My First HECS on the Boards.....

[EastBayWx]

Snow picking up in intensity here. Temp up to 29.9F but wind still due North. Jackpot to me looks like Essex County, Mass with maybe a secondary max Burrillville RI to Norwood Mass. Coastal front development will be key, most likely Newport to Plymouth. I highly doubt Providence to Boston (downtown) deals with mixing. Cape Cod will be raining tonight but still does well on the back end with 5-10" +. No one in RI, Mass, or CT sees under 6" except possibly Nantucket.

[Organizing Low]

haha im in ottawa at my parents place and i was flipping through the TV channels

seems like their ABC/NBC/CBS/FOX stations are all from Boston!!.....they used to be from Detroit, the cable provider mustve switched recently.

they used to be from boston back in the day too in the 90s, i remmeber that season when boston got a couple/few huge snowfalls in short order, dont recall the exact year.,.,,,,it was good viewing!

[weatherwiz]

I'm surprised Hartford isn't in the blizzard warning.. yet their forecast certainly has the winds and the accumulations.

Were not going to see the sustained winds to meet criteria.

[powderfreak]

Yeah it's close. Looking at the NAM it;s a classic snow bomb as Weathafella said. If you mixed/turned it would be inconsequential. Something still looks off to me in terms of the mid levels, I understand how its driving all the precip but kind of seems to me like things should bounch a few miles east in terms of temps. That said one thing to note, the 12h NAM position from 0z was a little to far EAST of the 12z init 0z. So its going to important to watch the trends as it develops. Doesnt mean it wont tick east but the first 12 hour forecast positions have been too far east.

EDIT: It may be a tick west early because the s/w is stronger. That may not transfer to it being west up here, actually the opposite is possible if the 5h jumps a little faster because of it.

You're going to have a field day with the RUC today... it has been all over the place.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I never bought in to that "can't happen because it's a strong Nina" crap.

[Bryan]

Going to be a battle with the R/S line here. Typically I fare pretty well with it because I'm away from the coast, it is when it becomes SE/NW issue that I get screwed....holding out hope.

[weatherwiz]

I never bought in to that "can't happen because it's a strong Nina" crap.

Me neither.

[MaineJayhawk]

I never bought in to that "can't happen because it's a strong Nina" crap.

Not many absolutes in wx.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

So much for 'you can't get a KU storm in a La Nina' .... CORRECTION, ...so much for 'you can't get a KU storm in a STRONG La Nina.

Couple quickies on why that supposition was so silly:

All great points, would have had a greater impact if stated about this time two days ago when everyone was calling for a miss and the Euro had nothing for most everyone!

The only one that didn't waiver here was Kev, I thought we'd struggle to drive .5 through his house and Will's in the medium range.

I guess the point is dead though, apparently a KU can occur in a strong one.

[CoastalWx]

Scott, Just got a call from a friend that is supposed to fly to Italy tomorrow out of Logan. He wanted to know what I thought, I told little chance at least early in the day. Was that sound advice?

Man good luck with that. Maybe late in the day, but I'm sure everything will be back logged.

[MaineJayhawk]

We're all going to have one hell of a weather hangover once this is done.

[Organizing Low]

i have to admit that i certainly wish i was back in CT or NYC right now.

[HoarfrostHubb]

final call

22-32 inches ORH region

boston jackpots N and W burbs 18-26

SNH jackpots 16-24....could be low here.

widespread 10-22 inches elsewhere.

and a Merry Christmas to you!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not many absolutes in wx.

Once I saw N central MD see over 60" in 5 days, my mind became a bit more malleable.

[powderfreak]

You guys up there always find a way to pull 20" off of some freak upslope or something....doesn't matter where is tracks.

Haha, yeah I'm not up there for this storm... I'll change my location on my profile. I must say though, I've lived up there in N.VT for over 7 years now, and its only been in the last 2 years or so that those freak meso-scale storms occur. However, when I first moved up there we had a lot of major synoptic storms... December 2003 was my first winter month up there and it snowed 50" in BTV (two 20" and one 10" event), I was like oh wow, this is nice. But no, it isn't always like that.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah it's close. Looking at the NAM it;s a classic snow bomb as Weathafella said. If you mixed/turned it would be inconsequential. Something still looks off to me in terms of the mid levels, I understand how its driving all the precip but kind of seems to me like things should bounch a few miles east in terms of temps. That said one thing to note, the 12h NAM position from 0z was a little to far EAST of the 12z init 0z. So its going to important to watch the trends as it develops. Doesnt mean it wont tick east but the first 12 hour forecast positions have been too far east.

