NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

[jm1220]

out to 27...I don't even have to look at the surface map to know what this 5H map would translate to

That is just INCREDIBLE. The lift and dynamics ongoing during this timeframe will be insane, and lead to massive snow amounts for sure. Tomorrow night will have pretty much unspeakable conditions in the heavy snow and very gusty wind.

[Birds~69]

Glenn's 11:15pm forecast:

[jm1220]

If there is mixing issues out on the island. The snowpaste could cause major problems with the high winds along with the stress on trees and power lines

If the low gets close enough, I wonder if we'll see a coastal front develop and head inland some in Suffolk County. This took place on 1/22/05 and spiked temps out there above freezing. Even though I was in PA then, I was told the snow here was mainly very pasty and heavy. If we get that along with those 40+ mph winds, look out. Definitely a risk for tree/power line damage.

[NortheastPAWx]

Glenn's 11:15pm forecast:

Based on the recent modeling his 6-12" area is too far west. Maybe he didn't get the chance to fix his map, who knows.

[nzucker]

Glenn's 11:15pm forecast:

20"+ here....WOW!

I was considering a forecast of 12-16" for Westchester but the H7 and H5 tracks do seem perfect for the NYC metro area so this might be the time to go aggressive. It always comes down to where the deformation band sets up and how subsidence affects the areas outside of that band: 12/19/09 was a central LI to SE CT storm, 2/12/06 was a NYC-BDL storm etc....

[Voyager]

Based on the recent modeling his 6-12" area is too far west. Maybe he didn't get the chance to fix his map, who knows.

Let's just wait and see what plays out. I would think in a situation like this he'd be up to date with his maps. Perhaps his forecast will verify up here.

[chademer07]

out to 27...I don't even have to look at the surface map to know what this 5H map would translate to

I just looked at it, not sure it looks as good as you think it does.

[Saturn510]

Are there precip totals from the UK and GGEM?

[SnowGoose69]

FYI all people with flights since its been discussed here a bit...Continental, American, Qantas, and JetBlue among the carriers canceling most of their services into JFK/EWR/LGA after the 18Z-19Z period tomorrow.

[Bobby]

FYI all people with flights since its been discussed here a bit...Continental, American, Qantas, and JetBlue among the carriers canceling most of their services into JFK/EWR/LGA after the 18Z-19Z period tomorrow.

Conti has also cancelled several flights for early Monday morning also. Just an FYI.

[SACRUS]

UKIE is a beast - truly astonosing from where its been out in the Atlantic this past week - which feels like ages ago

[dmb8021]

20"+ here....WOW!

I was considering a forecast of 12-16" for Westchester but the H7 and H5 tracks do seem perfect for the NYC metro area so this might be the time to go aggressive. It always comes down to where the deformation band sets up and how subsidence affects the areas outside of that band: 12/19/09 was a central LI to SE CT storm, 2/12/06 was a NYC-BDL storm etc....

I was thinking that this is one of the few times that being north and west of the city means getting less snow. I guess I may not be going to work on Monday though since I work in Yonkers.

[BucksCO_PA]

Based on the recent modeling his 6-12" area is too far west. Maybe he didn't get the chance to fix his map, who knows.

He's reviewed the recent runs & indicated the QPF is less however he stated the track & intensity remain the same therefore he's not changing his forecast.

[am19psu]

HEY! STOP THE IMBY NONSENSE! NEXT PERSON TO POST "HOW MUCH FOR..." YOU ARE IMMEDIATELY 5 POSTED. KNOCK IT OFF.

[Boreal]

That is just INCREDIBLE. The lift and dynamics ongoing during this timeframe will be insane, and lead to massive snow amounts for sure. Tomorrow night will have pretty much unspeakable conditions in the heavy snow and very gusty wind.

Interesting. MM5 retrogrades the SLP slightly west from hours 24 to 27 and 27 to 30 as it barely crawls north. Look out NW NJ if this notion verifies.

link below (best to use 12K Domain):

http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/html/alt_mm5.cgi

[SACRUS]

GGEM IS ABOUT 0.75 - 1.00 NJ-NYC WEST TO EAST. LI/NE 1.25+

[Bluescat1]

Interesting. MM5 retrogrades the SLP slightly west from hours 24 to 27 and 27 to 30 as it barely crawls north. Look out NW NJ if this notion verifies.

link below (best to use 12K Domain):

Stonybrook MM5

Please check the link. http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2010122600/images_d1/500vor.30.0000.gif

[eduggs]

20"+ here....WOW!

