NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

[Kingwill]

No increase in precip on the euro but the low is much stronger... well that sucks.

Just cause it doesnt say it doesnt mean it wont have a little more moisture..A couple of these short range Models have just shown 1.5 to 2.0 QPF in parts of the area.

[ace0927]

Ace has been on this storm for over a week now-- which is rather unusual.

thanks Alex. the moment I saw the h5 depiction last weekend I said if it was right this would be our storm for the year....

im starting to think this winter, maybe because we had a mod el nino last year (i believe) is acting as a weak la nina instead of a mod/strong one, will wind up outperforming. how many of the past strong nina's had a mod el nino the year before? has there ever been such a quick switch from one to the other? i wonder if one is offsetting the other....

[ace0927]

note...the western dry cutoff is due to the really strong sfc high to the west. the precip hits that dry wall and poof!!

that strong HP will also help generate stronger winds further east....no?

[NorthShoreWx]

There have been so many great snowstorms over the past 30 years, but none had the type of wind speeds that are modeled for this one. If they verify, some of you younguns might get a little taste of what 1978 was like. This won't be a repeat of that for a number of reasons (primarily duration and total snowfall for C-E LI), but there is a chance the winds could rival it. This potentially could be the best storm since 1978 (best all around..not saying greatest snowfall). I am very psyched for this one!

[NJwinter23]

My ratios actually weren't great in 96. As Bill G mentioned, too much wind. Had 2.14" water for 24.2" snow... just a bit over 11:1 ratio

OK that does make sense.I expect this storm will result in the same issues. and hence why im sticking to 10-18", with 20" totals in spots within "the bands"

[eduggs]

The Euro is impressive. The SLP is well inside the UKMET/GFS/NAM position at 24hrs. Excellent for tri-state.

[ace0927]

There have been so many great snowstorms over the past 30 years, but none had the type of wind speeds that are modeled for this one. If they verify, some of you younguns might get a little taste of what 1978 was like. This won't be a repeat of that for a number of reasons (primarily duration and total snowfall for C-E LI), but there is a chance the winds could rival it. This potentially could be the best storm since 1978 (best. all around..not saying greatest snowfall). I am very psyched for this one!

north shore- i started writing out a post similar to this a few hours ago but walked away from comp and never got around to posting it....i was 5 in 1978...i remember the snow but not the wind...I think this storm might have a higher impact on C and W LI than that did....probably wont be anything like 78 on E LI and SNE

[A-L-E-X]

thanks Alex. the moment I saw the h5 depiction last weekend I said if it was right this would be our storm for the year....

im starting to think this winter, maybe because we had a mod el nino last year (i believe) is acting as a weak la nina instead of a mod/strong one, will wind up outperforming. how many of the past strong nina's had a mod el nino the year before? has there ever been such a quick switch from one to the other? i wonder if one is offsetting the other....

I agree, and if you saw my post from before, I mentioned that its quite possible that when you have la ninas following el ninos (1966-67,1995-96, 2005-06) it still behaves like a remnant el nino at times BTW its actually even better than that-- we're in a mod la nina following a strong el nino.

I also think when you have such strong blocking and a big Dec snowstorm, the pattern will repeat again in the winter. At worst, we should at least have a bookend winter, with a big storm to bring it in and a big storm to close it out. Two winters like that were 1955-56 and 1959-60.

[A-L-E-X]

There have been so many great snowstorms over the past 30 years, but none had the type of wind speeds that are modeled for this one. If they verify, some of you younguns might get a little taste of what 1978 was like. This won't be a repeat of that for a number of reasons (primarily duration and total snowfall for C-E LI), but there is a chance the winds could rival it. This potentially could be the best storm since 1978 (best all around..not saying greatest snowfall). I am very psyched for this one!

As long as JFK and LGA beat that 14" snowfall total from Feb 1978 I'll consider this one better!

lol jk!

[SnowGoose69]

Here it is.....

LGA - 15

EWR - 13

JFK - 12

NYC - 13

HPN - 15

SWF - 13

POU - 13

BDR - 15

FRG - 17

ISP - 19

FOK - 15

HTO - 13

FWN - 12

MMU - 11

ABE - 8

PHL - 10

ISP has high bust potential as if a coastal front forms they could be way lower, but if its east of them way higher.

