earthlight Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Heckofa dry slot too. Someone is going to be affected by that. Yeah, this is coming a little bit west of what the 12z models were showing already. I don't think anybody in our area has serious dry slot issues yet...but if I were on Montauk I might be watching carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Heckofa dry slot too. Someone is going to be affected by that. You're looking at the mid levels of the atm. That's the subsidence from the jet. It's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wrong. The GFS and Euro both have the resolution to pick up deformation bands. Your statement was true 5 years ago. am19psu- Any thoughts on increasing/decreasing chances of deformation banding in PHIL/eastern 'burbs, based on latest data/trending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 SPF WRF at 22z...lord Later in the night..deform still over NYC http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/refc_f15.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Someone should save the WV loop for one of those threads where someone asks, "What does phasing look like?" This is what it looks like. Amazingly, of the set of big storms in this decade, PDII to now, this is shaping up to be potentially the best, with lots of snow AND wind, no temp/mixing issues, and nice daytime timing for the first leg, at least. It's sort of an embarrassment of riches that we can start to grade between better and worse blizzards, but this one is really the complete package. If we're about to embark on another decade-long drought like post 1983, this isn't a bad way to go out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 1st flakes about 15 min.'s ago,now a steady light snow @21.4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 SPF WRF at 22z...lord How does the SPC-WRF do in winter storms? Never really payed attention to it in the winter but it does an amazing job in the summer...but this is totally different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 IS this in Inches? SPF WRF at 22z...lord Later in the night..deform still over NYC http://www.emc.ncep....12/refc_f15.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 am19psu- Any thoughts on increasing/decreasing chances of deformation banding in PHIL/eastern 'burbs, based on latest data/trending? Wherever the deformation band sets up is going to get crushed. My guess is that it will be from C NJ north through NYC then across CT, but I've never made a skillful mesoscale forecast. It's just not what I'm good at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah, this is coming a little bit west of what the 12z models were showing already. I don't think anybody in our area has serious dry slot issues yet...but if I were on Montauk I might be watching carefully. Yeah, I don't think its us, but with the storm tucked tight to the coast, some areas to the east could see lighter qpf. I edited the post to clarify maybe MTP to the cape. Believe me...I'm more up for this one than I was for some of the other recent biggies. I've had very high expectations since Friday...pulled the trigger early for friends and family (more than a foot, 'B' word)...although I really had my doubts before Friday. Its the winds I'm really waiting for...this should be the best we've seen since '78. We've already jumped to the next level ...from snow blowing off of roofs to curls of snow blowing along the street. I'll be offline this afternoon because I'm going out...not going to watch the whole thing on a monitor Cameras will be in tow. The bluffs on the sound a copuple of miles from here are always a great place for some video in a blizzard. Side note: being on LI, we have to deal with lots of changeovers...but one of the compensating factors is the winds we get in these beasts. That and some enhancement almost makes it all worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 IS this in Inches? I believe that is simulated radar in dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 IS this in Inches? It's in dbz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 this will be a general 12-16 or 12-18..with isolated amts over 20" We might be one of those isolated spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You're looking at the mid levels of the atm. That's the subsidence from the jet. It's a good thing. You are probably right. Weenie mistake on my part (hangs head in shame since I don't really like that term). But there will be a dry slot somewhere to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Basically, it breaks big beautiful dendrites into fragments both in the air and blowing along the ground. If you've ever shoveled through a drift you'll recall that it is denser than where it lies flat. yes, good point. it makes sense thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah, I don't think its us, but with the storm tuckied tight to the coast, some areas to the east could see lighter qpf. I edited the post to clarify maybe MTP to the cape. Believe me...I'm more up for this one than I was for some of the other recent biggies. I've had very high expectations since Friday...pulled the trigger early for friends and family (more than a foot, 'B' word)...although I really had my doubts before Friday. Its the winds I'm really waiting for...this should be the best we've seen since '78. We've already jumped to the next level ...from snow blowing off of roofs to curls of snow blowing along the street. I'll be offline this afternoon because I'm going out...not going to watch the whole thing on a monitor Cameras will be in tow. The bluffs on the sound a copuple of miles from here are always a great place for some video in a blizzard. Side note: being on LI, we have to deal with lots of changeovers...but one of the compensating factors is the winds we get in these beasts. That and some enhancement almost makes it all worthwhile. How were your winds in Jan 1996? I consider that my windiest-- so far. The snowstorms last winter were very windy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Empire state building camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 How were your winds in Jan 1996? I consider that my windiest-- so far. The snowstorms last winter were very windy too. My father and Uncle claim that JAN 1996 blizzard is the windest snowstorm still after all these years... Let hope we can do better than that in the wind department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow, Upton is really going nuts for my location. I don't think I've seen this before. This Afternoon: Snow and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 27. Blustery, with a north wind between 18 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tonight: Snow and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 19. Windy, with a north wind between 24 and 26 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The first really heavy band is getting its act together just off the beach (starting to affect us, snow rates are increasing dramatically here in Long Beach), and should pivot in very shortly and continue to intensify. Winds are also picking up now, likely some 25 mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Ace- here comes a powerful band: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.224&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=10&lat=40.83667374&lon=-74.10268402&label=East%20Rutherford,%20NJ&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.224¢erx=190¢ery=619&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wherever the deformation band sets up is going to get crushed. My guess is that it will be from C NJ north through NYC then across CT, but I've never made a skillful mesoscale forecast. It's just not what I'm good at. Appreciate your time in answering a newb. Heaviest intensity of day in Haddon Heights, Camden County. Hoping to show my son what a "deformation band" can put down. He missed the biggies last year. I can NOT believe we are so lucky to see this type storm again this next year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Deformation banding is expanding dramatically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 That's literally getting the looks a frontogenic band from Delaware to New York City pivoting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow, Upton is really going nuts for my location. I don't think I've seen this before. This Afternoon: Snow and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 27. Blustery, with a north wind between 18 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tonight: Snow and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 19. Windy, with a north wind between 24 and 26 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. they got 15-25" for my totals...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 of the set of big storms in this decade, PDII to now, this is shaping up to be potentially the best The strong signal for a 970ish low significantly to our south is something none of the others had in common. They usually blow up like that after passing to the northeast and we get a significant % of snowfall from overrunning before the low gets cranking. Mainly commahead / deformation snows with sick winds will be the story this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Snow will pick up for LI and all of NYC in the next 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 We might be one of those isolated spots starting to worry abt the dry slot...i think the RUC shows it getting this far west (but im a worrier) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Crazy snow band setting up right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 aren't you in Middlesex? Mt holly hasn't updated in a while. They're also too high on the temps, going for highs of 32-33 in Somerset/Middlesex county is absurd they got 15-25" for my totals...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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