Manny Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 About the same precip-wise as 12z or more? Maybe with a stronger low, the NW sector of the low puts out more precip. Guess we'll have to wait for total qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 hr 30 has a sub 970 low over the tip of li.. Can we get a QPF map and hopefully it looks like more qpf because the low is stronger?? I can only pray it looks like this http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_p60_060m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 sub 980 about 100-125 miles east of ac...same as 12z...but the low is a lot stronger Tombo, could you give some info on the Euro run on the hours before that? That would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Maybe with a stronger low, the NW sector of the low puts out more precip. Guess we'll have to wait for total qpf. Looks like NYC gets about 1.40" qpf. Matches GFS and NAM well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wasn't that what Heavy Snow Warnings used to be for? Ive always thought they should have an intense snowstorm warning beyond winter storm warning (which is only 6" plus) because WSW just seems too mundane for a thing like this. Over 10 inches of snow in 24 hours or over 20 inches in 48 hours should be the qualifiers for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Does anyone have buoy soundings from off of coast of GA and SC or a link to them? That should be good info right? http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Southeast.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'll still take a Nino any day over a Nina. The reason being so much more moisture available to developing storms, and the track pushed far enough south to really give us a shot at being snow vs. rain from the cutters we so often see in Ninas. 50 more miles on 2/6 last year and you and I would have easily exceeded 60" on the winter. I'm thinking this storm is the pinnacle of the winter; it's hard for me to see this pattern lasting into Jan and Feb. Eventually the cutters and SW flow storms will return. It just has to in a Nina as strong as this. We should get some blocking back later on and we might get a great march like we did in 1956. There already seems to be a signal for a return to blocking in like 10-15 days. Weak la ninas after el ninos seem to be a totally different beast though. As SG said it seems like when you have a weak la nina after an el nino you get the best of both worlds-- you get the moisture signal of an el nino (which we actually have had this season-- look at whats going on in Cali) plus the cold signal and arctic shots of the la nina. It would make for an interesting case study lol. The only thing missing from last winter was the extremely cold arctic air for a sustained period of time and if we had been able to keep this thing at weak this winter, maybe we could have had a 95-96 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 100-125 miles east? Isnt that a bit too far east of where we want it? I thought "ideal" would be like 50 miles east of ACY and then stall. Alex this looks near perfect to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Light snow here now @ 27 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Tombo, could you give some info on the Euro run on the hours before that? That would be great. do you just want the qpf for your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks like NYC gets about 1.40" qpf. Matches GFS and NAM well. That's def more than 12z. Since it put down 1" to 1.25 for the City. NAM/GFS are obviously more, but the Euro does match up closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 do you just want the qpf for your area? Tom could you give me TTN? I need to step away from the computer for a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hey Tombo - on my ipad in bed, could you give the QPF value for ABE pleasE? Much thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Total 00Z JMA precip. in the 1.25"-1.5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Can we get a QPF map and hopefully it looks like more qpf because the low is stronger?? I can only pray it looks like this http://cimss.ssec.wi...na_p60_060m.gif no its doesnt, the cutoff/gradient is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wasn't that what Heavy Snow Warnings used to be for? I believe so, but theyre not around anymore After the Jan 2008 bust, its probably just as well lol. What I dont understand is, was that storm ever progged to give us 10 inches of snow in 24 hours? I thought it was supposed to be a 4-8 inch type of event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow lower me like dc Balt really get shafted on this even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Euro just came in a good bit wetter than it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Tom could you give me TTN? I need to step away from the computer for a bit... Maybe he'll do a map - then everyone will know. The DC/Bal people say it doesn't look good down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 do you just want the qpf for your area? Where was the low relative to ORF and Hatteras and what were the pressure readings? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 lol ill just do a map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow lower me like dc Balt really get shafted on this even more HPC went very tight with the western gradient on the Day One QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Euro just came in a good bit wetter than it's 12z run. Hey John would you mind pulling up the precip totals for some key areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 lol ill just do a map... I'll be back later then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twodogs Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 tom qpf ric and xsa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 My ratios actually weren't great in 96. As Bill G mentioned, too much wind. Had 2.14" water for 24.2" snow... just a bit over 11:1 ratio Isnt it pretty hard to get really good ratios when you have a high amount of snow? I dont know what our ratios were here in PD2, but our "ratio champ" was probably Jan 2004, when we had 40:1 ratios with about a foot of snow. I remember reading somewhere that LGA ratio was like 80:1-- that sounds erroneous lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 HPC went very tight with the western gradient on the Day One QPF. What's causing this shaft? The low doesnt seem any further east. On the contrary, maybe a bit further west, since it goes right over Montauk Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Euro just came in a good bit wetter than it's 12z run. Did the euro have the low slowing or stalling off the south jersey shore like the gfs did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow for the way the ECM looks I would not expect this http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Both NMM and ARW absolutely crush NYC, coastal NJ, LI and SWCT. They're portraying 1.75"-over 2" of precip. Intense banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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