My First HECS on the Boards.....

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Close call on the euro too..lol. Only thing I don't like is that mid levels dry out temporarily, but it explodes at 12z.

here is 06z, 09z and 12z euro.

Thanks Scott. Let's hope for you the low pinches a little sooner at all levels wouldn't hurt anyone and would solidify your position.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Well take it fwiw, but I think it gets the point across about how close the r/s line will be.

you wonder if logan itself struggles a bit but downtown and westward is fine

[Chrisrotary12]

Well take it fwiw, but I think it gets the point across about how close the r/s line will be.

I'm going to be doing so much flirting with the r/s line that my gf is going to get mad at me lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'd feel good where you and Bob and Weathafella are. Can't get a full blown snow wood yet because you won't know until later.....I'll be the parakeet. If it turns quicker/later here I think that's a HUGE signal for you guys too.

I am torn down here. If I can keep the winds more N to NE I think I'll be ok. If they don't I'll be tainted. I will see an impressive front end thump, regardless but I'd like to flirt with 20". Gun to my head I still think 12-14" is possible.

[larvay]

Nothing but weenie snow here at the moment, but good to know there won't be hours of virga-watching on radar. (I hope)

[mattmfm]

Walking the line..lol. Here is 03z, 06z, 09, and 12z tomorrow on the NAM.

If I managed to be the pivot point... yum

[40/70 Benchmark]

.5" down.

[Bostonseminole]

Evreyone issue Ray congrtas now on highest amounts. I think 3-4 feet is reasonable

glad I am close to Ray..

[CoastalWx]

3" when I look down.

Sorry to hear that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

glad I am close to Ray..

You're a good dude and it's cool sharing texts and all, but it's entirely of a platonic nature, Raul.....hope we're on the same page.

[ski MRG]

Sorry to hear that.

LOL.

[weatherwiz]

It's all powdery outside, if Billy Mays were here he's be having a field day.

[ORH_wxman]

Nice weenie bit from BOX

06Z AND 09Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE IMPRESSIVE

CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREDIBLE

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT /HGHT

FALLS OF THIS MAGNITUDE LAST SEEN WITH DEC 2005 STORM/.

[Damage In Tolland]

Rumor has it that Gary Gray has CT in max snow zone of 16plus..from a little birdie

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is SICK

LOCATION OF DRY SLOT WILL BE CRITICALWITH CURRENT INDICATIONS FOR THIS DRY SLOT TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAPEAND ISLANDS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE STRONGEST SNOW BANDS FROMBOSTON TO PROVIDENCE TO POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS BDL-ORH-MHT. INADDITION TRACK OF 700 MB LOW ACROSS NANTUCKET SUPPORTS THIS AREALCOVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS HEAVY SNOW BANDS BEGINNING 21Z-00Z TODAYAND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELDHOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR...AND PERHAPS EVENHIGHER IF COASTAL FRONT AND MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/FGEN OVERLAP FORA GIVEN TIME.

Could you imagine snowfall rates higher than 4''/HR? That's like LES stuff

I've seen that twice....Dec 2005 and January 2005.

Nice weenie bit from BOX

06Z AND 09Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE IMPRESSIVE

CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREDIBLE

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT /HGHT

FALLS OF THIS MAGNITUDE LAST SEEN WITH DEC 2005 STORM/.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I am torn down here. If I can keep the winds more N to NE I think I'll be ok. If they don't I'll be tainted. I will see an impressive front end thump, regardless but I'd like to flirt with 20". Gun to my head I still think 12-14" is possible.

Yeah it's close. Looking at the NAM it;s a classic snow bomb as Weathafella said. If you mixed/turned it would be inconsequential. Something still looks off to me in terms of the mid levels, I understand how its driving all the precip but kind of seems to me like things should bounch a few miles east in terms of temps. That said one thing to note, the 12h NAM position from 0z was a little to far EAST of the 12z init 0z. So its going to important to watch the trends as it develops. Doesnt mean it wont tick east but the first 12 hour forecast positions have been too far east.

