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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8


NickD2011

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The only thing I'd watch is if that band sort of steals the show. Even though models have a large area of 1"+ qpf, it can't necessarily take into account mesoscale things. Basically those that are in the band get crushed, and those that aren't may end up getting less snow than they thought. Not saying it will happen..just something to watch.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

214 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

NJZ012-015>019-262115-

MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...

GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY

214 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS

OF NEW JERSEY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...

LOOK FOR A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TO MOVE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND

WESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY THROUGH 500 PM. IN THIS BAND...

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. AS WINDS

INCREASE...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...COMBINED WITH FALLING

SNOW...MAY CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

LOOK FOR BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE OCEAN THROUGH THE

EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE TIMES WHEN THE SNOW MAY LIGHTEN UP

BEFORE THE NEXT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ROTATES IN FROM THE OCEAN.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DURING THE

AFTERNOON.

$$

HAYES

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The only thing I'd watch is if that band sort of steals the show. Even though models have a large area of 1"+ qpf, it can't necessarily take into account mesoscale things. Basically those that are in the band get crushed, and those that aren't may end up getting less snow than they thought. Not saying it will happen..just something to watch.

Yup, we've seen it before. March 09 was a mega-bust at my house as I sat in subsidence on the east side of a deformation band and had light snow the entire event.

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Nate, I only had 4.5" from March 09....

Wow that's pretty crappy.

08-09 was a good winter here with 8" on 12/19 and 10" on 3/2 as well as the January arctic outbreak and several SW flow events during that frigid month. Overall a very solid winter for Dobbs Ferry. Of course, I tend to do better than some on here because I live at 350' elevation in a wooded area.

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I should probably correct what I said...I wouldn't want to be right under it but I would want to be right next to it. That's where you will get the best lift.

That is what I think is most likely to happen here (stay on the good side).. But from here east, we really may be threading the needle on that.

Some good banding setting up locally, but the radar signatures look at the moment like eastern NJ - NYC may be in line for the best stuff for the next couple of hours/ We have 2" on the ground as of 2PM and the temp is down slightly to 28. Wind has increased to the point where you can hear the roar in the trees. I don't have an anemometer, but its definitely gusting past 30.

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That's literally getting the looks a frontogenic band from Delaware to New York City pivoting west.

very similar to RUC runs this morning...we might literally see this band effect the entire state.

also on IR...notice the southern end of enhanced tops down by VA/NC border...has slowed down not moving east...I think the real pivot is starting.

finally..check out the KDIX echoes in western ocean county and SE third of Burlington...woof...

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