joey Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Loookie loookie My point being- these maps are totally erratic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...DE...NJ...EXTREME ERN PA...WRN LONG ISLAND...SERN NY...SWRN CT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261156Z - 261800Z HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND ONE INCH WILL DEVELOP NWD THIS MORNING...REACHING DOVER DE/MILLVILLE NJ AROUND 15Z...CNTRL NJ AND FAR ERN PA 15-18Z AND SERN NY...SWRN CT AND NYC AROUND 18Z. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THE HEAVIEST BANDS SHOULD EXIST IN A 30-40 MILE CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM NEAR MILLVILLE NJ-POINT MIDWAY BETWEEN LAKEHURST/TRENTON NJ-WHITE PLAINS NY THROUGH 21Z. DAYBREAK SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECIDEDLY WWD SHIFT IN MAX PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN NC/SERN VA. THIS COULD SIGNAL THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ALONG WRN ENVELOPE OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...PASSING JUST E OF HATTERAS AROUND 15Z THEN JUST EAST OF NORFOLK BY 18Z. THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ULTIMATELY EVOLVE AND THE 03Z SREF GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CORRECT. TO FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT BOTH SLANTWISE AND UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS MAY YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/DEEPER CONVECTION AS THE LARGE-SCALE PV-ANOMALY BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND. ..RACY.. 12/26/2010 ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI... LAT...LON 38897474 38597510 38507531 38567559 38837562 39167556 39517551 39827540 40087529 40387516 40687496 40957476 41247445 41447419 41547390 41677352 41727318 41517268 41377253 41147252 40867261 40717288 40517331 40267371 39907399 39727408 38897474 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2136.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 PLEASE STOP!!!! That was one of the worst days ever!!! Thats what the radar looked like that storm, this one luckily is coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM is slightly west from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM initialization: Pretty spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Can not really ask for a much better track for NYC and surrounding areas. Absolutely.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Thats what the radar looked like that storm, this one luckily is coming north. Its amazing how similar it is.....its because generally a system that produces that sort of orientation is rare because its either well offshore or does what its doing now and thats all, but in this case the system is able to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I just said this over in the main forum and it has be reiterated a gillion times by other knowledgable posters, but pressure fall maps don't tell you much aside from the fact that pressures are falling in a given location. It cannot accurately show where the LP center is (because by the time pressure is at its lowest pressure FALLS have slowed) and the movement is also nearly impossible to decipher, esp in a fluid situation such as this where the LP is going to be captured and pulled north or even NNW for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I just said this over in the main forum and it has be reiterated a gillion times by other knowledgable posters, but pressure fall maps don't tell you much aside from the fact that pressures are falling in a given location. It cannot accurately show where the LP center is (because by the time pressure is at its lowest pressure FALLS have slowed) and the movement is also nearly impossible to decipher, esp in a fluid situation such as this where the LP is going to be captured and pulled north or even NNW for a time. THANK YOU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Is long island going to get into the mesoscale banding? Looks like form eastern jersey to nyc, nassua and western suffolf look so any opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm onto surface, radar, wv and satellite but for those just west the SREF hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 A careful look at the SREF and NAM to me indicate as the SUNY MM5 did last night as well as the SPC discussion that a mesoscale band is likely to setup around the Hudson River a la 06. Not necessarily the strength but the orientation. And the NAM upped precip... I don't think that usually happens... on an on-hour run nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM at 12H matches this pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow the NAM went bonkers, what a crushing for NYC and surrounding areas of CNJ, NNJ and LI and is that 966mb I see? BLIZZARD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 this is as deep an 850 low as I have ever seen at this latitude (sans tropical systems)...anyone know of any that were deeper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM has 1.75" near Brooklyn. 1.50"-1.75" for most of NYC vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM has pressure down to 964 mb near the Cape by 12z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You can just tell but looking at the evolution of the radar where this is heading. the large scale banding is setting up and orientated SSW to NNE. Now it is a matter of how far east or west the SLP, 850 and 750 lows track and to what degree they stall or moving slowing east of NJ and south of LI. That will determine how far that band can back into us. The consenses is it settles in along eastern NJ to NYC Metro, LI and SE New England. The Deleware River may end up a critical line. All of NJ should end up 6-12" with the least potentially being in extreme western parts of northern NJ. Eastern PA probably also reaches warning level snows but this is more up in the air. Normally waking up and seeing this radar its a dissapointment but knowing the specifics of how this is expected to unfold it is pretty much all going according to plan. IMBY personally I expect ~8-12". Could I get into some of the better banding later this evening and tonight? I think so or at least on the edge of it. Of course with such intense banding being on the edge can also mean a much lighther area of snow over me. Probably will be some pretty signifcant gradients in the final accumulations. Jack pot probably somewhere from NE NJ SE NY SW CT to LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM at 12H matches this pretty well That Mesoscale banding, it draws a line right over Western Nass Cnty, will this be 2.06 redux or can Nas Cnty get in on the action this time around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow at the Nam. It seemed to follow the SREF. Its wetter then the SREF. Which is great news because SREF is 3 hour older data then NAM. Great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Its amazing how similar it is.....its because generally a system that produces that sort of orientation is rare because its either well offshore or does what its doing now and thats all, but in this case the system is able to come up the coast. Well...in 1989 did SPC have NYC highlighted for mesobands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Obs: Richmond Hill, Queens, NY 9:15am Temp: 27.5F DP: 18F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Zoomed in 12z NAM. 1.75"-2" for almost all of NYC's boroughs and parts of Jersey. 1.50"-1.75" for eastern Jersey, SWCT and all of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'll remind everyone to post obs in their respective obs threads... NYC area for OKX land, E PA/NJ/DE for PHI land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 12Z NAM tightened the gradient on the western edge significantly. Upped total for me. I still hate being on that gradient, but at least I seem to be on the good side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Zoomed in 12z NAM. 1.75"-2" for almost all of NYC's boroughs and parts of Jersey. 1.50"-1.75" for eastern Jersey, SWCT and all of LI. That is one helluva tight gradient across SE PA...20-30 miles separates 1' from 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Zoomed in 12z NAM. 1.75"-2" for almost all of NYC's boroughs and parts of Jersey. 1.50"-1.75" for eastern Jersey, SWCT and all of LI. If you compare this map to the NOAA warning map you can understand why they went with BLIZZARD warnings where they did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 If you compare this map to the NOAA warning map you can understand why they went with BLIZZARD warnings where they did! Since a blizzard has nothing to do with accumulations, actually you can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 FOR NYC/ Western Nass cnty, will this be a straight duration or will there be lulls where precip lightens up from time to time? What are the QPF in total for JFK which I'm about 5 miles NE of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 FOR NYC/ Western Nass cnty, will this be a straight duration or will there be lulls where precip lightens up from time to time? What are the QPF in total for JFK which I'm about 5 miles NE of? New NAM has JFK in the 1.75"-2" shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.