I was considering a forecast of 12-16" for Westchester but the H7 and H5 tracks do seem perfect for the NYC metro area so this might be the time to go aggressive. It always comes down to where the deformation band sets up and how subsidence affects the areas outside of that band: 12/19/09 was a central LI to SE CT storm, 2/12/06 was a NYC-BDL storm etc....

I have been in Putnam County in SENY for the majority of the past 30 years and have NEVER seen a 20" storm (albeit at a very low elevation). Mar93, Jan96, Dec00, Feb03, Dec03, and Feb09 were all very close, but none exceeded this threshold. The situation above 500 feet is different - for example there was well in excess of 24" last Feb in the highlands. Regardless, widespread 20" accumulations is a very bold call. It will probably bust.

Personally I think a late developing, intense, cold storm will produce very high ISOLATED totals. I would expect widespread accumulations in that range would require a broader, longer duration storm, with more moisture and more frontside overrunning.

[stockmanjr]

Conti has also cancelled several flights for early Monday morning also. Just an FYI.

I'm thinking most of Monday will be a loss for flying as well with snow removal and also the lingering winds especially at LGA/JFK/ISP. Any other options on this?

Cheers

Howie

[famartin]

Ray is that something that has changed? I was always under the impression it was a sustained wind along with several other variables including visibility? Thanks

No. Blizzard criteria has always been falling and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less combined with winds sustained *or* frequently gusting to 35 mph for a period of 3 hours or greater.

One thing that has changed is the temperature. It used to have to be 20F or less. Now it doesn't matter.

[tmagan]

I think Glenn's area of 20"+ is too large, even in the most historic snowstorms, its nearly impossible around NYC to see an area of 20"+ that large.

[jm1220]

Interesting. MM5 retrogrades the SLP slightly west from hours 24 to 27 and 27 to 30 as it barely crawls north. Look out NW NJ if this notion verifies.

link below (best to use 12K Domain):

Stonybrook MM5

It doesn't look as strong as I thought it would though given that 500mb depiction. Still awesome snows and N NJ gets nailed, but it seems a little east and biased toward the immediate NYC area. Also thought it might be a touch wetter.

[Bobby]

I'm thinking most of Monday will be a loss for flying as well with snow removal and also the lingering winds especially at LGA/JFK/ISP. Any other options on this?

Cheers

Howie

Your 3 majors can clean up pretty quick from even a storm like this. Most of Monday may be a wash but by Teusday delays will most likely be from those flights pushed back already. There is some SERIOUS snow removal equipment at those airports.

[ScottB]

Please check the link.

Try this

http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/36km.slp.html

[am19psu]

I think Glenn's area of 20"+ is too large, even in the most historic snowstorms, its nearly impossible around NYC to see an area of 20"+ that large.

No offense, Glenn, but I agree. The over 18" area is going to be a bit smaller.

That said, Glenn did a better job than anyone else in the DMA, so you can't really fault him for that.

[blazess556]

00z GGEM was a smidge west of the 12z run with the precip

[Bobby]

No. Blizzard criteria has always been falling and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less combined with winds sustained *or* frequently gusting to 35 mph for a period of 3 hours or greater.

One thing that has changed is the temperature. It used to have to be 20F or less. Now it doesn't matter.

Thank you sir for clearing that up. The "Or" is the part I missed.

[blazess556]

KACY reporting light snow as of 11pm

[Analog96]

I think Glenn's area of 20"+ is too large, even in the most historic snowstorms, its nearly impossible around NYC to see an area of 20"+ that large.

1996 did.

[ag3]

MM5 precip thru hour 36 matches the NAM and GFS for NYC and LI and SWCT, coastal Jersey and areas around these parts.. Has serious banding setting up right over the city. About 1.25" for people that cant read with more coming after.