NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

[Bluescat1]

All 3 of those lines intersect IMBY.

[jm1220]

Wow, NWS going with 6-10" today for my location and 10-14" tonight. 16-24" total.

[_AR_]

[Chris L]

I actually expect PHL to get well over a foot per radar and up to 18-20" for PHL....

[Scottium]

Finally first flakes in Parkesburg pa ( far western Chester county ).

[Kingwill]

Wow, that map "only" has my area in the 1 ft area in Somerset County..Guess those 15-24 numbers will be to the East from here..

[SnoSki14]

Mt. Holly gives me 12-18, yet Union county, just one county above has 15-20 with up to 2 feet possible and much stronger winds.

So some interesting differences but I'm not complaining at all, I'm aiming low on the totals around here (8-10") since for some reason, they always end up lower than surrounding places, like in the late February storm of last year where I got dry slotted for several hours while everyone around me was getting snow. Most places around me had up to 6" more snow than I did.

[Kingwill]

I actually expect PHL to get well over a foot per radar and up to 18-20" for PHL....

What about Central NJ (somerset County) ?

[jerseystorm]

This is starting to look very 1899ish

[Chris L]

What about Central NJ (somerset County) ?

Likely the same 14 to 20 inches of snow.

[ptb127]

Good luck to all those who are in the bulls eye! I hope that MBY can get into the bull eye at some point this winter season.

[jm1220]

About 1.5" on the ground currently.

[rgwp96]

i think steve d hacked uptons computers

[ace0927]

JUST WOW!!!

[A-L-E-X]

BTW JM, you me, Ace and Doug are right under that dotted blue line!

[Stormlover74]

Well Upton just raised totals considerably for my area from 8 to 12 to 14 to 22 in union county. Though in the blizzard warning section it said 11 to 16 area wide so it was a bit confusing

When did Mt Holly last update that snow map?

Mt. Holly gives me 12-18, yet Union county, just one county above has 15-20 with up to 2 feet possible and much stronger winds.

So some interesting differences but I'm not complaining at all, I'm aiming low on the totals around here (8-10") since for some reason, they always end up lower than surrounding places, like in the late February storm of last year where I got dry slotted for several hours while everyone around me was getting snow. Most places around me had up to 6" more snow than I did.

[joey]

BTW JM, you me, Ace and Doug are right under that dotted blue line!

and....

Radar starting to fill in nicely.

[gkrangers]

Well Upton just raised totals considerably for my area from 8 to 12 to 14 to 22 in union county. Though in the blizzard warning section it said 11 to 16 area wide so it was a bit confusing

When did Mt Holly last update that snow map?

Mt. Holly hasn't touched that map since yesterday I think.

[jdt]

Mt holly map has not updated since last night fyi

[Isotherm]

Upton's VERY bullish, a little too much so IMO. I'll stick with 12-18" locally higher for CNJ, NYC, and LI.

[Chris L]

This is going to imply 20 to 30 inches of snow for local spots...

[NorEaster27]

From UPTON:

SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES FORTHCOMING WITH THIS UPDATE. BASED ON

EARLIER THINKING...AND WITH 12Z GFS/NAM BOTH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY

ON LOW TRACK AND QPF...HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS AND ALSO

EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. INTENSE MESOSCALE

BANDING EXPECTED TO PIVOT INTO NYC METRO AND WESTERN/CENTRAL LONG

ISLAND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD DELIVER STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF

15-20 INCHES...LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2 FEET. OTHER AREAS IN THE CWA

SHOULD SEE 12-18 INCHES. WIND WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON WHAT

WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN EXCELLENT SNOW RATIOS OF 15-1 OR 20-1

GIVEN INTENSE LIFT AT IDEAL SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURES ALOFT... WITH

ROEBBER NEURAL NET ALGORITHM SUGGESTING GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF

RATIOS UNDER 10-1...SO USED CLIMATOLOGICAL 11-1 RATIO INSTEAD AND

SCALED DOWN WHERE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. NAM/GFS ALSO IN

CLOSER AGREEMENT ON MIXING BEING LIMITED TO THE SOUTH FORK OF

EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO WILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS MAINLY 6-12

INCHES THERE.

[_AR_]

I know this is an OB but i guess it is important so I will post it here. There is nothing near me on radar (see location on map in signature), yet in the last 10 minutes snow has increased from flurries to a steady light snow.

[snowman21]

Upton's VERY bullish, a little too much so IMO. I'll stick with 12-18" locally higher for CNJ, NYC, and LI.

Agree. I would have left the numbers where they were. They are giving themselves no out at this point. We've seen plenty of storms not max out for many reasons at the last minute. If they forecast 12-18 inches and that is the general accumulation, even with isolated 24 inch amounts their forecast would verify. If they really are upping totals, then the forecast zones have to reach the 18-24 or whatever the new range is in order to verify which is pretty tough to do over a wide area.

[snywx]

Ratios are quite impressive already up here right now.. Its been snowing lightly for 20 mins and already I have a good coating on all surfaces.

With colder temps and less wind I see no reason why we cant pile up 12+ up here.

Currently 21* and lgt snow.. Coating on all surfaces

[Dosh]

16z RUC swamps boston and takes an 1899 track. NJ/PA sees frigid high ratio snow

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

hmm....so high winds cut down snow ratios? never knew that.

[CoastalWx]

Euro tucked east just a hair and lowered qpf a smidge, but I don't think it changes much with banding potential.

[_AR_]

hmm....so high winds cut down snow ratios? never knew that.

Certainly can. But it's near impossible to measure in high winds anyway. haha.

[A-L-E-X]

Agree. I would have left the numbers where they were. They are giving themselves no out at this point. We've seen plenty of storms not max out for many reasons at the last minute. If they forecast 12-18 inches and that is the general accumulation, even with isolated 24 inch amounts their forecast would verify. If they really are upping totals, then the forecast zones have to reach the 18-24 or whatever the new range is in order to verify which is pretty tough to do over a wide area.

What they did with PD2 was steadily increase projections from 6-12 to 12-18 to 18-24 and left it there and towards the end of the event they mentioned southern Brooklyn, Queens and Nassau could get 24-30..... that's what they should do here also. When it becomes apparent who is going to get more than the stated range then mention it.