EDIT: It may be a tick west early because the s/w is stronger. That may not transfer to it being west up here, actually the opposite is possible if the 5h jumps a little faster because of it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Rumor has it that Gary Gray has CT in max snow zone of 16plus..from a little birdie

Congrats on 14

[powderfreak]

If we can get some frontogenetic banding here in combination with the upslope, a really big total is possible.

Nothing like a cool 10" in 2 hours thanks to upslope and banding. That can really help to pad the totals lol.

-SN back here near ALB. I look forward to enjoying this storm with you guys. Forecast for here from ALB is 6-16" and I'm expecting a nice 6-12" snowfall. No complaints and it'll be awesome to enjoy this after all the misses last year.

[Damage In Tolland]

You're a good dude and it's cool sharing texts and all, but it's entirely of a platonic nature, Raul.....hope we're on the same page.

Enter only?

[dryslot]

We're all set. I was bitching about this going on overnight, but at the same time I'm wicked happy that all this pregame fell on a weekend. Family not so happy, but there'll be other Christmases.

Storms like these do not come around often you have to enjoy them when they do........

[ski MRG]

Sorry to hear that.

Scott, Just got a call from a friend that is supposed to fly to Italy tomorrow out of Logan. He wanted to know what I thought, I told little chance at least early in the day. Was that sound advice?

[weatherwiz]

Rumor has it that Gary Gray has CT in max snow zone of 16plus..from a little birdie

Looking at the 12z NAM I seriously wouldn't be surprised to see parts of N. CT in the jackpot zone...the 12z NAM is just about perfect, especially for me here. I could certainly see some 20-24'' totals somewhere in CT...not widespread but some lollipops.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nothing like a cool 10" in 2 hours thanks to upslope and banding. That can really help to pad the totals lol.

-SN back here near ALB. I look forward to enjoying this storm with you guys. Forecast for here from ALB is 6-16" and I'm expecting a nice 6-12" snowfall. No complaints and it'll be awesome to enjoy this after all the misses last year.

You guys up there always find a way to pull 20" off of some freak upslope or something....doesn't matter where is tracks.

[Bostonseminole]

You're a good dude and it's cool sharing texts and all, but it's entirely of a platonic nature, Raul.....hope we're on the same page.

sorry wrong board Ray, I meant to send you this on the other board, you know which one I am talking about.

[wxnut]

Rumor has it that Gary Gray has CT in max snow zone of 16plus..from a little birdie

I'm surprised Hartford isn't in the blizzard warning.. yet their forecast certainly has the winds and the accumulations.

[millwx]

Rumor has it that Gary Gray has CT in max snow zone of 16plus..from a little birdie

Yes... and interior MA (*just* west of BOS to ORH) and northern RI. I may be too low SE NY, NE NJ, though... contemplated them in 16+ too, but left them out. I can guess which birdie told you... there are limited birdies who would've seen my forecast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

sorry wrong board Ray, I meant to send you this on the other board, you know which one I am talking about.

Oh dear

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yes... and interior MA (*just* west of BOS to ORH) and northern RI. I may be too low SE NY, NE NJ, though... contemplated them in 16+ too, but left them out. I can guess which birdie told you... there are limited birdies who would've seen my forecast.

Kev usually omits some of the birdie's chirps.....par for the course.

[Typhoon Tip]

So much for 'you can't get a KU storm in a La Nina' .... CORRECTION, ...so much for 'you can't get a KU storm in a STRONG La Nina.

Couple quickies on why that supposition was so silly:

1) Sample size was completely inadequate to derive a confidence value. Chi test probably would have shown that (from stats experience we know that to be true).

