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My First HECS on the Boards.....

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

ALB issued an update to the near-term forecast... saying hourly RUC/HRRR bring heavy snow into their south/east portion of CWA by this evening lol

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY

1105 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --MESOSCALE UPDATE...

WE HAD AN INITIAL /POTENTIAL PRE?/ SNOWBAND THAT QUICKLY DEVELOPED

OVER THE CAPITAL REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS OF

THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN VT THIS MORNING WHICH RECENTLY HAS DISSIPATED

TO FLURRIES. WE NOW AWAIT FOR THE MAIN SHOW TO ARRIVE LATER THIS

AFTERNOON.

IMPRESSIVE COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WITH DIVERGENCE VECTORS VERY HIGH

WITH NUMEROUS CG/S JUST EAST OF THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. SURFACE

PRESSURE FALLS OF 1-2 MB/HR ARE UNDERWAY PER MSAS/RTMA WITH THE

LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW NOW COMING ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. PURE

EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING THE SNOW INTO LITCHFIELD...DUTCHESS AND

ULSTER COUNTY BETWEEN 17-19Z...THEN INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKS

AND CATSKILL REGION BETWEEN 20-22Z. LATEST HOURLY RUC/HRRR REVEAL

AN IMPRESSIVE 2D FGEN FIELDS COINCIDING WITH 700MB DEFORMATION TO

BRING HEAVY SNOW INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA

THIS EVENING. IT WOULD SEEM THIS BAND WOULD BECOME ORIENTED

SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. WE ARE

CAREFULLY EVALUATING THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH *MAY* RESULT IN CHANGES

TO SOME HEADLINES /POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/. FOR NOW...WE

WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR UPDATES TO THE CURRENT WSW/HEADLINES.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

Wanna ski tomorrow?

I'm champing at the bit for the first freshies of the year, but it's hard for me to envision any chairs spinning tomorrow, save for the very low ones possibly. If I had any confidence that wind holds would be over by mid-afternoon, tomorrow would be the day, but strongly leaning towards Tuesday right now. Do you disagree?

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

At any rate, I'm outta here folks...family function this afternoon. Hopefully back by 6pm.

Someone text me the Euro, though I guess it really doesn't matter much at this point.

Be safe!

Me too for a bit, need to do some stuff.

MM5 6h QPF forecast isn't terrible compare it to BR. Little slow near LI.

Suspect some upset weanies and overly happy weanies depending on location for those holding onto nam.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I'm bummed.. got a opp at work that I needed to ensure I'd be back for on Tue morning so I scurried out on the first flight this a.m. Downgraded the forecast a bit, and seems the one here may be generous at this pt even though just downgraded from WSW to WWA. Enjoy!

SIMSBURY CT

Today

Cloudy...snow...mainly this afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times this afternoon. Snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Cold. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. North winds 5 to 10 mph...increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph this afternoon. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Tonight

Snow. Snow may be heavy at times in the evening. Additional snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches. Windy. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Monday

Cloudy with snow in the morning...then partly sunny with a chance of snow in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches. Windy and cold. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

WASHINGTON DC

Rest of Today

Snow. Snow accumulation around an inch. Highs around 30. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph this afternoon. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Tonight

Snow...mainly in the evening. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Blustery with lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

LOL here's the MM5 it does a funny dance because it's not through loading but you get the picture. I don't think it's right but it's kind of ugly. Think it runs off the GFS first guess so this would be the GFS on steroids.

http://cheget.msrc.s.../12km.pcp3.html

haha definitely an ugly run... I am starting to think you get hammered though cweat.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Throwing in my 2 cents as regard to QPF out west and northwest. Looking at the radar and seeing the center east of Cape Hattaras I think western areas are not going to do as well as NAM suggests. Snow was suppose to start in DC/BWI earlier and has not made any real progress west so I think they will bust way low. Unless things change I am not bullish on QPF for western or northern areas like me in Central NH. This will mean nothing to the 90% of the people in this thread, you'll do great.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

so what website besides this one do you guys have open?

I have

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/ SPC site

http://w1.spc.woc.no...r=19&parm=pmsl# SPC hourly mesoscale

http://www.twisterdata.com/ for the RUC

I have the radar on my iphone..

what else?

I have multiple tabs opened

1. The obs thread

2. this thread

3. email

4. facebook

5. Taunton homepage

6. mesoanalysis page

7. radar

8. unisys model page

9. NCEP QPF map

10. plymouth state sounding page

11. buoy 41001 data page

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

Posted
Posted

Be safe!

Me too for a bit, need to do some stuff.

MM5 6h QPF forecast isn't terrible compare it to BR. Little slow near LI.

Suspect some upset weanies and overly happy weanies depending on location for those holding onto nam.

Are you Thinking the NAM is full of **it ?? Also any word on if the Canadian is still east?

(On my phone)

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

This whole disco has most of us in pure frontal nudity

Sunday morning update on impending blizzard - widespread power outages imminent

Morning Update, December 26

Summary: No major changes. Blizzard conditions expected for many areas. Widespread power outages owing to wind/heavy snow weight damage. Snowfall totals of 18"-26" are likely in many interior locations of Southern New England. Amounts will be less north, ranging from 4"-6" in far northern VT/NH/ME to as much as 24" south.

Confidence: High confidence on 15"+ event widespread. Moderate to high confidence of 18"+ event. High confidence on blizzard verification.

Variables: Significant deviations are not expected. A coastal front will result in a change to mix and rain in SE MA and Cape Cod. Biggest question is how far inland this penetrates around Boston/North Shore, but not expected to move very far inland there.

