NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

[Organizing Low]

Eagles/Vikings game moved to 8pm Tuesday.

:thumbsdown:

[A-L-E-X]

:thumbsdown:

I heard Favre wanted to start-- I hope they didnt move it for him.

[NJHurricane]

last 3 frames of national radar...looks like start of pivot and the echoes start getting heavier along the coastal plain where its already snowing...at least to my eyes

[A-L-E-X]

Why would it suck? For you yes... For me no

We just need to enjoy the moment-- there's like 0 visibility here and it looks like a blizzard already lol.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

do you guys realize places down south on 95 have had their totals upped ?????

gee, what do you think that means for those north on 95 ?????

[jm1220]

Snow is already coming down moderately and piling up faster. Probably close to an inch now.

[Edge Weather]

The RUC has been amazingly stubborn on insisting that thing remains closer to the coast.

16Z RUC at 10hrs http://www.nco.ncep....uc_slp_010l.gif

Still keeping with a heavier band getting into western NJ and eastern PA. It does however seem a touch further east with the SLP then runs from several hours ago. Still an outlier with that bullish push that far west with that heavy band but still interesting none-the-less.

[goldstar]

Low is bombing fast now look at the pressure changes on SACRUS thread!

[jm1220]

that would SUCK....and its been consistent

At 12z it was probably at least 30-40 miles further west with the low and deeper. We're still getting annihilated regardless under that setup. Time to look more at radar and much less at any models.

[sferic]

Well, here's to hoping SW nassau County makes up for getting the lower end of the stick from all the major hits this past decade.

Light to moderate snow here in Lynbrook 1/8 mile visibility 27.3 degrees

[A-L-E-X]

Snow is already coming down moderately and piling up faster. Probably close to an inch now.

We might get two feet if things break right-- the quickness of heavy snow coming in reminds me of Jan 96 and PD2.

[A-L-E-X]

Well, here's to hoping SW nassau County makes up for getting the lower end of the stick from all the major hits this past decade.

Light to moderate snow here in Lynbrook 1/8 mile visibility 27.3 degrees

We did really well in PD2.... 26-28 inches. And the April storm that year we beat everyone else. ..... had 60 inches of snow that winter

[NEXtreme]

This storm is only getting started. Its in its baby stages. I can't imagine later into the night. The fact the snow began a bit early is great since it kept temps from rising into the low 30's and in turn much better snow ratios

[Jefflaw77]

Snow is already coming down moderately and piling up faster. Probably close to an inch now.

About 1" here in Dix Hills, NY

Jeff

EDIT: The wind is really picking up... It's only 12:40pm.. Storm is hundreds of miles away....

This storm may end up scaring the **** out of people on the coast!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Everyone west of I-95 should remember that 60 hours ago, you weren't getting dick. When I see a flake, I'll be happy. Hopefully everyone gets some snow.

post of the storm.

spot on....

[sferic]

We did really well in PD2.... 26-28 inches. And the April storm that year we beat everyone else. ..... had 60 inches of snow that winter

Yes but 2006 hurt hard yes PD2 was great.

[jm1220]

Just amazing banding developing now south of Suffolk County. It wouldn't surprise me if thunder is in there somewhere already, and we're barely at kickoff for this event. We're going to get absolutely DEMOLISHED later this afternoon.

[gkrangers]

[SnoSki14]

I'll be surprised to get a foot from this, most of the big totals will likely be over central and west/central LI. Completely white outside though, everything is covered, about 26F right now.

[ag3]

NYC and LI and vicinity are in for a real show this afternoon.

Radar is explosive and it appears some convection showing up.

[ag3]

Winds are already gusting to 23mph at LGA.

[jm1220]

We might get two feet if things break right-- the quickness of heavy snow coming in reminds me of Jan 96 and PD2.

Just LOOK at that radar south of Islip, there's orange echos in that band and it's heading right for us. By 3pm we could already be experiencing whiteout or near whiteout conditions. Hopefully that band doesn't push past us, but without a doubt we're a few hours away from Snowmageddon pretty much.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

WOW @ mesoscale discussion from Norman OK....the spine of NJ

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I'll be surprised to get a foot from this, most of the big totals will likely be over central and west/central LI. Completely white outside though, everything is covered, about 26F right now.

wrong...

see mesoscale map.

