NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

[ace0927]

The safety of the fans/employees attending should be paramount.

BTW- my comment was based on a tweet by Greg Aiello, VP of NFL Communications...just so you dont think I was making false comments

anyone watching the NFL Network can concur my comments

gregaiello Greg Aiello Not yet. We're discussing situation. Stand by. RT @davepr12: @gregaiello Any word on the Eagles game being postponed?41 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply

[tombo82685]

15z 12 hr ruc accum totals

[snowman21]

Exactly Tony I'd imagine it was a true mad-rush this morning at the supermarkets

Never understood that. It's not like people go to the grocery store so frequently that not being able to do so for 18 hours would be a big deal. I go about once a week, usually Sat. or Sun. morning. Wasn't too bad this morning around 9. I see a lot worse on a Sat. or Sun. afternoon around 3 regardless of weather.

[SnowGoose69]

is that really a trait of the gfs?

i'm not doubting... just asking.

it is annoying because the gfs has been the most bullish model since it started the trend back to the coast days ago. then on game day, it wimps out.

Yes, it seems to do it every event....last year it did it big time on 12/19 as the NAM was upping the amounts

[Stormlover74]

Steven DiMartino All temperatures are roughly 3 to 6 degrees colder than expected compared to 00Z and 06Z model data. via Twitter

Steven DiMartino This will have to be factored in and as such, working on new snow map. via Twitter

Where did you see this - and/or what'd he up his amounts to? Map?

[jm1220]

It already looks great outside. A good light snow falling, ground coated including the road outside my house. Looking forward to a ferocious late afternoon and night. This definitely wasn't like 12/19 where it took all day to get 2 flurries to fall here.

[Bilas]

Is it really going to get that bad to cancel the Eagles game? I look for the forecast to lower the totals in the Philadelphia areas. Looks like nyc north gets this one.

[jdt]

Looks like the precip shielf down in the VA area is starting to tighten up, as in squeeze together some in east to west width. Also, though the orientation of the shield is generally SW to NE the same are I mentioned down in VA looks to be taking on a mainly northerly trajactory. Should all be in response to the deeping low now SE of Cape Hatters. All looks to be unfolding as expected but as usually its those little details at this point forward that make the differenc to what the IMBY outcomes are. Fun to watch for sure!

[Jefflaw77]

The SUNY MM5 is rolling in now.

The MM5 is out to 21 hours.. The track is basically SICK for NYC/Long Island..

The low is 970 at 4am monday morning.. Pretty much in the perfect spot! (i think)

[Bluescat1]

First flakes in TTN.

[SnowGoose69]

Gotta love ho at 27 degrees the snow still melts on NYC streets, until it comes down at crazy rates...

[KEITH L.I]

Yes, it seems to do it every event....last year it did it big time on 12/19 as the NAM was upping the amounts

did it in Feb 2006..about 12 hours before it showed the city just getting an inch of precip..NAM was very bullish..that's the model you look at during the event

[green tube]

Whiting up the ground.

for anyone not in the snow yet, i assure you the moment those green echoes reach you, it's snowing.

[donsutherland1]

Light snow in Larchmont. Most surfaces are coated. The pre-treated streets are wet.

[johnc]

This is the part of the storm that always makes me nervous because you can see that thing coming up the coast but just how far west does the heavy precip make it? We should be fine here in S NJ at least.

You'd have to be crazy to make a career in meteorology. Pizza man is so much safer. You don't get cussed out if the pizza's 5 minutes late or has heavier than expected pepperoni accumulations.

[Allsnow]

Gotta love ho at 27 degrees the snow still melts on NYC streets, until it comes down at crazy rates...

lol..it saves are ur tax dollars...as those under ground steam pipes act as a deicer

[ARyan]

HRRR absolutely clobbers LI with deformation bands later this afternoon and tonight. Snow already starting to pick up here on Western LI.

An inch of qpf for most of the coastal areas by 1z tonight. Probably overdoing it, but interesting none the less.

[phlwx]

This is the part of the storm that always makes me nervous because you can see that thing coming up the coast but just how far west does the heavy precip make it? We should be fine here in S NJ at least.

You'd have to be crazy to make a career in meteorology. Pizza man is so much safer. You don't get cussed out if the pizza's 5 minutes late or has heavier than expected pepperoni accumulations.

but if you have two fewer pepperoni slices than progged you're in trouble.

[sferic]

The MM5 is out to 21 hours.. The track is basically SICK for NYC/Long Island..

The low is 970 at 4am monday morning.. Pretty much in the perfect spot! (i think)

Jeff,

So what do you think this means from Lynbrook to Dix Hills?

QPF wise? Maximum snows, ending times of accum snows?

[MJO812]

Dusting right now

[p626808]

Snow and wind picking up at the jersey shore..

[A-L-E-X]

thats usually the KOD

Models now aren't the best tool to use now, the radar is much better for nowcasting purposes.

BTW, awesome job with the Euro updates for this storm. Enjoy this one, you deserve it bud!!

It was nice to get an early start to the snow at 9:30 and have it sticking to everything right away Winds are picking up too!

[Blizzardo]

POST observations in the OTHER thread !!

[XtremeWx]

Steve D just updated his snow map

Has all of NYC, most of LI and NJ (except for NW NJ and SW NJ) in the 15-24 + inch range.

[A-L-E-X]

did it in Feb 2006..about 12 hours before it showed the city just getting an inch of precip..NAM was very bullish..that's the model you look at during the event

Yes, but leading up to events, the NAM has been crap (especially this season.)

Long range : EURO

Mid range : GFS

Shore range / nowcasting : NAM

[SnowGoose69]

This light green area coming through NYC is decently heavy...those darker greens are gonna be sweet...

[KEITH L.I]

snow starting to blow off the roofs..powdery snow..snowing moderate 28 degrees in West Babylon

[jrodd321]

Steve D just updated his snow map

Has all of NYC, LI and NJ (except for NW NJ) in the 15-24 + inch range.

Image/link?

[Tiburon]

Radar looks like the moisture is hitting the Delaware River and stopping, then bending north around Trenton. I hope my paranoia means I'm just hallucinating.

Couple things:

1. Modeling is not the best thing to look out. NOWcast people. Radar, and good old fashioned sticking your head out the window.

2. Sim Reflectivity is garbage. It's a video game.

3. Deformation bands cannot be modeled. Parameters that say where they are likely to be set up can be modeled, but they are unpredictable.

4. To the poster above, it "bends" north around TTN because the DIX radar site is there and you're seeing the donut effect around the site.

[A-L-E-X]

Jeff,

So what do you think this means from Lynbrook to Dix Hills?

QPF wise? Maximum snows, ending times of accum snows?

It probably stalls too