NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

[Voyager]

Serious question here. What causes the tongue of lighter qpf in the area I have circled on the map? I've noticed this feature on nearly every single qpf model map. Does topography have something to do with it?

[tmagan]

heres the the ruc at 18hr, seems to be pretty far west of guidance, but than again it ruc at 18, like the nam at 84

Remember with the last storm, the RUC at 18 hours indicated snow over the entire OKX CWA, obviously that didn't materialize.

[SnowGoose69]

You'll have to excuse my ignorance, but '96 was a weak La Nina, correct? I'm not entirely certain on the difference between the setup of '96 and now other than we had that large comma head which gave us a lot of "lead" snow before the comma-head low took over. What allowed for the WAA overrunning event? Those situations, including PDII, always seem to be our best in the PHL area. What are we missing to get those snows? A stronger STJ influence?

96 there was a nasty initial blast from the SE from noon-5pm...at some points there were isolated spots snowing a bit over 4" per hour in that period with CGs reported frequently in the Monmouth County/Staten Island region during the mid afternoon....thereafter a dryslot did not necessarily form but there was a re-organization to the precip shield from 6pm-midnight or so before the intense bands reformed, mainly over W and C NJ west of NYC/LGA

[Snow_Miser]

NAM and GFS both show 12-15" of snow! Awesome! Well... 5 post limit... so this is my last post for today

[Guest Patrick]

I think this might help to answer your question:

Serious question here. What causes the tongue of lighter qpf in the area I have circled on the map? I've noticed this feature on nearly every single qpf model map. Does topography have something to do with it?

[NJwinter23]

You'll have to excuse my ignorance, but '96 was a weak La Nina, correct? I'm not entirely certain on the difference between the setup of '96 and now other than we had that large comma head which gave us a lot of "lead" snow before the comma-head low took over. What allowed for the WAA overrunning event? Those situations, including PDII, always seem to be our best in the PHL area. What are we missing to get those snows? A stronger STJ influence?

96 was a weak la nina indeed. It was just further west basically...further west when everything closed off at 500mb that is and this allowed the overunning to flood northward and occur as the surface low crawled north. I wouldnt say that there is anything really missing to get those totals in SOME areas, but just not widspread like 96 was (because of that overunning leading to more precip/longer duration).

[Bluescat1]

No offense taken, especially when you're not even talking about our coverage area. I do think I may not have trimmed the west side enough, like one of the earlier posters said.

It's a pleasure to be able to see this forum (I thought all was lost when Eastern disappeared...why didn't anyone tell me about you guys sooner).

As was the case in last year's storms, I trust snowfall reports from you dedicated weather fanatics more than those from the general public. I will be putting some of your reports on-air during our coverage Sunday, and plan to give credit to American.

If anyone wants to contact me directly, you can e-mail me at [email protected]

Glenn

I was looking for a contact for you on the NBC 10 site, but I must have overlooked it.

[LocoAko]

This is Farmingdale NJ in se Monmouth County on 00z gfs. Winds tail off on these soundings as you head inland but holy moly, still incredibly bullish on these wind gusts in coastal counties and long island...JFK 00z bufkit hasn't loaded in yet, but was showing 59kt at the surface 11PM tmrw nightt on 18z

Great minds thinks alike.

Again, for KISP, just from a quick count, the 10m winds are at or above 35kts starting at 7PM tomorrow and through the duration of the rest of the storm. Pretty awesome.

(Just a quick - checking 10m Winds/2m T and 'Momentum Transfer' is the correct way to calculate the surface winds through the mixed layer near the surface, correct?)

[tombo82685]

Remember with the last storm, the RUC at 18 hours indicated snow over the entire OKX CWA, obviously that didn't materialize.

yea thats why i said the 18 hr is like the 84hr nam

[Boreal]

Serious question here. What causes the tongue of lighter qpf in the area I have circled on the map? I've noticed this feature on nearly every single qpf model map. Does topography have something to do with it?

I've noticed that as well. I wonder if it has to do with the frontogenetic forcing taking place to the east where the relatively higher elevations NW NJ are squeezing out some mongo totals.

[joey]

Do you think that could perhaps leave an area of subsidence in Long Island? That's actually something I'm fearing, and it's what essentially happened in 2/12/06. I'm in western LI, though, so I hope I'm far enough west to be near/in the banding and avoid the area of subsidence, but I am afraid that there will be an area of subsidence somewhere on LI, considering the frontogenic signals near NYC.

Fortunately, this storm seems to have a different component of movement than 2/12/06, so I don't think LI would get as "screwed" over as they did then, but I can't help thinking about it.

Very much agree- however, if the NAM is correct. the band will be moving from East to West. So I'm not totally worried.

[SmokeEater]

Now snowing lightly in Folsom, Western Atlantic County.