[snywx]

I'll have to get in my car and drive 2 miles across the hudson to be in it.

Eastern Orange County is gonna get smoked.. Might very well be jackpot for the NYC metro area..

[jm1220]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1240 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM IMMINENT...

CTZ009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-270145-

/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-101227T2300Z/

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-

WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-

WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-

KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

1240 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WITH CONSIDERABLE

BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT

TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...15 TO 20 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP

TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS...AND STRONG WINDS CAUSING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING

AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AT

TIMES... WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS MAY

ALSO DOWN SOME POWER LINES...TREE LIMBS...AND CHRISTMAS

DECORATIONS.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO

MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST

MONDAY MORNING...BUT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH

THE AFTERNOON.

* WINDS....DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS

WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH.

ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF

YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

[Chris L]

This is going to rival Feb 25th in terms of snow rates and wind for New York City Metro.. Of course, if it stalls; it will beat Feb 25th and probably match FEB 12th 2006 blizzard. This is not going to rival the 1996 blizzard because we do not have a cutoff low througout the whole levels of the atmosphere and the first 'batch' of overunning we would get in our top HECS... Then again, FEB 2006 was very dynamic, this wll be even more dynamic.... Then again the MM5 wants to close the levels off and form a huge band of snow...

[_AR_]

RUC picking up on the highest amounts falling in central NJ over the next 12 hours due to mesoscale banding.

[uofmiami]

jm1220,

OKX discussion really highlighted this, looks like Nassau County could be the big winner here

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES FORTHCOMING WITH THIS UPDATE. BASED ON

EARLIER THINKING...AND WITH 12Z GFS/NAM BOTH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY

ON LOW TRACK AND QPF...HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS AND ALSO

EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. INTENSE MESOSCALE

BANDING EXPECTED TO PIVOT INTO NYC METRO AND WESTERN/CENTRAL LONG

ISLAND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD DELIVER STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF

15-20 INCHES...LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2 FEET. OTHER AREAS IN THE CWA

SHOULD SEE 12-18 INCHES. WIND WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON WHAT

WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN EXCELLENT SNOW RATIOS OF 15-1 OR 20-1

GIVEN INTENSE LIFT AT IDEAL SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURES ALOFT... WITH

ROEBBER NEURAL NET ALGORITHM SUGGESTING GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF

RATIOS UNDER 10-1...SO USED CLIMATOLOGICAL 11-1 RATIO INSTEAD AND

SCALED DOWN WHERE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. NAM/GFS ALSO IN

CLOSER AGREEMENT ON MIXING BEING LIMITED TO THE SOUTH FORK OF

EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO WILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS MAINLY 6-12

INCHES THERE.

FROM EARLIER DISCUSSION...EXACTLY WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL

LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT MAY BE COMING MORE INTO FOCUS. THE 12Z

NAM SHOWED ITS STRONGEST H7-8 LAYER FRONTOGENESIS DISPLACED ABOUT

30 MILES NW OF THE STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS OFF DELMARVA ATTM...NO

SURPRISE THERE AS THIS OFTEN HAPPENS WITH INTENSE COASTAL STORMS.

TAKING THE NAM OTHERWISE AS A PERFECT PROG AND FOLLOWING EVOLUTION

OF ITS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL

OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CT INTO WESTERN SUFFOLK AND NASSAU

COUNTIES ON LONG ISLAND..POSSIBLY A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO

SOUTHWEST CT AND NYC IF YOU LOOK AT H7 FRONTOGENESIS ONLY.

PER ABOVE HAVE INCREASED MAX TOTALS...AS THAT BANDING LOOKS TO

SET UP THERE TOWARD EVENING AND REMAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF

THE NIGHT.

THE DEEP LOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND FIELD.

BL WINDS IN THE GFS STILL CLOSE TO 60 KT OVER LONG ISLAND. NAM

WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER AT THE COAST BUT STRONGER INLAND. FOR THIS

REASON HAVE BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-60 MPH AND EXTENDED

BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO ENTIRE CWA. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE

ACROSS EASTERN LI.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

[Stormlover74]