SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 FOR NYC/ Western Nass cnty, will this be a straight duration or will there be lulls where precip lightens up from time to time? What are the QPF in total for JFK which I'm about 5 miles NE of? i wouldnt expect a lull where precip stops jus a peak of the heaviest snow and snow bands between 4ppm and 4am. 12z nam has qpf for most of bklyn/li in the 1.50(+) range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 New NAM has JFK in the 1.75"-2" shade. ALGREEK so what would be your QPF near LGA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 i wouldnt expect a lull where precip stops jus a peak of the heaviest snow and snow bands between 4ppm and 4am. 12z nam has qpf for most of bklyn/li in the 1.50(+) range Look at zoomed in image. Thats the 1.75"-2" shade over most of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Latest RUC continues to put the storm about 50 miles west of the NAM with the heaviest banding over Eastern PA instead of Eastern NJ. Interesting. This would tend to match up with the latest Mesoscale analysis from the Storm Prediction Center. DAYBREAK SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECIDEDLY WWD SHIFT IN MAX PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN NC/SERN VA. THIS COULD SIGNAL THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WRN ENVELOPE OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...PASSING JUST E OF HATTERAS AROUND 15Z THEN JUST EAST OF NORFOLK BY 18Z. THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE AND THE 03Z SREF GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CORRECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Text soundings off NAM JFK: 1.82" http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_kjfk.txt LGA: 1.78" http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_klga.txt NYC: 1.75" http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_knyc.txt EWR: 1.61" http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_kewr.txt ISP: 1.76" http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_kisp.txt OKX: 1.74" http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_kokx.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Look at zoomed in image. Thats the 1.75"-2" shade over most of NYC. Thanks for the zoom in! The 1.50 - 1.75 and 1.75 - 2.00 colors are so close. Anyway still 1.50(+) but your right looks like a blob of the higher 1.75(+). More a signal than anything. Looks good. reminds me of Dec 30 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just from personal expericence....the best accumulations tend to occur just west of the city into the higer terrain. Even if the heaviest banding stays over the city and immediate coast places like West Milford will likely get more than Jersey City thanks to the higher snow ratios. Bottom line is this will be a widespread 1-2' event east of the DE river. 12"+ west of the DE with locally higher amounts possible everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Text soundings off NAM JFK: 1.82" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kjfk.txt LGA: 1.78" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_klga.txt NYC: 1.75" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_knyc.txt EWR: 1.61" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kewr.txt ISP: 1.76" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kisp.txt OKX: 1.74" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kokx.txt Verbatim, that breaks the record with 15:1 ratios in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Pushing north in the last 90 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Verbatim, that breaks the record with 15:1 ratios in NYC. You won't get 15:1 in this storm. That kind of heavy precip will be 10:1 ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Pushing north in the last 90 mins Come on....someone mention it....I know someone wants to say it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahantango Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Latest RUC continues to put the storm about 50 miles west of the NAM with the heaviest banding over Eastern PA instead of Eastern NJ. Interesting. This would tend to match up with the latest Mesoscale analysis from the Storm Prediction Center. DAYBREAK SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECIDEDLY WWD SHIFT IN MAX PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN NC/SERN VA. THIS COULD SIGNAL THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WRN ENVELOPE OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...PASSING JUST E OF HATTERAS AROUND 15Z THEN JUST EAST OF NORFOLK BY 18Z. THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE AND THE 03Z SREF GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CORRECT. Would this change accumulations in the Susquehanna Valley of Pennsylvania? