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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8


NickD2011

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Ha...no...it actually looks alot like 1/25/00 although its displaced eastward quite a bit from where that was....the amazing arching band of precip from Cape Code all the way down to NC

I was just looking at the radar and said to myself "self-this looks very much like the radar the AM of Jan 25 2000"....only this one wont get far enough to the west to screw us...

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BUFKIT-based and model-based soundings were awful with ratios last winter. The three big storms in Philly averaged about 11:1 while BUFKIT was drumming up 15:1 in one of the storms, 14:1 average in another.

Couple of factors, one being compaction, the other the strong winds tend to split snowflakes apart and decrease the ratio.

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Any obs from southern NJ? Cape May or AC? Thinking about making a trip to AC from NNJ, but not sure of the conditions on the GSP.

I'm in Ocean Township, NJ Eastern Monmouth (About Mile Marker 103 on the GSP) Snow has picked up, and has started sticking immediately to the roads. I imagine the parkway gets worse from here as you go south.

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I despise tight gradients, haha. I got screwed by them a couple times last year. Oh the hauntings. :axe:

Should I mix the egg nog early this morning?

RUC has been consitent in a near stalling of the 980-975 low maybe 75-100 miles east of the NJ coast for 8+ hours. Hour 10 through hour 18 minimal movement and keep NYC/NJ/E PA/S NY State in the CCB/Deform constantly. LI is close to dryslotting at times...

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RGEM is wettest for NYC east then it has ever been. 30-35mm. Falls in line with NAM/GFS for NYC on east.

But west into NJ its still the least but it has no impact on whats been forecast, I was just pointing it out. Thought it would have caved. I also dont see 30 - 35MM from the b/w maps.

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RUC has been consitent in a near stalling of the 980-975 low maybe 75-100 miles east of the NJ coast for 8+ hours. Hour 10 through hour 18 minimal movement and keep NYC/NJ/E PA/S NY State in the CCB/Deform constantly. LI is close to dryslotting at times...

It has been extremely consistent with that idea. the 14z did look to be a touch further east with the SLP but still the stall or at least slow drift basicaly east of Toms River south of Montauk. Still wants to push the heavy band, deformation band perhaps, well west of most all other guidance. Its consitency must make you take notice but it still is the most bullish with such a push west with the significant banding features. Consitently right or consitently wrong? hmmm. Most pros seems to lean against it especially in its later panels.

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But west into NJ its still the least but it has no impact on whats been forecast, I was just pointing it out. Thought it would have caved. I also dont see 30 - 35MM from the b/w maps.

Color is out. Has 15mm thru hour 12 and 15-20mm hours 12-24 for NYC and LI.

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Screwed from the jackpot, but we still did very well! Don't worry, I think 10"+ still looks like a decent call for us.

I hope you're right! I'd still like to see the full-fledged fury of this beast, however. Have you seen any flakes yet? Air feels somewhat drier here, humidity only in the upper 50s to 66% now it looks like.

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