NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

[NJwinter23]

I'm sure the blizzard warnings will fly out of mt holly by morning. They've waited to issue those last minute in the past, and with the warnings out of okx it's not like residents of monmouth or ocean county who watched the news tonight will be surprised. This is going to be insane

[A-L-E-X]

Considering this is a Sunday with NFL games on, you will be lucky to see anyone on TV today relaying info. about this storm.

Looks like the models have trended upward in qpf for us and the media outlets have responded in kind. 1.75" qpf expected and ABC is now going for 12-18" with some areas getting up to 20"

[JTA66]

Yes sir.

The way they word things sometimes.

I think it's time to watch the WV loops and radar. Hope everyone cashes in on this one!

[A-L-E-X]

I'm sure the blizzard warnings will fly out of mt holly by morning. They've waited to issue those last minute in the past, and with the warnings out of okx it's not like residents of monmouth or ocean county who watched the news tonight will be surprised. This is going to be insane

What is with that precip maximum on all the models on the Jersey shore in those counties? Theyve had the same qpf max in the exact same spot for over 24 hours now lol. Im actually about 5-10 miles due north of that max-- if it happens.

[famartin]

I know a meteorologist who named his daughter Helicity

Seriously? You're not ****ting us? If not, that's just TOO funny

[NorthNJwx]

Whats interesting is Upton is usually more conservative and takes longer to issue WSW's compared to Mt Holly. But they seem to issue blizzard warnings much earlier. Seems unlikely that Union county where I am gets higher winds than Monmouth/Ocean, or perhaps the snow is wetter near the shore so the visibility isn't as low?

I've thought about that too. I think ultimately it might be a case of differences between the offices regarding which product is appropriate in which situation, but there are some other factors at play. Wetter snow could certainly be one factor. I think it's possible that the coastal location and proximity to large amounts of water might cut down on the impact of blowing snow, simply because there is less land for snow to accumulate and blow on (at a barrier island, for example, being surrounded by water means that the wind is typically blowing from a direction with open water, be it the ocean or a back bay, and thus there is no snow to pick up and reduce visibility further). Those are just a couple guesses, though. Monmouth/Ocean are showing gusts to 60 in the zone forecast.

[goldstar]

FWIW here is the CRAS http://cimss.ssec.wi...na_p60_060m.gif

[SnowGoose69]

Seriously? You're not ****ting us? If not, that's just TOO funny

Yeah, its for real.

[am19psu]

Seriously? You're not ****ting us? If not, that's just TOO funny

OT: I know one that named his son Rossby

[patrick05]

Whats interesting is Upton is usually more conservative and takes longer to issue WSW's compared to Mt Holly. But they seem to issue blizzard warnings much earlier. Seems unlikely that Union county where I am gets higher winds than Monmouth/Ocean, or perhaps the snow is wetter near the shore so the visibility isn't as low?

actually, IIRC, OKX issued blizzard warnings as their first warnings before the 12/19 storm... unlike today where they issued a WS watch first before issuing a BW...

[NJwinter23]

Don't forget that 96 also had a pretty brutal high pressure. Lows were in the single digits the morning before it started.

True Ray the ratios were unbelievable...Though they should be pretty top notch with this storm too, aside from the wind factor muting that a bit

[LocoAko]

OT: I know one that named his son Rossby

I had a friend who's brother was named CPrime (cee-prime), out of a calculus book. No joke.

Okay, back on topic!

[rgwp96]

I've thought about that too. I think ultimately it might be a case of differences between the offices regarding which product is appropriate in which situation, but there are some other factors at play. Wetter snow could certainly be one factor. I think it's possible that the coastal location and proximity to large amounts of water might cut down on the impact of blowing snow, simply because there is less land for snow to accumulate and blow on (at a barrier island, for example, being surrounded by water means that the wind is typically blowing from a direction with open water, be it the ocean or a back bay, and thus there is no snow to pick up and reduce visibility). Those are just a couple guesses, though. Monmouth/Ocean are showing gusts to 60 in the zone forecast.

mt holly doesnt seem to give their inland counties blizzard warnings to often.  I really wish they would sometimes just so i dont  have to explain it 100 times that all a blizzard means is wind and not more snow.  I live 500 ft from western passaic county and they have one lol

[ravensrule]

FWIW here is the CRAS http://cimss.ssec.wi...na_p60_060m.gif

CRAS FTW , JK guys i hope you get nailed. After last winter i can deal with only 6 inches.

