My First HECS on the Boards.....

[CT Rain]

Yeah we may see a band pivot near there. As long as the H7 low is south of me and I have some sort of se or e flow..I should be ok I think.

Agreed

[free_man]

12z gfs is meh. just an avg blizzard

[Damage In Tolland]

Noyes just grabbing balls with hands and railing them into the wall

Sunday morning update on impending blizzard - widespread power outages imminent

Morning Update, December 26

Summary: No major changes. Blizzard conditions expected for many areas. Widespread power outages owing to wind/heavy snow weight damage. Snowfall totals of 18"-26" are likely in many interior locations of Southern New England. Amounts will be less north, ranging from 4"-6" in far northern VT/NH/ME to as much as 24" south.

[DomNH]

GFS back to the dagger for central MA and NE CT.

[Baroclinic Zone]

DId DT issue a final call map that anyone saw?

[weatherwiz]

Forget the models, it's nowcasting time.

[CT Rain]

I like the mesoscale banding setting up near ACY oriented SSW to NNE.

[dryslot]

I'll ride the NAM then.

It sucks need to ride the nam and euro.............

[Baroclinic Zone]

There's nothing about it that was last minute. It went east almost every run and look at that last devastating QPF hit out west/nw. The pivot point shifted again and now it's so early it is an absolute blizzard for you.

I'm in the game still need one more shift.

Could be the model just seeking out the best baroclinic zone. The 20-30 mile shift makes a world of difference.

[RICoastalMan]

12z gfs is meh. just an avg blizzard

it sure beats the moderate nothing I've had since February

[CT Rain]

Let's just step back a second and enjoy how incredible this is. This is by far the most positive model bust (and one of the largest) in my 15 years of model watching/forecasting. Incredible.

[snowNH]

I'll ride the NAM then.

Not just because its better for MBY but because its a higher RES. model and is a lot better with the QPF closer to events... The GFS is really vouching for that "V" signature in hours 12-18 affecting the CT-River Valley and Central MA. What worries me now is how fast that band died that popped up over C MA. There's a lot of dry air and that could eat at heavy precip for a while ALA December 2010 KU

[HarveyLeonardFan]

Fred Campagna's Profile

• 
  Fred CampagnaLast significant computer model runs coming in this morning. After that, it's true storm tracking! Providence is still right on the edge of very heavy snow. There will likely be about 20 miles between 12-18" of snow and less than 5".

[wxnut]

The bigger issue isn't the wind as the "frequent gusts over 35" requirement is subjective, but the visibility at or below 1/4 mile for three straight hours. It's tough to keep the visibility that low for 3 straight hours.

This thing will be producing heavy snowfall rates of 1-3"/hr for a good 6 hrs or more.. add those winds gusting 30-40 mph and you will easily have vsbys below 1/4 mile for 3 hours easy. Blizzard warnings should be reserved for the most severe winter storms.. which I think this one is shaping up to be. Don't worry about the verification.. look at the big picture. If it was up to me, I'd be going blizzard for a larger area esp in CT and central MA.

[SnowLove]

12z gfs is meh. just an avg blizzard

Is it sad that I can't tell if you're joking or not?

[CoastalWx]

Let's just step back a second and enjoy how incredible this is. This is by far the most positive model bust (and one of the largest) in my 15 years of model watching/forecasting. Incredible.

You're not kidding. This is just spectacular.

[OKpowdah]

24-30 hours out, and there are huge differences between the NAM and GFS. They seemed to trend away from each other to some extent

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z NAM still has me receiving 19" with a little taint. God I hope that is correct.