[nzucker]

thanks Alex. the moment I saw the h5 depiction last weekend I said if it was right this would be our storm for the year....

im starting to think this winter, maybe because we had a mod el nino last year (i believe) is acting as a weak la nina instead of a mod/strong one, will wind up outperforming. how many of the past strong nina's had a mod el nino the year before? has there ever been such a quick switch from one to the other? i wonder if one is offsetting the other....

There's been a bunch of quick switches such as 72-73 (third strongest El Niño ever) to 73-74 (strongest La Niña ever)...87-88 (moderate/strong El Niño) to 88-89 (strong La Niña) and 06-07 (moderate El Niño) to 07-08 (moderate La Niña). But none of them had the NAO/AO blocking that this season has had; we don't usually see this type of high-latitude blocking in the stronger La Niñas so we're in fairly unprecedented territory.

[A-L-E-X]

The Euro is impressive. The SLP is well inside the UKMET/GFS/NAM position at 24hrs. Excellent for tri-state.

Why did you cross out the GFS?

[ace0927]

I agree, and if you saw my post from before, I mentioned that its quite possible that when you have la ninas following el ninos (1966-67,1995-96, 2005-06) it still behaves like a remnant el nino at times BTW its actually even better than that-- we're in a mod la nina following a strong el nino.

I also think when you have such strong blocking and a big Dec snowstorm, the pattern will repeat again in the winter. At worst, we should at least have a bookend winter, with a big storm to bring it in and a big storm to close it out. Two winters like that were 1955-56 and 1959-60.

i dont understand why all of a sudden (especially the past few years) every single winter has HUGE snow storms. When was the last time we had a run of the mill 4-7" snow event that didnt involve a switch to sleet or rain? Growing up that was the norm...now it seems easier to get a 12-18" storm than a 3-6" one....

[ace0927]

As long as JFK and LGA beat that 14" snowfall total from Feb 1978 I'll consider this one better!

lol jk!

my money is on the over for both...by a lot.

[Kingwill]

Well I was born in 1975 and the First Major Snowstorm I can remember was Blizzard of 83"..Since than 1993,1996,2000 and to a lesser extent 2006 and maybe a couple others including one last year were some of the memorable ones..I m hoping this storm joins that list..

[tmagan]

LAMP guidance indicates wind gusts from 35-40 knots tonight from Philadelphia to Westhampton Beach.

[A-L-E-X]

There's been a bunch of quick switches such as 72-73 (third strongest El Niño ever) to 73-74 (strongest La Niña ever)...87-88 (moderate/strong El Niño) to 88-89 (strong La Niña) and 06-07 (moderate El Niño) to 07-08 (moderate La Niña). But none of them had the NAO/AO blocking that this season has had; we don't usually see this type of high-latitude blocking in the stronger La Niñas so we're in fairly unprecedented territory.

the key though is that 73-74 and 88-89 were both strong..... this one is moderate. I dont know how to explain the 06-07 to 07-08 switch though.

It does seem on balance though, when you go from one phase to the other, there is some remnant of the old phase still there.

By the way, whats the deal with ENSO the last few years? Why are we seeing so many la ninas and el ninos? And more moderate or strong than weak? I thought neutral and weak phases were supposed to be more common?

[SnowGoose69]

i dont understand why all of a sudden (especially the past few years) every single winter has HUGE snow storms. When was the last time we had a run of the mill 4-7" snow event that didnt involve a switch to sleet or rain? Growing up that was the norm...now it seems easier to get a 12-18" storm than a 3-6" one....

I was thinking the same thing earlier today, very wierd...of course the conspiracy theorists would argue global warming...my guess its some sort of cyclical atmosphere phenomena, who knows what...

[nzucker]

i dont understand why all of a sudden (especially the past few years) every single winter has HUGE snow storms. When was the last time we had a run of the mill 4-7" snow event that didnt involve a switch to sleet or rain? Growing up that was the norm...now it seems easier to get a 12-18" storm than a 3-6" one....

We have been remarkably fortunate with snowstorms since December 2000, but I certainly remember a lot of moderate events in the past few winters like the 2/16 event last year, the February 2008 storm, the December 2005 storm etc. The area also had a rough time in 06-07 and 07-08 generally but has been seeing high snowfall with a generous amount of MECS/HECS events since then.

[NorthShoreWx]

north shore- i started writing out a post similar to this a few hours ago but walked away from comp and never got around to posting it....i was 5 in 1978...i remember the snow but not the wind...I think this storm might have a higher impact on C and W LI than that did....probably wont be anything like 78 on E LI and SNE

I was a HS student on western LI for the '78 storm...NE Nassau. Schools were shut down for the week, the parkways took several days to open up. The damage from coastal flodding extended all the way to NYC. If this has a higher impact on western LI, it will be one hell of a doozy. It still amazes me to this day to think the 78 storm was worse 20 miles to my east.

