Stormlover74 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Me either, and Jan 96 had some good winds. Would we have had even more?? hmm....so high winds cut down snow ratios? never knew that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Snow definitely picking up in intensity here in Dix Hills, NY... Approaching 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Upton has my local totals at 15-25" This is going to get crazy ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This is going to imply 20 to 30 inches of snow for local spots... Wow at the NW NJ Bullseye right over me! I believe this model does take terrain into effect and that is a higher terrian area! Wonder if that will be close to accurete? It does cover West Milford so .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Good luck to everyone! I have a couple of questions. Where is the storm currently located? I heard it wad forming off of OBX. Most indications are that li, nyc, and eastern Nj will bear the brunt of the storm, but with the storm still a good distance away there is still a chance it could move more west giving heavier snow to different locations. Seems like most think this is a certain track. 25-50 miles could make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 i doubt it...the precip is actually lower than previous runs This is going to imply 20 to 30 inches of snow for local spots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Was out on the road picking up a pizza pie and the roads are bad the snow is more powdery than I thought and the winds were already strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 i doubt it...the precip is actually lower than previous runs First rule of accumulation forecasting is to cut Chris L totals by about 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 First rule of accumulation forecasting is to cut Chris L totals by about 50%. :lol: I love this... Fair enough. how does 1 to 2 feet sound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Im actually going with Chris L's 20-30" ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Im actually going with Chris L's 20-30" ! I didn't exactly forecast that, all I said was just the ARW is very wet and it has the potential to put those amounts somwhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 First rule of accumulation forecasting is to cut Chris L totals by about 50%. Well NWS is also saying the same thing as him this time around Forecasting around 12-24 around the tri-state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Within 5-7 hours things are going to get really going. The RUC has been very consistently bringing the very heavy deformation abnd back west towards Central/Northeast New Jersey...New York City Long Island..Southeast New York..and Connecticut. Heavy snow, insane frontogenic forcing...this band should have it all. Snow rates of 1-2"/hr should be widespread with the winds really kicking up once this gets onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesny Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Im actually going with Chris L's 20-30" ! I believe Hurricane Schwartz's forecast was for 20"+ around the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Anyone using the models now, SHOULDN'T except maybe the very short term models like the RUC although even it has trouble sometimes, but using the Euro, the NAM, or the GFS at this time is pretty much pointless considering the storm is ongoing right now. Watching the radar is really the best thing anyone can do and keep your fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I didn't exactly forecast that, all I said was just the ARW is very wet and it has the potential to put those amounts somwhere. That's alright.. I know how you are...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Congrats to you guys. Enjoy your snow. We are getting pay backs for last years incredible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 John, do you see the possibly of a February 2006 styled band popping up somewhere in the local area? The dynamics are certainly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 hmm....so high winds cut down snow ratios? never knew that. Basically, it breaks big beautiful dendrites into fragments both in the air and blowing along the ground. If you've ever shoveled through a drift you'll recall that it is denser than where it lies flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 winds are already kicking here in southern queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Anyone using the models now, SHOULDN'T except maybe the very short term models like the RUC although even it has trouble sometimes, but using the Euro, the NAM, or the GFS at this time is pretty much pointless considering the storm is ongoing right now. Watching the radar is really the best thing anyone can do and keep your fingers crossed. Wrong. The GFS and Euro both have the resolution to pick up deformation bands. Your statement was true 5 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 John, do you see the possibly of a February 2006 styled band popping up somewhere in the local area? The dynamics are certainly there. It's possible. But I'm not sure we have the atmospheric setup to stall the band as well as we did in February 2006. With a surface low getting captured like this it's actually possible that the band keeps pushing northwest, and then suddenly gets hooked back east/northeast as the surface low begins moving northeast. Then again, the deformation signal is through the roof. So for all we know, the deformation banding could be wider than that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 One of the most amazing satellite images I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Dis sho am looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 One of the most amazing satellite images I have ever seen. that eerily reminds me of the 93' superstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I believe Hurricane Schwartz's forecast was for 20"+ around the metro area. I think even he said that's pretty broad-brushed because its outside his viewing area. OTOH, OKX is going for around 20" for just about all of NYC/LI now (except the east end). Cutchogue may only have a foot due to mixing, but Orient will miraculously report 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 :lol: I love this... Fair enough. how does 1 to 2 feet sound? this will be a general 12-16 or 12-18..with isolated amts over 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 i just looked at the radar down south wow you guys are going to get smoked not surprising at all to see places that are going to exceed 2 feet with the wind, looks to be one of the worst storm to ever hit the tristate region. man i wish i was back in nyc right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 One of the most amazing satellite images I have ever seen. Heckofa dry slot too. Someone is going to be affected by that. Edit: probably east...but its for real. Maybe MTP - ACK or even HYA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 One of the most amazing satellite images I have ever seen. That looks like a triple phaser to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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