Station ID: KTAN Lat:   41.87 Long:  -71.02                                                        
NAM Model Run: 12Z 26DEC 2010
 HR Valid 	2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in. 	Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
  0 12/26 12Z   28 	26      32   	6    0.00  0.00    530    541   -7.2 -23.6 1013   0          CLR   	0.0   15.1
  3 12/26 15Z   32 	31      34   	8    0.01  0.00    531    542   -7.6 -24.2 1013 100 -SN   000OVC323    0.2    2.2
  6 12/26 18Z   32 	31      36      12    0.08  0.00    534    542   -7.2 -23.0 1010 100 -SN   000OVC284    0.8    0.6
  9 12/26 21Z   32 	32      32      18    0.20  0.00    537    540   -6.8 -18.5 1003 100 SN    001OVC308    2.0    0.3
 12 12/27 00Z   32 	32      33      23    0.47  0.00    539    537   -7.2 -19.4  997 100 SN    000OVC141    4.9    0.3
 15 12/27 03Z   33 	32      29      28    0.32  0.00    540    532   -4.8 -19.8  989 100 SN    003OVC111    3.1    0.7
 18 12/27 06Z   33 	33      25      27    0.31  0.00    539    523   -2.5 -22.1  980 100 SN    000OVC151    3.1    0.5
 21 12/27 09Z   35 	35      19      20    0.27  0.00    535    513   -0.2 -24.7  972 100 RA   	OVC132    0.1    1.3
 24 12/27 12Z   32 	32 	341      20    0.31  0.00    533    508   -1.4 -25.8  969 100 SN    002OVC108    3.3    0.3
 27 12/27 15Z   30 	28 	333      26    0.13  0.00    531    508   -3.9 -26.7  971 100 -SN      OVC073    1.3    0.6
 30 12/27 18Z   29 	25 	322      24    0.03  0.00    529    509   -8.2 -27.6  974 100 -SN      OVC078    0.4    1.0

[moneypitmike]

GFS not looking too good...

??????? Whyd do you say that?

[RICoastalMan]

Fred Campagna's Profile

• 
  Fred CampagnaLast significant computer model runs coming in this morning. After that, it's true storm tracking! Providence is still right on the edge of very heavy snow. There will likely be about 20 miles between 12-18" of snow and less than 5".

Fred holding his ground on a sharp cutoff in heavy snow near providence I guess. The latest gfs doesn't agree with him. Channel 12 forecasts the most snow east and south, channel 10 in between.

[weatherwiz]

Pressure now down to 995mb per mesoanalysis...deepening at about 1mb per hour for the past several hours...should start really going through more rapid cyclogenesis soon.

[CT Rain]

Im a little surprised how low the 9z SREF probabilities are. They are really really hammering western areas.

[ORH_wxman]

Not just because its better for MBY but because its a higher RES. model and is a lot better with the QPF closer to events... The GFS is really vouching for that "V" signature in hours 12-18 affecting the CT-River Valley and Central MA. What worries me now is how fast that band died that popped up over C MA. There's a lot of dry air and that could eat at heavy precip for a while ALA December 2010 KU

Dry is not an issue with this storm at the onset.

[CT Rain]

Dry is not an issue with this storm at the onset.

lol no kidding we're snowing here from just low level crap

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

storm down to 994mb.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z GFS love for SE MA out to ORH back down into RI.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

55mph gusts on the southeast side of the low.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Could be the model just seeking out the best baroclinic zone. The 20-30 mile shift makes a world of difference.

This should close off a few hours earlier than was modeled previously as it's stronger. The stronger it is the more likely IMO (not unrational) to think it wont occlude faster/jump ENE. I really like the GFS trend.

If right you'd never change. 1000-850mb you do, but its cold enough aloft, could only see you changing if you and Scott found your way into the dry slot.

I wouldn't worry about QPF yet to the NW, when I refer to it I just mean it's indicative of the dynamics in an aggregate way in the model. I'm not sold it's accurate on cutting it way down on the western extremes but it is hard to deny it's done it for 6 runs in a row now on the SW/W edge.

[ski MRG]

Im a little surprised how low the 9z SREF probabilities are. They are really really hammering western areas.

Hmmmm. What gives?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

12z GFS love for SE MA out to ORH back down into RI.

Why do all these maps have a triangle semi snow hole over Kev? Error, shadow of the ORH hills? Every model hitting it now.