/reconnected the spark plug. Tried a blow dryer on it. Ugh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gumout.... Jest get clogged over the summer... Spray it in, let it sit... try again

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I have multiple tabs opened

1. The obs thread

2. this thread

3. email

4. facebook

5. Taunton homepage

6. mesoanalysis page

7. radar

8. unisys model page

9. NCEP QPF map

10. plymouth state sounding page

11. buoy 41001 data page

I hate two computers side-by-side with just as many if not more open on each

No we are not geeks just weenies.

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who wrote that?

This whole disco has most of us in pure frontal nudity

Sunday morning update on impending blizzard - widespread power outages imminent

Morning Update, December 26

Summary: No major changes. Blizzard conditions expected for many areas. Widespread power outages owing to wind/heavy snow weight damage. Snowfall totals of 18"-26" are likely in many interior locations of Southern New England. Amounts will be less north, ranging from 4"-6" in far northern VT/NH/ME to as much as 24" south.

Confidence: High confidence on 15"+ event widespread. Moderate to high confidence of 18"+ event. High confidence on blizzard verification.

Variables: Significant deviations are not expected. A coastal front will result in a change to mix and rain in SE MA and Cape Cod. Biggest question is how far inland this penetrates around Boston/North Shore, but not expected to move very far inland there.

Timing: Light snow is underway in some communities, but this is well in advance of the main snow shield. Heavier snow continues developing CT/RI/Southern MA through 1 PM, spreading through Southern VT, Southern NH and Southern ME through dinner. Heaviest snow falls Sunday evening through Monday mid-morning, though at least some snow will linger until mid-afternoon in Eastern New England, later in Maine.

Intensity: Generally speaking, heaviest snowfall rates of 1"-3" per hour, locally up to 4" per hour in potential thundersnow, will occur between 6 PM Sunday (south) and 5 AM Monday.

Accumulation: Many communities should receive between 18"-26" of snow - with lower amounts for some coastal communities, and especially in far Southeast MA. An isolated maximum of 30"-31" is possible along Route 95 or 495 between Dedham MA and Southern NH. More exact placement of such a small focal point is impossible at this point. Nonetheless, if this localized maximum verifies, a few communities may see record 24 hour snowfall amounts, though that may not occur at an official observing station.

Other concerns: Widespread power outages are likely due to high wind, and weight of heavy snow, particularly in Southern and Eastern New England. Some power outages may last a few days in harder hit communities, not so much because of widespread infrastructure compromise as in the ice storm, but rather owing to the fact that line crews will have to dig through 2 feet of snow to find the power lines. High confidence on minor coastal flood event for flood-prone northeast facing shorelines. Moderate confidence of scattered pockets of moderate coastal flooding, primarily along the South Shore of MA.

Impacts: Roads will deteriorate quickly Sunday afternoon and evening, south to north. Travel should not be attempted overnight. Problems at Logan Airport will only compound through Monday morning. Power outages will be a story starting late Sunday evening and lasting through Monday. Clearing of exhaust vents for houses will be important, as these snowfall totals will result in potential carbon monoxide poisoning issues. The quantity of snow poses significant risk for those shoveling and in poor physical condition or with a heart condition. As for the coastal flooding, the 3 AM high tide is nearly identical in height to the following 3 PM Monday tide, and both may bring minor to pockets of moderate flooding to prone northeast facing shorelines.

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