My First HECS on the Boards.....

[SC48]

15z RUC is still bullish on a much further western extent like the SREFS and GEFS

GFS is slightly further east not west as of 12Z today. Ruc has trouble with EC storms onec there off the coastline.

[Bostonseminole]

The geographic bandwagons are fun to watch. "This model says east!" ... "This model says west!"

not really

[jt5019]

I wonder if there were trucks or something putting stuff down on the roads, there is some weird green power-like substance on the road outside my window...I don't see it on the main street though, just my side road.

Thats usually a treated salt called clearlane. Cromwell ct dpw is using the same stuff and they were out salting the roads at 9 am.

[ROOSTA]

All Hands on Deck.... General Quarters.... Dive, Dive, Dive...Bombs Away...UH-RUH.

The barkings over. Now it's time for this BIG dog to BITE.

I have enough food, full tank of gas. Frig is full. Will be pumping the wood stove if needed. With all the insolation from the snow should be able to retain heat in the house if power goes.

There is no way I'm working tommorrow . Everyone be safe.

Just a liitle excerpt from BOX's AFD

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE DEVELOPING

OVER THE MID ATLC WITH A NOTABLE BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE

SETTING UP OVER DE/NJ AND ERN PA AT 9 AM. THEREFORE SNOW SHIELD

SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWEST ACROSS THIS AREA THIS MORNING AND

EVENTUALLY INTO CT. GIVEN IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE

IMAGERY THE RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE IS JUST AS POTENT WITH MESO

ANALYSIS INDICATING PRES FALLS UP TO 7MB IN THE PAST 3 HRS OFF THE

VA/NC COAST. 06Z AND 09Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE IMPRESSIVE

CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREDIBLE

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT /HGHT

FALLS OF THIS MAGNITUDE LAST SEEN WITH DEC 2005 STORM/.

THESE PRES FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND TRACK

NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A STRONG

COASTAL FRONT TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI LATER

THIS AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL FRONT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO INTENSE

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS JUST OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COLD

TEMPS AND DEW PTS AS NEARBY AS WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. IN

ADDITION 06Z NAM/GFS AND 09Z SREF ALL SUPPORT A DEFORMATION ZONE

AND ASSOCIATED FGEN SETTING UP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MA INTO RI AND

EASTERN CT 21Z-00Z TODAY. THE 06Z IS ON THE WEST EDGE OF THIS AND

THE 06Z NAM IS FARTHER E. LOCATION OF DRY SLOT WILL BE CRITICAL

WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS FOR THIS DRY SLOT TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAPE

AND ISLANDS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE STRONGEST SNOW BANDS FROM

BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE TO POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS BDL-ORH-MHT. IN

ADDITION TRACK OF 700 MB LOW ACROSS NANTUCKET SUPPORTS THIS AREAL

COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS HEAVY SNOW BANDS BEGINNING 21Z-00Z TODAY

AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD

HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR...AND PERHAPS EVEN

HIGHER IF COASTAL FRONT AND MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/FGEN OVERLAP FOR

A GIVEN TIME. ANYTIME A STRONG COASTAL FRONT SETS UP COMBINED WITH

IMPRESSIVE PRES FALLS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE GRAVITY

WAVE TO MOVE UP THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL

ENHANCE SNOWFALL AND WIND FURTHER.

...HAZARDS...

ALSO GIVEN LOCATION OF EXPECTED COASTAL FRONT AND DRY

SLOT MAY HAVE TO PULL BACK BLIZZARD WARNING TO THE I95 /BOSTON-

PROVIDENCE/ CORRIDOR. HOWEVER WILL EVALUATE FULL 12Z GUIDANCE

BEFORE ANY CHANGES. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.-- End Changed Discussion --

[wxnut]

Buoy just east of the Outer Banks is down to 993mb now.

Also being accompanied by some lightning strikes in the area..

[shadow]

Okay--who's the snowblower reparir person who can make an emergency trip to Shelburne? lol

TOtally suck. Maybe the gas line froze. I've added dry gas, disconnected/reconnected the spark plug. Tried a blow dryer on it. Ugh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

try getting it ready in the fall next yr not be for a HECS

[mattmfm]

FWIW RUC also has heavy snows pushing well into the DC metro last night. Thus far a flurry has yet to fall. It's had a problem overdeveloping the storm too far to the west for the last 24 hours.

[Southshorewx]

Jeez, it's brand new?

1a Is the gas turned on?

1. Did you leave gas in it from last year? If so purge.

2. Do you have a torpedo or other heater you can blast it with? blow dryer might not do it.

3. Fuel filter clogged?

4. Choke?

[weatherwiz]

Thats usually a treated salt called clearlane. Cromwell ct dpw is using the same stuff and they were out salting the roads at 9 am.