[A-L-E-X]

96 was a weak la nina indeed. It was just further west basically...further west when everything closed off at 500mb that is and this allowed the overunning to flood northward and occur as the surface low crawled north. I wouldnt say that there is anything really missing to get those totals in SOME areas, but just not widspread like 96 was (because of that overunning leading to more precip/longer duration).

weak la ninas after el ninos are my favorite enso for our area-- they are good for extreme weather of all kinds, including severe weather, scorching hot summers and brutally cold and snowy winters (if not brutally cold, at least they are prone to big snowstorms.) Three cases in point are 1966-67, 1995-96 and 2005-6 All of those years had scorchingly hot and dry summers, followed by either snowy and cold winters or at least one big high end snowstorm to make the winter end up well above normal in snowfall.

[A-L-E-X]

Don't forget that 96 also had a pretty brutal high pressure. Lows were in the single digits the morning before it started.

Saranac Lake was positively frigid that morning-- but they didnt get the snow we did

PD2 started off with a cold dome of high pressure too.

I would have loved to experienced something like Feb 1961 which started at -2 I think and slowly warmed up through the storm and still brought down over two feet of snow here.

[tombo82685]

Euro!?!

sub 980 about 100-125 miles east of ac...same as 12z...but the low is a lot stronger

[F5TornadoF5]

[mattinpa]

sub 980 about 100-125 miles east of ac...same as 12z...but the low is a lot stronger

About the same precip-wise as 12z or more?

[gkrangers]

sub 980 about 100-125 miles east of ac...same as 12z...but the low is a lot stronger

Perfect.

[NorthNJwx]

mt holly doesnt seem to give their inland counties blizzard warnings to often. I really wish they would sometimes just so i dont have to explain it 100 times that all a blizzard means is wind and not more snow. I live 500 ft from western passaic county and they have one lol

I've noticed it too in each of the blizzard warnings we've had here in Bergen (in the past decade, I think that would just be Feb 03, Jan 05 and Feb 06). That said, they haven't verified in my part of the county, I'm not sure about the SE portion...but it would be extremely hard to verify here anyway. In reality I think it's just damn tough to verify a blizzard warning in Western Passaic or Western Bergen (which was split from Eastern Bergen earlier this month), but I suppose it's possible. I think I might see brief/occasional blizzard conditions on my weather station during this storm, but a sustained blizzard is way beyond. Maybe on top of that 1400 ft ridge in West Milford?

[A-L-E-X]

mt holly doesnt seem to give their inland counties blizzard warnings to often. I really wish they would sometimes just so i dont have to explain it 100 times that all a blizzard means is wind and not more snow. I live 500 ft from western passaic county and they have one lol

Ive always thought they should have an intense snowstorm warning beyond winter storm warning (which is only 6" plus) because WSW just seems too mundane for a thing like this.

Over 10 inches of snow in 24 hours or over 20 inches in 48 hours should be the qualifiers for that.

[JTA66]

sub 980 about 100-125 miles east of ac...same as 12z...but the low is a lot stronger

What hour Tom, 12?

[jm1220]

weak la ninas after el ninos are my favorite enso for our area-- they are good for extreme weather of all kinds, including severe weather, scorching hot summers and brutally cold and snowy winters (if not brutally cold, at least they are prone to big snowstorms.) Three cases in point are 1966-67, 1995-96 and 2005-6 All of those years had scorchingly hot and dry summers, followed by either snowy and cold winters or at least one big high end snowstorm to make the winter end up well above normal in snowfall.

I'll still take a Nino any day over a Nina. The reason being so much more moisture available to developing storms, and the track pushed far enough south to really give us a shot at being snow vs. rain from the cutters we so often see in Ninas. 50 more miles on 2/6 last year and you and I would have easily exceeded 60" on the winter. I'm thinking this storm is the pinnacle of the winter; it's hard for me to see this pattern lasting into Jan and Feb. Eventually the cutters and SW flow storms will return. It just has to in a Nina as strong as this.

[goldstar]

Does anyone have buoy soundings from off of coast of GA and SC or a link to them? That should be good info right?

[ag3]

Euro has about 1.40" qpf for NYC, a friend texted me.

[tombo82685]

hr 30 has a sub 970 low over the tip of li..

[tombo82685]

What hour Tom, 12?

hr 18, sorry forgot that part lol

[A-L-E-X]

Perfect.

100-125 miles east? Isnt that a bit too far east of where we want it? I thought "ideal" would be like 50 miles east of ACY and then stall.

[famartin]

True Ray the ratios were unbelievable...Though they should be pretty top notch with this storm too, aside from the wind factor muting that a bit

My ratios actually weren't great in 96. As Bill G mentioned, too much wind. Had 2.14" water for 24.2" snow... just a bit over 11:1 ratio