A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow for the way the ECM looks I would not expect this http://www.hpc.ncep....pf/d13_fill.gif Basically, it looks like it takes 12 hours to get from ACY to MTP and deepens from 976 to 965 in that time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Both NMM and ARW absolutely crush NYC, coastal NJ, LI and SWCT. They're portraying 1.75"-over 2" of precip. Intense banding. whats the start time of the banding and heavy snow? 4 PM or so? From what I was reading it basically sounds like a 4 pm to 4 am deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Both NMM and ARW absolutely crush NYC, coastal NJ, LI and SWCT. They're portraying 1.75"-over 2" of precip. Intense banding. ill take the arw for north jersey please lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow for the way the ECM looks I would not expect this http://www.hpc.ncep....pf/d13_fill.gif at 24 hrs. gfs and euro have the low in pretty much the same spot, with the euro 5 mb lower pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 whats the start time of the banding and heavy snow? 4 PM or so? From what I was reading it basically sounds like a 4 pm to 4 am deal A little earlier then that but not much. Maybe 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Is the RUC a good model for 12-24 hour time frame with the UL dynamics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Basically, it looks like it takes 12 hours to get from ACY to MTP and deepens from 976 to 965 in that time! I am getting excited, not only for the snow but the wind. Very strong wind signal on almost all models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 ill take the arw for north jersey please lol If these 2 models are right, then all the snow records for NYC and LGA have a shot of being broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow for the way the ECM looks I would not expect this http://www.hpc.ncep....pf/d13_fill.gif Ugh, what are they basing that off of? What model shows that sharp of a western cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 at 24 hrs. gfs and euro have the low in pretty much the same spot, with the euro 5 mb lower pressure. ARW through 36 total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 If these 2 models are right, then all the snow records for NYC and LGA have a shot of being broken. The funny thing is that not one daily snowfall record may get broken but there is a slight risk the biggest storm ever could be in spots...the reason being the 12/26/47 daily record will be hard to break and many spots may not see enough snow on the 27th to break the daily record...most of which are from 1984 on the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 from greatest to least red 2-2.5 whitish blue 1.75-2 lgt orange 1.5-1.75 purple 1.25-1.5 pink 1-1.25 dark blue .75-1 lgt blue .5-.75 green .25-.5 lgt green < .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 And NMM.....either way a huge hit on these hi res models. Gonna be a great storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I just looked at the RUC and NAM BUFKIT soundings for KISP for tonight. Very strong winds just off the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Basically looks like it has us in the 1.25" realm-- qpf cuts off sharply in eastern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Ugh, what are they basing that off of? What model shows the sharp western cutoff so far east? I think the only Model remotely close to the HPC map is the GGEM---.75-1.00" for NYC. All other models have a sharp gradient, but not as sharp as the HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 No increase in precip on the euro but the low is much stronger... well that sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 tom qpf ric and xsa ric .about 5 xsa .5-.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 No increase in precip on the euro but the low is much stronger... well that sucks. Eh, don't loose all faith. You'll still get a good 2 - 4" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Ace has been on this storm for over a week now-- which is rather unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 note...the western dry cutoff is due to the really strong sfc high to the west. the precip hits that dry wall and poof!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 A little earlier then that but not much. Maybe 2pm. This is awesome Al..... watching heavy snow + high winds + football + this wx board! Life is good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I am getting excited, not only for the snow but the wind. Very strong wind signal on almost all models now. Yes, I havent seen a strong dynamical storm like this in awhile. The storms last year had this for awhile, but not as prolonged as this. This is basically a 24 hr version of March 2005! But instead of 4 inches, we might get 24 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 note...the western dry cutoff is due to the really strong sfc high to the west. the precip hits that dry wall and poof!! Get rid of that thing! Otherwise we'll have a bunch of people angry at us for getting this storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just saw that KOKX included thunder in their ZFP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 If you haven't checked it out on SACRUS tracking thread, take a look at the disagreement of the low track from the NOAA product on post #16. I think it is interesting to see such a large number of clusters right off the delmarva much further west than the low track they have favored. Just food for thought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 If these 2 models are right, then all the snow records for NYC and LGA have a shot of being broken. They seem a bit extreme, Al. We *should* get over a foot of snow, but I highly doubt that there will be widespread 2 feet plus amounts. The records for NYC, LGA, JFK and EWR are all well over two feet! I hope to live to see a thirty inch snowstorm here one day, but this storm probably isnt it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just saw that KOKX included thunder in their ZFP. I think they had this with their PM update. Not sure if it was the eve update tho. clearly they saw the MM5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 note...the western dry cutoff is due to the really strong sfc high to the west. the precip hits that dry wall and poof!! Shades of last years epic fail of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 granted its the ruc out there a ways but wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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