[NJwinter23]

96 there was a nasty initial blast from the SE from noon-5pm...at some points there were isolated spots snowing a bit over 4" per hour in that period with CGs reported frequently in the Monmouth County/Staten Island region during the mid afternoon....thereafter a dryslot did not necessarily form but there was a re-organization to the precip shield from 6pm-midnight or so before the intense bands reformed, mainly over W and C NJ west of NYC/LGA

God man as much as I remember this storm as an 8 year old, and it is my holy grail storm, I cannot recall the frequent CG part happening at all. Dissapoints me. I honstly cannot recall seeing any thundersnow event in my entire life as a matter a fact..EXCEPT, I'm almost positive I woke up to a crack of thunder at 7AM-8AM on 12/30/2000. It appears radar would have supported that..

[NittanyWx]

With this set up, Long Island is going to remember this storm for decades.

[Chris L]

NJwinter23, I think if this had some overrunning snows; that put down 3 to 6 inches like the 96 blizzard did, then this storm would likely be its rival to it. But I do agree that this is not going to be as nearly as widespread for sure.

[ace0927]

With this set up, Long Island is going to remember this storm for decades...especially if these winds verify.

Nittany- I sure hope so!

for everyone's viewing pleasure

[earthlight]

[ptb127]

Light snow falling in Hazleton, PA.

Nothing major but still very light and starting to make the blacktop twinkle a little.

[ptb127]

Does any pro met think the precip shield wll extend that far west??

Nittany- I sure hope so!

for everyone's viewing pleasure

[earthlight]

12:15am Dec 26 2010

[jm1220]

Do you think that could perhaps leave an area of subsidence in Long Island? That's actually something I'm fearing, and it's what essentially happened in 2/12/06. I'm in western LI, though, so I hope I'm far enough west to be near/in the banding and avoid the area of subsidence, but I am afraid that there will be an area of subsidence somewhere on LI, considering the frontogenic signals near NYC.

Fortunately, this storm seems to have a different component of movement than 2/12/06, so I don't think LI would get as "screwed" over as they did then, but I can't help thinking about it.

That's a fear of mine also, although I think off the bat we have about as beneficial odds as anybody. I think that the further east models like the RGEM would actually be beneficial for us because N NJ gets less, and the banding is therefore shifted east towards us. I don't see how we don't get less than a foot out of all this given how explosively the low deepens just off S NJ, and situations like 2/12/06 are about the most extreme in terms of band/subsidence/band. 3/1/09 which had a gravity wave form was much more uniform than that, as was 12/19 last year.

I think that regardless of the banding, the WIND is going to be as memorable as the snow. There could be insane drifting that occurs, and this is what really shuts places down, not to mention the power line/tree damage threat. In some of the bands there's a strong signal for 50+ mph wind mixing down, which would produce a complete white out.

[earthlight]

Does any pro met think the precip shield wll extend that far west??

Not a pro met, but I would urge caution against taking the GEFS mean verbatim especially on the fringes of precipitation and/or gradients. The resolution of the ensemble mean is less of the operational and shouldn't be used in that regard.

[Sock Puppet]

Radar seems to be filling in over LI and NYC. Anything falling there?

[David Reimer]

Ocean City, NJ has a covering of snow at the moment.

Live camera: http://7thstreetsurfshop.com/8highspeed.htm

[tmagan]

Radar seems to be filling in over LI and NYC. Anything falling there?

Nope

[NJwinter23]

Great minds thinks alike.

Again, for KISP, just from a quick count, the 10m winds are at or above 35kts starting at 7PM tomorrow and through the duration of the rest of the storm. Pretty awesome.

(Just a quick - checking 10m Winds/2m T and 'Momentum Transfer' is the correct way to calculate the surface winds through the mixed layer near the surface, correct?)

Sounds about right man. Momentum transfer I use a lot just because without anymore thought it points out the gusts at top and bottom of a highlighted mixed layer. Great for forecasting wind gusts in the boundary layer on a sunny day. I like what you posted better though for a storm focusing on the sounding and the layer where it is more adiabatic.

[Bobby]

Amazing to watch the trough dive down through the central US with the dry air ahead of it and the ridge spinning up over the top out west. Very cool!

[yankeex777]

Based on the recent modeling his 6-12" area is too far west. Maybe he didn't get the chance to fix his map, who knows.

He actually posted here saying he went particularly bullish for that area, mostly because of better ratios and he mentioned he always busted too low in that area in the past so hes 'sticking his neck out' so to speak. Theres a post earlier in here where he explained.

[earthlight]

You can see the banding signature on the 1"/hr probabilities on tonight's SREF mean. The MM5 agrees in the deformation area developing over the 70% area of the SREF or maybe a hair east of there.

[am19psu]

Not a pro met, but I would urge caution against taking the GEFS mean verbatim especially on the fringes of precipitation and/or gradients. The resolution of the ensemble mean is less of the operational and shouldn't be used in that regard.

Agree, but what is troubling about the GEFS ensemble mean?