EDIT: It may be a tick west early because the s/w is stronger. That may not transfer to it being west up here, actually the opposite is possible if the 5h jumps a little faster because of it.

This system reminds me of a SWFE in some respects. Huge front end thump than dryslot potential.

[CoastalWx]

Once I saw N central MD see over 60" in 5 days, my mind became a bit more malleable.

When you also have like 5SD NAO blocking...that throws out any assumptions on this pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

All great points, would have had a greater impact if stated about this time two days ago when everyone was calling for a miss and the Euro had nothing for most everyone. It's easy to say someone was wrong with the benefit of hindsight. Don S put those points out there more than a week before the storm was even formed.

Great points though otherwise.

No one is claiming he was wrong; what Don stated was right, we are merely implying that the extreme state of the polar indecies, coupled with inadequate sample size render his data less significant.

Is it correct, sure.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

No one is claiming he was wrong; what Don stated was right, we are merely implying that the extreme state of the polar indecies, coupled with inadequate sample size render his data less significant.

Is it correct, sure.

Ray I know, I didn't mean it the way it came out and edited it before there were any responses for clarity. What I was trying to say is the point hammered home two days ago would have saved a lot of whining and "end of the world" time stuff. Tongue and cheek fail.

[weatherwiz]

Pretty sick...at least a -5 SD showing up!

[OKpowdah]

Just went back to bed for a couple hours, and woke up to beautiful dendrites! Very fluffy half inch on the ground.

Just scanned through the last 14 pages. LOL at the worries over the NAM. Looks great! A few hours slower all around. QPF bumped up for everyone involved

[snowNH]

Does anyone remember when the M/A posters we're trolling the SNE board last year during that 60 inches? I would love payback, but I'm not that immature.

That popup band stops just short of MHT... God I know how this storm is going to go already

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ray I know, I didn't mean it the way it came out and edited it before there were any responses for clarity. What I was trying to say is the point hammered home two days ago would have saved a lot of whining and "end of the world" time stuff. Tongue and cheek fail.

Well, I made a couple of posts refuting that stance and I think John did too, but someone probably should have taken the initiative to dedicate a thread to clearing that up...agreed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Does anyone remember when the M/A posters we're trolling the SNE board last year during that 60 inches? I would love payback, but I'm not that immature.

That popup band stops just short of MHT... God I know how this storm is going to go already

I am...here's to dryslot from Philly on sw.

salud!

[ski MRG]

Haha, yeah I'm not up there for this storm... I'll change my location on my profile. I must say though, I've lived up there in N.VT for over 7 years now, and its only been in the last 2 years or so that those freak meso-scale storms occur. However, when I first moved up there we had a lot of major synoptic storms... December 2003 was my first winter month up there and it snowed 50" in BTV (two 20" and one 10" event), I was like oh wow, this is nice. But no, it isn't always like that.

Hey Scott, how are you liking my locale this morning? - sn currently. Can't wait for the bomb to go off.

[powderfreak]

No one is claiming he was wrong; what Don stated was right, we are merely implying that the extreme state of the polar indecies, coupled with inadequate sample size render his data less significant.

Is it correct, sure.

That's what I love about Don S. posts... he usually just states facts and lets the weenies run with it. The small sample size definitely was the crutch in that discussion.

[weatherwiz]

Does anyone remember when the M/A posters we're trolling the SNE board last year during that 60 inches? I would love payback, but I'm not that immature.

That popup band stops just short of MHT... God I know how this storm is going to go already

Please just stop posting negative stuff, today at least, there is nothing negative about today...with the exception of some mixing issues along the Cape but this is a day where just about everyone here should feel positive and happy. We don't need negative stuff on a day like today, today is a day to be POSITIVE.

[ski MRG]

Man good luck with that. Maybe late in the day, but I'm sure everything will be back logged.

Thanks, as we thought.

[MaineJayhawk]

Pretty sick...at least a -5 SD showing up!

It would be appreciated if an explanation would accompany these graphs. A lot of weenies - myself included - may have no idea what this represents. And if it means SW Maine is going to be lathered in snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yes... and interior MA (*just* west of BOS to ORH) and northern RI. I may be too low SE NY, NE NJ, though... contemplated them in 16+ too, but left them out. I can guess which birdie told you... there are limited birdies who would've seen my forecast.

Hey Gary,,lol... the little birdies are singing a sweet sweet song this morning.

Thanks for the forecast and enjoy the snow..it's the only snow we've got