Timing: Light snow is underway in some communities, but this is well in advance of the main snow shield. Heavier snow continues developing CT/RI/Southern MA through 1 PM, spreading through Southern VT, Southern NH and Southern ME through dinner. Heaviest snow falls Sunday evening through Monday mid-morning, though at least some snow will linger until mid-afternoon in Eastern New England, later in Maine.

Intensity: Generally speaking, heaviest snowfall rates of 1"-3" per hour, locally up to 4" per hour in potential thundersnow, will occur between 6 PM Sunday (south) and 5 AM Monday.

Accumulation: Many communities should receive between 18"-26" of snow - with lower amounts for some coastal communities, and especially in far Southeast MA. An isolated maximum of 30"-31" is possible along Route 95 or 495 between Dedham MA and Southern NH. More exact placement of such a small focal point is impossible at this point. Nonetheless, if this localized maximum verifies, a few communities may see record 24 hour snowfall amounts, though that may not occur at an official observing station.

Other concerns: Widespread power outages are likely due to high wind, and weight of heavy snow, particularly in Southern and Eastern New England. Some power outages may last a few days in harder hit communities, not so much because of widespread infrastructure compromise as in the ice storm, but rather owing to the fact that line crews will have to dig through 2 feet of snow to find the power lines. High confidence on minor coastal flood event for flood-prone northeast facing shorelines. Moderate confidence of scattered pockets of moderate coastal flooding, primarily along the South Shore of MA.

Impacts: Roads will deteriorate quickly Sunday afternoon and evening, south to north. Travel should not be attempted overnight. Problems at Logan Airport will only compound through Monday morning. Power outages will be a story starting late Sunday evening and lasting through Monday. Clearing of exhaust vents for houses will be important, as these snowfall totals will result in potential carbon monoxide poisoning issues. The quantity of snow poses significant risk for those shoveling and in poor physical condition or with a heart condition. As for the coastal flooding, the 3 AM high tide is nearly identical in height to the following 3 PM Monday tide, and both may bring minor to pockets of moderate flooding to prone northeast facing shorelines.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Radar is really looking good for many of us. I think models aren't showing dry slot potential well enough in SE SNE.

wall of snow with heavies to come.. all biggies start like that. rocked..

i'll enjoy my dry nw winds, thanks

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

This whole disco has most of us in pure frontal nudity

Sunday morning update on impending blizzard - widespread power outages imminent

Morning Update, December 26

Summary: No major changes. Blizzard conditions expected for many areas. Widespread power outages owing to wind/heavy snow weight damage. Snowfall totals of 18"-26" are likely in many interior locations of Southern New England. Amounts will be less north, ranging from 4"-6" in far northern VT/NH/ME to as much as 24" south.

Confidence: High confidence on 15"+ event widespread. Moderate to high confidence of 18"+ event. High confidence on blizzard verification.

Variables: Significant deviations are not expected. A coastal front will result in a change to mix and rain in SE MA and Cape Cod. Biggest question is how far inland this penetrates around Boston/North Shore, but not expected to move very far inland there.

Timing: Light snow is underway in some communities, but this is well in advance of the main snow shield. Heavier snow continues developing CT/RI/Southern MA through 1 PM, spreading through Southern VT, Southern NH and Southern ME through dinner. Heaviest snow falls Sunday evening through Monday mid-morning, though at least some snow will linger until mid-afternoon in Eastern New England, later in Maine.

Intensity: Generally speaking, heaviest snowfall rates of 1"-3" per hour, locally up to 4" per hour in potential thundersnow, will occur between 6 PM Sunday (south) and 5 AM Monday.

Accumulation: Many communities should receive between 18"-26" of snow - with lower amounts for some coastal communities, and especially in far Southeast MA. An isolated maximum of 30"-31" is possible along Route 95 or 495 between Dedham MA and Southern NH. More exact placement of such a small focal point is impossible at this point. Nonetheless, if this localized maximum verifies, a few communities may see record 24 hour snowfall amounts, though that may not occur at an official observing station.

Other concerns: Widespread power outages are likely due to high wind, and weight of heavy snow, particularly in Southern and Eastern New England. Some power outages may last a few days in harder hit communities, not so much because of widespread infrastructure compromise as in the ice storm, but rather owing to the fact that line crews will have to dig through 2 feet of snow to find the power lines. High confidence on minor coastal flood event for flood-prone northeast facing shorelines. Moderate confidence of scattered pockets of moderate coastal flooding, primarily along the South Shore of MA.

Impacts: Roads will deteriorate quickly Sunday afternoon and evening, south to north. Travel should not be attempted overnight. Problems at Logan Airport will only compound through Monday morning. Power outages will be a story starting late Sunday evening and lasting through Monday. Clearing of exhaust vents for houses will be important, as these snowfall totals will result in potential carbon monoxide poisoning issues. The quantity of snow poses significant risk for those shoveling and in poor physical condition or with a heart condition. As for the coastal flooding, the 3 AM high tide is nearly identical in height to the following 3 PM Monday tide, and both may bring minor to pockets of moderate flooding to prone northeast facing shorelines.

Who here lives in the zone I highlighted?

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Radar is really looking good for many of us. I think models aren't showing dry slot potential well enough in SE SNE.

I can't wait to get those heavier echos in here...been doing pretty well considering what the radar is showing over the area although not it's somewhat lightened up a bit. Anyways it's just sticking like nothing, especially to the pavements...once this thing really gets going we'll easily see some 1-3''/HR type stuff and possibly 3-5''/HR stuff in the heaviest bands.

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

Why? Other than the Cape, we're all getting smoked.

It was a joke. I will travel a bit W if I get dryslotted. Still need to get the sand out of my sootsuit. Looks like from Will to Tip down to Jer up to Ray look to JP ATT. I'm right in the middle. Just reminded myself of that Stealers Wheel song. / LOL :thumbsup:

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