2) How many La Ninas have there been spanning the last 50 years? 10 - arguing for 11 or 9, not withstanding. Of those ~4 events were greater than -1.0C in the mean. 4/50(100) = 8% of the time. 8 percent! That's the skinny number of times we have to work with. Of that small fraction of years out of the last 50 ...you have to then apply that relative rarity, to the frequency of KU's per annum (as an expectation/mean per year). You really don't have to do the arithmetic any further. You can immediately see that the odds of these two disparate ( and there really is no connection because the rarity precedes the conclusion ) circumstances collocating in time is slim - real slim. That's the reason. In fact, as a Meteorologist, one can almost argue from a purely physical point of view that there should have been more frequency, and that we've dodged some bullets through the years. The reason why is because the La Nina background canvas wants to deposit cold into the NP ...to perhaps as far E as the GL region, and that would occasionally enhance the mean baroclinic axis in the OV to NE where storm production should take place. In fact, if you look at the longer term precipitation anomaly distribution there is in fact a small maximum in that area of the conus. It is entirely logical and reasonable to assume that of those times a few events could ...and probably should have (but merely did not for whatever local time scale permutation prevented (I call it the Kevin factor ) been more coastal in nature.

The problem is that as human beings we like to put nice little rules and bounds on things. Nature, however, is not like that. The events of the atmosphere and the physical processes that drive them to being occurs upon a seamless spectrum. A purely baroclinic systems are in fact impossible; likewise for a purely barotropic ones - there is always a small fraction of either physical process taking place across the aisle of dominant process type. All you can say is that to some degree of excruciating tolerance, x, y, or z system is baroclinic or barotropic. The same relativity exists at the scope of the hemisphere, too, and a purely La Nina year is also a virtual distinction. The philosophical perspective, if understood, serves as a good segway in to the 3rd point...

3) How many of the La Nina years spanning the last 50 was there a concurrent 300 years superpostion negative solar cycles? Answer: 0 0 number of times, and therefore no means to check history for reference on how the very highly correlated tnegative AO (which is hemispheric, not just NAO's bed buddies with western Europe and the eastern United States) on seasonal time scales might alter things. -AO means that the westerlies are suppressed everywhere (save any local time scale anomalies of course...). What that means is that with westerlies being S and blocking evolving at higher latitudes, there is entire arena is hugely untested, uncharted waters as they like to say...

Well, that's long enough and probably a bit much for nog hang-overs... But, sufficed it is to say, I was really never impressed at all with those Nina -related limitation ideas that were bandied about the Met community during Autumn.

Storm at hand:

...Nice, woke up this morning to light snow ...some 5 hours ahead of schedule. I checked the radar and there is some fascinating detail there. You can see a stationary lead deformation band developed in northern Mass to southern NH, ...just sitting there pulsing light to almost moderate. You can see some OES cutting WSW. Lastly, the main show is a wall approaching the South Coast. Its 22F with no evaporational stealing of the snow going on here.

12Z NAM is 968mb near Fire Island, then moves east... This is a perfect location and evolution to maximize snow and probably exceed its own QPF - the type of evolution that busts forecasts too low on totals, too. I got over 2" melted at BOS... Inland the ratios may be closer to 15::1 so that almost mind-boggles this deal for what it may end up - wow! Looking at the 18 hours of 35-40KT BL flow with all that QPF, ...yea, BLIZZARD, no other way to cut it. I would also not be surprise if FIT-CEF qualify eventually given to the dryness of the snow and the frequenty gusts to 35mph that I feel will verify there with such low press crawling E under that axis - while very heavy fall rates are taking place notwithstanding.

Big warm up next week before a pattern reload at the end of the first week of January.

[weatherwiz]

This is ridiculous, a bunch of Whale fans are wimping out about going to the game in Bridgeport b/c they are scared lol...it's a 3:00 game and these games usually take just over 2 hours, the game will be done by 5:15 at the latest. My friend keeps bugging me about them shutting down trains. The worst isn't until later tonight...my God.