NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

[tmagan]

1996 did.

Yeah, I just looked in the KU book and that was the case, but this wont be Jan. 1996.

[SnowGoose69]

KACY reporting light snow as of 11pm

Same time they started snowing on 12/19 last year, this time though it makes it here before 1pm

[nzucker]

I have been in Putnam County in SENY for the majority of the past 30 years and have NEVER seen a 20" storm (albeit at a very low elevation). Mar93, Jan96, Dec00, Feb03, Dec03, and Feb09 were all very close, but none exceeded this threshold. The situation above 500 feet is different - for example there was well in excess of 24" last Feb in the highlands. Regardless, widespread 20" accumulations is a very bold call. It will probably bust.

Personally I think a late developing, intense, cold storm will produce very high ISOLATED totals. I would expect widespread accumulations in that range would require a broader, longer duration storm, with more moisture and more frontside overrunning.

Wow, you've been unlucky, but of course it's generally the people immediately on the coast who jackpot in these situations. I've had three 20" storms in Westchester (born in 1988): January 1996, February 2006, and February 25, 2010. I do live at 350' in a wooded area far from the Hudson River, though.

And I agree with your sentiment about the isolated totals of 20-25"...I'm pretty sure some places will get that under the best deformation banding, but I question whether we can approach a widespread 20" event with QPF only shown around 1.5". I could see a lot of people getting 16-18"...

[NJwinter23]

I have been in Putnam County in SENY for the majority of the past 30 years and have NEVER seen a 20" storm (albeit at a very low elevation). Mar93, Jan96, Dec00, Feb03, Dec03, and Feb09 were all very close, but none exceeded this threshold. The situation above 500 feet is different - for example there was well in excess of 24" last Feb in the highlands. Regardless, widespread 20" accumulations is a very bold call. It will probably bust.

Personally I think a late developing, intense, cold storm will produce very high ISOLATED totals. I would expect widespread accumulations in that range would require a broader, longer duration storm, with more moisture and more frontside overrunning.

Excellent point there. 96 was an absolute perfect track to cash in on the warm air advection overunning while the low was still down in Georgia..and it turned into the comma head...30" at my house. This is going to be primarily from a comma head type deal that backs in..it will have an epic band and probably spots with 20" from meso features. Otherwise, this is a classic 12-18incher if you ask me.

[jm1220]

00z GGEM was a smidge west of the 12z run with the precip

Looks like a "consensus" is developing that has most of the heavy stuff east of the Delaware and amounts dropping off fast west of there. It's a very dynamic situation but Philly (maybe immediately west of them) is still a nightmarish nailbiter to forecast for. That's where you could have a 12/30/00 type situation where there's a few inches tops in places like Chester/Berks, and over a foot just over the Delaware in Cherry Hill.

[Blizzardo]

There is some SERIOUS snow removal equipment at those airports.

I worked at EWR on the air traffic side of things and although they do have some serious equipment, Mostly OLD equipment that breaks down...

It still gets banged up pretty bad and they can't keep up with it in a big storm

[jrodd321]

[Stormlover74]

That radar in the Carolinas is starting to really look nice

Same time they started snowing on 12/19 last year, this time though it makes it here before 1pm

[stockmanjr]

Your 3 majors can clean up pretty quick from even a storm like this. Most of Monday may be a wash but by Teusday delays will most likely be from those flights pushed back already. There is some SERIOUS snow removal equipment at those airports.

I'm supposed to fly 3pm monday not very bullish on it at the moment.. Anyhow I do agree with you about the snow removal just lingering winds and also assets that are out of place would be the issue for the late Monday time frame.

[am19psu]

No offense, Glenn, but I agree. The over 18" area is going to be a bit smaller.

That said, Glenn did a better job than anyone else in the DMA, so you can't really fault him for that.

BTW, Glenn, please post more. Everyone benefits from your posts here. I really can't emphasize enough how much everyone values your input.

[Bobby]

MM5 precip thru hour 36 matches the NAM and GFS for NYC and LI and SWCT, coastal Jersey and areas around these parts.. Has serious banding setting up right over the city. About 1.25" for people that cant read with more coming after.

I notice that the pink band extends along the N shore of the island from NYC. Is that due to the sound providing a boost to precip levels? I ask as I also notice the same situation along most of the coastal sections that have a body of water upwind from them so to speak.

[jm1220]

Excellent point there. 96 was an absolute perfect track to cash in on the warm air advection overunning while the low was still down in Georgia..and it turned into the comma head...30" at my house. This is going to be primarily from a comma head type deal that backs in..it will have an epic band and probably spots with 20" from meso features. Otherwise, this is a classic 12-18incher if you ask me.

It should have a longer duration than 12/19 last year though, at least up here where the snow struggled mightily until late that evening. We accumulated close to a foot in only a few hours, and this one looks just as dynamic as that one if not even moreso. I doubt there are widespread 20"+ kind of totals also, but it's not out of the realm of possibility IMO. The snow lasts a good 18 hours on the NAM and is heavy for most of it. It starts around noon tomorrow and doesn't quit until maybe 4-5am Mon for Long Island.

[jrodd321]

Solid.

[Bobby]

I'm supposed to fly 3pm monday not very bullish on it at the moment.. Anyhow I do agree with you about the snow removal just lingering winds and also assets that are out of place would be the issue for the late Monday time frame.

I just called work and they are gearing up big time so the assets should be there. Definitely think a 3pm flight is a wash at this point. Winds and cascading delays will be the biggest issue going into Teusday also.

[CoastalWx]

I think there will be one hell of a frontogenesis band over the NYC area. Pretty good evidence of this happening based on the progs. Obviously where this happens will have an outcome. I would think it's in a narrow area, but not high confidence in that.

