Kaner587 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 That is not true, maybe the RUC is to the greatest extent west, but some guidance is further west than the GFS/NAM, such as euro, SREF, high res models. Stop looking at guidance anyways, look at what is currently unfolding, it is pretty obvious. Just even compare the current impacts of the snow in the mid atlantic to what some models were projecting, I am sure the obvious differences will be apparent. I think we can say with some confidence that the low will not be as far east as where the NAM and GFS have it, as I said before, it'll probably be a compromise between the eastern and western guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think you should all stop obsessing over the RUC..and take more note of the SREF...as SPC has done with their meso disco. The deeper, tucked in closer scenario is not completely out to lunch imo. DING DING DING we have a winner. Yes exactly man, the SREF is a very reliable model at this range and the SPC makes valid points which more importantly correlate with current trends at the surface and aloft as apparent through nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 That is not true, maybe the RUC is to the greatest extent west, but some guidance is further west than the GFS/NAM, such as euro, SREF, high res models. Stop looking at guidance anyways, look at what is currently unfolding, it is pretty obvious. Just even compare the current impacts of the snow in the mid atlantic to what some models were projecting, I am sure the obvious differences will be apparent. RUC and SREF are the only models showing very heavy banding reaching Eastern PA. I'll buy this, when the actual surface map displays a low pressure center significantly west of the GFS/NAM and EUR. Not pressure maps. Just cautious that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyS Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 While that may be true, pressure tendency is an important diagnostic/prognostic tool, and can't be disregarded because weenies wishcast. Believe me, if those pressure falls were further east, I'd be plenty inclined to think the low was also going to follow suit, And, of course, it has. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The SREF shows the exact same thing as the RUC. I only use the RUC up to 6 hours, beyond that it stinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The SREF does. Not one model outside the RUC supports such a track. That's what I'm saying. I don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The battles are starting early this time, before it even starts snowing...I can't wait for the battles between the 4 guys who all live in NYC while one says its flurries out and the other is reporting 2 inch per hour rates and they live 2 miles apart...I'm not sure they're all here anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 And, of course, it has. http://weather.unisy...=3p&inv=0&t=cur I wouldn't even look at that now. Look at the current. Plus on radar, you can see the precip backing further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 LOL. What are your thoughts regarding the debate we are having? I probably hate the RUC as much as DT hates the GFS...I tried using it last week and it was about 100 miles too far west, now I'm done with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I know not an Obs thread - but started snowing in at Jersey Coast - Ocean County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The battles are starting early this time, before it even starts snowing...I can't wait for the battles between the 4 guys who all live in NYC while one says its flurries out and the other is reporting 2 inch per hour rates and they live 2 miles apart...I'm not sure they're all here anymore. LMAO. Especially with a storm like this where conditions will be extremely variable from one location to another. Depends on where the banding establishes itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think you should all stop obsessing over the RUC..and take more note of the SREF...as SPC has done with their meso disco. The deeper, tucked in closer scenario is not completely out to lunch imo. Very true and I agree. Of course if the very close and tucked in scenario does play out then a dryslot issue could unfold for some areas. Note say I agree this will happen but it is possible but to the extreme of the RUC not very likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 23.6/18 RH is at 75, so a virga storm is not happening. Liking the impressive Omega values on the soundings, this is going to be a very dynamic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The battles are starting early this time, before it even starts snowing...I can't wait for the battles between the 4 guys who all live in NYC while one says its flurries out and the other is reporting 2 inch per hour rates and they live 2 miles apart...I'm not sure they're all here anymore. Luckily we have four ASOSes in the immediate NY metro area. I'll go with those for determining the intensity over the city. They're probably a little better judge of visibility, wind, and precipitation rate than a human. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I wouldn't even look at that now. Look at the current. Plus on radar, you can see the precip backing further inland. Good point. Do we really need this thread anymore? Not sure how its different from the obs thread at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 23.6/18 RH is at 75, so a virga storm is not happening. Liking the impressive Omega values on the soundings, this is going to be a very dynamic storm Yessir someone will see banding of 1-3 inches per hour. And maybe gravity waves.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I Luckily we have four ASOSes in the immediate NY metro area. I'll go with those for determining the intensity over the city. They're probably a little better judge of visibility, wind, and precipitation rate than a human. I had to use the Times Square Cam last year to know who was telling the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Good point. Do we really need this thread anymore? Not sure how its different from the obs thread at this juncture. Agreed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm having 1989 flashbacks looking at the Mt. Holly radar now...not that we're gonna see that again, but that is EXACTLY what the radar looked like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I I had to use the Times Square Cam last year to know who was telling the truth LOL well you can't really blame the average person for not being able to judge intensity, at least not to the standards used in official observations. People tend to over-estimate by a category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 http://www.stripercam.com/dreamsite/stripercam/default.asp cape may harbor white out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm having 1989 flashbacks looking at the Mt. Holly radar now...not that we're gonna see that again, but that is EXACTLY what the radar looked like... Could you elaborate please, I am not familiar with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm having 1989 flashbacks looking at the Mt. Holly radar now...not that we're gonna see that again, but that is EXACTLY what the radar looked like... This might help http://synoptic.envs...g/anim_nerc.gif This storm needs to get captured...it's moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 SREFs if anthing held serve or slightly west, moe qpf too. Most of C-NE NJ over the 1" band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Do you live on Long Island or something, If everyone would put their location in their profile, this question wouldn't need to be asked. It's been a pet peeve of mine for awile now. In a hobby that is so geographically oriented, why wouldn't folks include it so we know where they are located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Could you elaborate please, I am not familiar with that storm. ACY--a lot of snow NYC- very little SG can be more specific though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Loookie loookie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 RUC and SREF are the only models showing very heavy banding reaching Eastern PA. I'll buy this, when the actual surface map displays a low pressure center significantly west of the GFS/NAM and EUR. Not pressure maps. Just cautious that's all. The latest SREF is pretty much in agreement with the consensus track now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The latest SREF is pretty much in agreement with the consensus track now. Can not really ask for a much better track for NYC and surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm having 1989 flashbacks looking at the Mt. Holly radar now...not that we're gonna see that again, but that is EXACTLY what the radar looked like... PLEASE STOP!!!! That was one of the worst days ever!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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