That being said, if this thing behaves as modeled, we are going to remember it for a long time.

[A-L-E-X]

i dont understand why all of a sudden (especially the past few years) every single winter has HUGE snow storms. When was the last time we had a run of the mill 4-7" snow event that didnt involve a switch to sleet or rain? Growing up that was the norm...now it seems easier to get a 12-18" storm than a 3-6" one....

This almost seems to be a copy of the stretch from March 1960 to February 1961, except in reverse. 4 KU events in one year.... pretty much what we're having right now. We havent had too many 4-8 inchers lately-- I think last season we only had one lol. Either we have a really bad season with just one of those and a couple of 1-3 events tossed in or a really good season with just one of those but multiple 10+ events lol. Everything seems to be 1-3 or 10+ !

[A-L-E-X]

I was a HS student on western LI for the '78 storm...NE Nassau. Schools were shut down for the week, the parkways took several days to open up. The damage from coastal flodding extended all the way to NYC. If this has a higher impact on western LI, it will be one hell of a doozy. It still amazes me to this day to think the 78 storm was worse 20 miles to my east.

That being said, if this thing behaves as modeled, we are going to remember it for a long time.

I hope this thing stalls out 100 miles to our southeast as some of the modeling is predicting-- I would love to see a snowy version of Dec 92. From what youre saying thats what Feb 78 basically was.

[ace0927]

I was thinking the same thing earlier today, very wierd...of course the conspiracy theorists would argue global warming...my guess its some sort of cyclical atmosphere phenomena, who knows what...

honestly, i went thru every kocin storm dating back to 1956. only 2 had equally deep h850 lows (108dcm) and I can only assume not many more had deeper h7 lows. I am not a scientist, a matter of fact, since my junior yr of HS (1989-90) I have not sat in on a science class so I cant even fathom an answer, but the atmosphere is obviously in the process of changing. Its not like you can ever refer a non-tropical rain storm that gets that deep either....any ideas?

[Manny]

The Calm before the Storm. I can feel it already. Stay up brothers, this storm is gonna be a wild ride. Good luck out there.

12-18" looks good for the City.

[eduggs]

Why did you cross out the GFS?

I edited my post after closer inspection of GFS SLP position. They are almost identical.

[A-L-E-X]

We have been remarkably fortunate with snowstorms since December 2000, but I certainly remember a lot of moderate events in the past few winters like the 2/16 event last year, the February 2008 storm, the December 2005 storm etc. The area also had a rough time in 06-07 and 07-08 generally but has been seeing high snowfall with a generous amount of MECS/HECS events since then.

We do have at least one of them a winter, but nothing like how often they happened in the 80s and the 90s.

[ace0927]

I was a HS student on western LI for the '78 storm...NE Nassau. Schools were shut down for the week, the parkways took several days to open up. The damage from coastal flodding extended all the way to NYC. If this has a higher impact on western LI, it will be one hell of a doozy. It still amazes me to this day to think the 78 storm was worse 20 miles to my east.

That being said, if this thing behaves as modeled, we are going to remember it for a long time.

the only storm of my adult life that i can even think comes close to matching that is dec 1992...which in terms of coastal flooding was worse...w/out the snow :-(

[A-L-E-X]

honestly, i went thru every kocin storm dating back to 1956. only 2 had equally deep h850 lows (108dcm) and I can only assume not many more had deeper h7 lows. I am not a scientist, a matter of fact, since my junior yr of HS (1989-90) I have not sat in on a science class so I cant even fathom an answer, but the atmosphere is obviously in the process of changing. Its not like you can ever refer a non-tropical rain storm that gets that deep either....any ideas?

Ace, which were the two that had equally deep h850 lows?

[Kingwill]

The Calm before the Storm. I can feel it already. Stay up brothers, this storm is gonna be a wild ride. Good luck out there.

12-18" looks good for the City.

This could be one of those Crazy storms where Manhattan has like 15 and the Bronx has 20 ect.. crazy disparities where banding takes place.

[earthlight]

See this thread for all temp, precip, dew point, blizzard, whiteout OBS. This thread remains for banter/etc. Once the storm starts, you can take short term mesoscale modeling/disco into that thread as well.