[Chris L]

The difference from this and the JAN 1996 storm was that at H500 the flow was cutoff and had some overrunning snows due to warm air advection; we do not have the overrunning bit here as this is a very dynamic system, probably more than the 96 blizzard. Widespread 2 feet plus will not be seen here as this is driven dynamic bomb... Now if we had the overrunning bit.... Completely different story.

[nzucker]

I think there will be one hell of a frontogenesis band over the NYC area. Pretty good evidence of this happening based on the progs. Obviously where this happens will have an outcome. I would think it's in a narrow area, but not high confidence in that.

Yes, it appears there's going to be two maximum areas in this storm, probably one in NYC metro and the other about a triangle between BOS, ORH, and PYM. I'm really liking this area for some heavy snows, pleased with where I'm sitting as there is usually intense banding in the area where the low is captured and stalls.

[blizzardlover]

Radar Loop

Nice northern jog to radar in the last few frames.

[simpsonsbuff]

Here's hour 39 (what's not picked up by that 24 hr map on the Suny MM5)... I it is still lightly snowing... 1.5+ it would seem total from NYC to HPN or so and then cutting across the north shore and eastern LI.

[tombo82685]

heres the the ruc at 18hr, seems to be pretty far west of guidance, but than again it ruc at 18, like the nam at 84

[SnowGoose69]

The start time for this event is a major pain....alot of the models tonight show precip now only backing in around 18Z-19Z from the SE with quick deterioration after, but radar indicating its likely to be before that, I think the major snows are after 19Z for sure but could see 1-2 inches in light periods of snow before that time with some snow as early as 4-6am.

[eduggs]

Wow, you've been unlucky, but of course it's generally the people immediately on the coast who jackpot in these situations. I've had three 20" storms in Westchester (born in 1988): January 1996, February 2006, and February 25, 2010. I do live at 350' in a wooded area far from the Hudson River, though.

And I agree with your sentiment about the isolated totals of 20-25"...I'm pretty sure some places will get that under the best deformation banding, but I question whether we can approach a widespread 20" event with QPF only shown around 1.5". I could see a lot of people getting 16-18"...

Feb 2006 is a great example of how you need to get lucky with the meso-banding. I was near White Plains for that one and was very impressed.

I've also lived through a 700" winter in the Wasatch mountains of Utah, so can't say I'm unlucky in the snow department.

[NJwinter23]

This is Farmingdale NJ in se Monmouth County on 00z gfs. Winds tail off on these soundings as you head inland but holy moly, still incredibly bullish on these wind gusts in coastal counties and long island...JFK 00z bufkit hasn't loaded in yet, but was showing 59kt at the surface 11PM tmrw nightt on 18z

[CoastalWx]

Yes, it appears there's going to be two maximum areas in this storm, probably one in NYC metro and the other about a triangle between BOS, ORH, and PYM. I'm really liking this area for some heavy snows, pleased with where I'm sitting as there is usually intense banding in the area where the low is captured and stalls.

Yeah the nw part of the low usually gets crushed, if it stalls. I see a big banding signal near NYC.

[jm1220]

Here's hour 39 (what's not picked up by that 24 hr map on the Suny MM5)... I it is still lightly snowing... 1.5+ it would seem total from NYC to HPN or so and then cutting across the north shore and eastern LI.

It's amazing how long now the MM5 and Nam are keeping the snow going here, now it could still be coming down at 7 or 8am Monday. I don't think the heavy CCB band that develops over us ever really pivots out-it just gradually dies out like the 2/25 event.

[SmokeEater]

KACY reporting light snow as of 11pm

Been snowing lightly down towards the Airport, Egg Harbor Twp, for over an hour now. It's on my doorstep here in Folsom.

[LocoAko]

00Z NAM continues wind thread, particularly out of over Long Island. Over "inland" locations (checked KEWR) there is a bit of a stronger signature for an inversion aloft but still 50kts underneath it. At KISP, 70kts is present at 875hPa at 9PM tomorrow. The layer beneath that is seemingly well-mixed (920hPa to surface) and there is moderate snow falling at the time. Fun times ahead.

[Dark Energy]

I am pretty confident that some places see over 20" from this. It's a miller A blizzard. I mean, seriously.

[jwilson]

Excellent point there. 96 was an absolute perfect track to cash in on the warm air advection overunning while the low was still down in Georgia..and it turned into the comma head...30" at my house. This is going to be primarily from a comma head type deal that backs in..it will have an epic band and probably spots with 20" from meso features. Otherwise, this is a classic 12-18incher if you ask me.

You'll have to excuse my ignorance, but '96 was a weak La Nina, correct? I'm not entirely certain on the difference between the setup of '96 and now other than we had that large comma head which gave us a lot of "lead" snow before the comma-head low took over. What allowed for the WAA overrunning event? Those situations, including PDII, always seem to be our best in the PHL area. What are we missing to get those snows? A stronger STJ influence?

[Dsnowx53]

Yeah the nw part of the low usually gets crushed, if it stalls. I see a big banding signal near NYC.

Do you think that could perhaps leave an area of subsidence in Long Island? That's actually something I'm fearing, and it's what essentially happened in 2/12/06. I'm in western LI, though, so I hope I'm far enough west to be near/in the banding and avoid the area of subsidence, but I am afraid that there will be an area of subsidence somewhere on LI, considering the frontogenic signals near NYC.

Fortunately, this storm seems to have a different component of movement than 2/12/06, so I don't think LI would get as "screwed" over as they did then, but I can't help thinking about it.