bates Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Pushing north, yes, but dry air N & W of the big cities appears to be inhibiting any expansion west. Snow reaching Long Island before Philadelphia does not appear to be a good sign for most folks in SE PA, IMO. What dry air? I'm 30 miles northwest of NYC and have a humidity level of 91%.Similar conditions northwest of me as well. It'll take nothing to saturate the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The radar is from accuwx - someone asked that above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Man if that much qpf occurs with those ratios...good lord. NAM pivots the deformation band right over the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 For those that are worried...take a look at the radar down in VA and NC...you can clearly see that the main blob is advancing northward and its plenty enough west to make it into E PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Pushing north, yes, but dry air N & W of the big cities appears to be inhibiting any expansion west. Snow reaching Long Island before Philadelphia does not appear to be a good sign for most folks in SE PA, IMO. Its's coming in quicker now.. almost to C-NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Ha...no...it actually looks alot like 1/25/00 although its displaced eastward quite a bit from where that was....the amazing arching band of precip from Cape Code all the way down to NC I see what you're saying. Good thing in this case the precip will bend back toward the coast unlike Dec 2000 where it shot straight up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You know we can all quibble about who's going to get what etc etc.. However, a safe bet is 10-20" region wide... From the Delware River Valley of western NJ to Eastern Long Island.. Where the heaviest bands set up will dictate who gets the 20" and vice versa.. The bottom line folks is that we go through this all the time.. However, this time the big unknown from my perspective is the wind factor as most models are suggesting punishing winds on the coast and the possibility of a stall for a short period of time.. We should all be thrilled with what we're going to get b/c a few days ago we were progged to get NOTHING... Again regardless of what we all get.... This imagery says it all... IMPRESSIVE is an understatment.. http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 PHL 0.76 PTW 0.41 ABE 0.39 NXX 0.75 TTN 1.03 ACY 1.34 Gradient!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Pushing north, yes, but dry air N & W of the big cities appears to be inhibiting any expansion west. Snow reaching Long Island before Philadelphia does not appear to be a good sign for most folks in SE PA, IMO. and the snow is reaching Long Island before NYC, ya think that's a bad sign for NYC???? use your head before making these stupid posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobscott Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Text soundings off NAM JFK: 1.82" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kjfk.txt LGA: 1.78" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_klga.txt NYC: 1.75" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_knyc.txt EWR: 1.61" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kewr.txt ISP: 1.76" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kisp.txt OKX: 1.74" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kokx.txt link please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 link please? The links are next to each amount in my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Latest RUC shows over 5" of snow by about 7pm here in the NW Philly burbs (27nm) NW of PHL...I would be a bit surprised if that much actually falls as I am expecting a pretty sharp cutoff. Enjoy the day! Paul (or anyone), Does model qpf take in account any upsloping? I know we don't live in the Rockies, but a lot of times you hear about the "fall line" north west of Philly. No doubt we see less precip than areas east. I'm just wondering if our elevation will help to squeeze out a few additional flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Radar has really started to explode over the last two hours and now everything is starting to move due north. When the storm completely closes off later on, these bands will be coming off the ocean. It's already a dynamic storm, and it hasn't even started snowing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Radar has really started to explode over the last two hours and now everything is starting to move due north. When the storm completely closes off later on, these bands will be coming off the ocean. It's already a dynamic storm, and it hasn't even started snowing yet. When you look at the WV imagery it looks as though the base of the trough is just now turning negative. Looks as if this thing is ready to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You know we can all quibble about who's going to get what etc etc.. However, a safe bet is 10-20" region wide... From the Delware River Valley of western NJ to Eastern Long Island.. Where the heaviest bands set up will dictate who gets the 20" and vice versa.. The bottom line folks is that we go through this all the time.. However, this time the big unknown from my perspective is the wind factor as most models are suggesting punishing winds on the coast and the possibility of a stall for a short period of time.. We should all be thrilled with what we're going to get b/c a few days ago we were progged to get NOTHING... Again regardless of what we all get.... This imagery says it all... IMPRESSIVE is an understatment.. http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=12 Sounds good: I would have said LI - SNE : 1 - 2 ft C-NJ, NE-N, NYC : 10 - 18 inches NW/W NJ, E-PA : 6 - 12 My magic #' NYC : 14" Yankee Stadium : 14 Citi Field : 15" Giant Stadium : 13" EWR: 15" TTN : 11" Floral Park : 16" Lavalette : 15" PHI : 9" Freehld Mall : 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 RUC looking epic for SE PA!! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/index_slp_l_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Light Snow has commenced in Dix Hills, NY - 9:55AM... Accumulating.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Paul (or anyone), Does model qpf take in account any upsloping? I know we don't live in the Rockies, but a lot of times you hear about the "fall line" north west of Philly. No doubt we see less precip than areas east. I'm just wondering if our elevation will help to squeeze out a few additional flakes. Yes, but the terrain is modeled smoother than it is in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Obs: 10:03am Richmond Hill, Queens, NY Temp: 28F Weather: Flurries Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yak I am actually already getting a very light snow in NE Queens. There really isn't any dry air to worry about this go around. There is no powerful Arctic high to our north creating any severly depressed dewpoints. Most of us are in the 20's with dews in the teens, which is a very small separation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 9z SREF still locked in http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PCNTOTNE_9z/f87.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Northern Manhattan Cloudy 26 Degrees Dew: 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Light snow now underway in North Massapequa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yes, but the terrain is modeled smoother than it is in reality. Thanks, Tony. Hope you have enough gas for the snow blower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just got back from the grocery store here in Easton - people are taking this storm way out of proportion especially in this area. Obs: 28.2 F Mostly Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 23.6/18 RH is at 75, so a virga storm is not happening. Liking the impressive Omega values on the soundings, this is going to be a very dynamic storm You can't really be sure of that from a surface ob because there could be a dry layer slightly higher up, but model forecast soundings (not to mention reports of light snow) say you're right in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 RUC looking epic for SE PA!! http://www.nco.ncep....lp_l_loop.shtml RUC has been very consitent with that western idea bringing the main band all the way west to eastern PA with the 700 low just off the SE coast of NJ and drysloting eastern areas eventually. An idea to keep an eye up but probably being way over emphasied on the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I despise tight gradients, haha. I got screwed by them a couple times last year. Oh the hauntings. Should I mix the egg nog early this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I despise tight gradients, haha. I got screwed by them a couple times last year. Oh the hauntings. Should I mix the egg nog early this morning? I'd go straight for the vodka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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