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Text soundings off NAM JFK: 1.82" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kjfk.txt LGA: 1.78" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_klga.txt NYC: 1.75" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_knyc.txt EWR: 1.61" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kewr.txt ISP: 1.76" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kisp.txt OKX: 1.74" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kokx.txt PHL 0.76 PTW 0.41 ABE 0.39 NXX 0.75 TTN 1.03 ACY 1.34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 12Z NAM tightened the gradient on the western edge significantly. Upped total for me. I still hate being on that gradient, but at least I seem to be on the good side of it. I don't like being on the gradient either, but models seem to be converging on about 1''-1.25'' of QPF for our area, so I think 12-15 inches is a reasonable call at this point. Agreed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Latest RUC shows over 5" of snow by about 7pm here in the NW Philly burbs (27nm) NW of PHL...I would be a bit surprised if that much actually falls as I am expecting a pretty sharp cutoff. Enjoy the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Is long island going to get into the mesoscale banding? Looks like form eastern jersey to nyc, nassua and western suffolf look so any opinions? It looks like you answered your own question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You won't get 15:1 in this storm. That kind of heavy precip will be 10:1 ish. 10-13:1 ratios is likely. So off NAM JFK would get 18"-24". Thats close to records. NYC and LGA similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You won't get 15:1 in this storm. That kind of heavy precip will be 10:1 ish. The models have been spitting out much higher ratios than that. Also the intensity of the precip has nothing to do with the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Text soundings off NAM JFK: 1.82" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kjfk.txt LGA: 1.78" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_klga.txt NYC: 1.75" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_knyc.txt EWR: 1.61" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kewr.txt ISP: 1.76" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kisp.txt OKX: 1.74" http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_kokx.txt PHL 0.76 PTW 0.41 ABE 0.39 NXX 0.75 TTN 1.03 ACY 1.34 HPN 1.67" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Similar to 12/5/03 and 1/25/00 this first band has the potential to do some damage based on the reflectivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Pushing north in the last 90 mins DO you have the exact link to this website.. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Always true....I mentioned this yesterday. West Milford in particular Just from personal expericence....the best accumulations tend to occur just west of the city into the higer terrain. Even if the heaviest banding stays over the city and immediate coast places like West Milford will likely get more than Jersey City thanks to the higher snow ratios. Bottom line is this will be a widespread 1-2' event east of the DE river. 12"+ west of the DE with locally higher amounts possible everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Come on....someone mention it....I know someone wants to say it... Maybe lack of sleep, but Im not sure? Look similar to something other than '89? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Dramatically, if it is correct. That is a big if, but who knows. There was a low that developed a couple of weeks ago just off the NJ coast that was not modeled at all and dropped 3 inches of snow on parts of Long Island and Connecticut. Maybe this one will follow a similar track. Who knows. Would this change accumulations in the Susquehanna Valley of Pennsylvania? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Latest RUC continues to put the storm about 50 miles west of the NAM with the heaviest banding over Eastern PA instead of Eastern NJ. Interesting. This would tend to match up with the latest Mesoscale analysis from the Storm Prediction Center. DAYBREAK SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECIDEDLY WWD SHIFT IN MAX PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN NC/SERN VA. THIS COULD SIGNAL THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WRN ENVELOPE OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...PASSING JUST E OF HATTERAS AROUND 15Z THEN JUST EAST OF NORFOLK BY 18Z. THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE AND THE 03Z SREF GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CORRECT. This will prove to be make or break for eastern PA, Philly Burbs up to LHV and up to Scranton. If this thing tracks even 30 miles west of the forecasted guidance, it impacts literally 6 million more people. What a pressure cooker of a situation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yak Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Pushing north in the last 90 mins Pushing north, yes, but dry air N & W of the big cities appears to be inhibiting any expansion west. Snow reaching Long Island before Philadelphia does not appear to be a good sign for most folks in SE PA, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It has commenced in the last 5 minutes here in Lynbrook to snow.,,,Game On Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The models have been spitting out much higher ratios than that. Also the intensity of the precip has nothing to do with the ratios. BUFKIT-based and model-based soundings were awful with ratios last winter. The three big storms in Philly averaged about 11:1 while BUFKIT was drumming up 15:1 in one of the storms, 14:1 average in another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Pushing north, yes, but dry air N & W of the big cities appears to be inhibiting any expansion west. Snow reaching Long Island before Philadelphia does not appear to be a good sign for most folks in SE PA, IMO. The models all have it happening that way. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 PDII? Ha...no...it actually looks alot like 1/25/00 although its displaced eastward quite a bit from where that was....the amazing arching band of precip from Cape Code all the way down to NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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