Ahhh, it looked much different from the second floor of my apartment lol...looked more power like but then when I went outside and saw it up close it was more rock like.

[moneypitmike]

Jeez, it's brand new?

1. Did you leave gas in it from last year? If so purge.

Yes--but had used stabilizer, and started it during the fall. Also, added fresh gas to it yesterday

2. Do you have a torpedo or other heater you can blast it with? blow dryer might not do it.

No.

3. Fuel filter clogged?

How the hell do I know?

4. Choke?

As far as I can tell it is.

[ski MRG]

GFS is slightly further east not west as of 12Z today. Ruc has trouble with EC storms onec there off the coasline.

Let me guess, from EMA?

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

992mb way east of Cape Hatteras, NC now. Buoy reading with a southerly wind, low is probably just to the west of this buoy. Off the coast of NC, not over it.

[powderfreak]

But the 6h 15z RUC at 700mb chopped 50+ miles off the back edge over just the 12z 9h. Been going steadily east sucking all the way.

RH fields don't look any different and the lift is just a bit more condensed... precip looks about the same, too.

I guess we'll all see what we want to see.

[weathafella]

I'm stuck in Andover, unfortunately.

Jerry...heavy heavy flight cancellations for tomorrow already taking place.

Scott......do you have any inside info? Its listed "on time" but I don't buy if for a second. How would they get the flight into BOS which that particular aircraft will be leaving from same?

[ORH_wxman]

But the 6h 15z RUC at 700mb chopped 50+ miles off the back edge over just the 12z 9h. Been going steadily east sucking all the way.

The RUC is total crap beyond about 5-6 hours and is almost always too far NW with coastals.

[CTWeatherFreak]

Downsloping for CT River Valley.. Has to be... Its had it every run and it will be a problem for HFD.

that V is decidedly east of the valley in Ct..

[DomNH]

RGEM looks more NAM like than GFS like with regard to QPF, FWIW.

[ski MRG]

Left my gear up in Stowe... I've also been under the weather and need to get better for a week-long trip to Utah on January 2nd. Alta and Snowbird FTW.

I'll stomp some pow for you. Maybe we can meet up after the New Year.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

MM5, that's really the total show, it brings the heaviest band over SE NE about 0z, that rockets out, we develop a strong band off NJ that rotates through and then not so much.

Just like the RUC I'm posting it for reference sake so we can look back and say "I cant remember how did the mm5 do in the blizzard?"

[CoastalWx]

Scott......do you have any inside info? Its listed "on time" but I don't buy if for a second. How would they get the flight into BOS which that particular aircraft will be leaving from same?

I just know airlines like Jet Blue and American are cancelling flights across NYC and BOS. Many times it depends on the carrier.

[NorEastermass128]

Just looking at the radar makes me smile. This is what it's all about! Bittersweet!

[Damage In Tolland]

Why are we still looking at models?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The RUC is total crap beyond about 5-6 hours and is almost always too far NW with coastals.

Yep. Honestly it's fine at 5h for simple purposes out to about 12 hours in the middle of the country. Just loses the show entirely on the east coast. Really..I think it drops to about 2-3 hours in these situations and really for me that's just for support of perceived trends on the water vapor radar etc.

Just doesnt do well outside of the middle of the US.

[SouthCoastMA]

Why are we still looking at models?

To see which ones still suck within 12 hours

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Why are we still looking at models?

I need to make a trip Monday trying to see if it's going to stall out like you'd suggsted and push the trip back to Tuesday.

Plus it provides a historical perspective of performance. We had this on easternuswx but Marcus decided it was best to wipe out a decade of data.

[weathafella]

I just know airlines like Jet Blue and American are cancelling flights across NYC and BOS. Many times it depends on the carrier.

American. I hate them. BOS-ORD FL 1480 departing 10:45. Logan may be closed.

[mattmfm]

Wow, that came in quickly.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

To see which ones still suck within 12 hours

LOL here's the MM5 it does a funny dance because it's not through loading but you get the picture. I don't think it's right but it's kind of ugly. Think it runs off the GFS first guess so this would be the GFS on steroids.

http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/12km.pcp3.html

[DomNH]

American. I hate them. BOS-ORD FL 1480 departing 10:45. Logan may be closed.

I'm not a met or an airline rep, but I'd plan on a later flight.

[Bostonseminole]

so what website besides this one do you guys have open?

I have

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/ SPC site

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# SPC hourly mesoscale

http://www.twisterdata.com/ for the RUC

I have the radar on my iphone..

what else?